Member Info for Plebleens

DB, out of touch with Market Profile, been at least 25 years since I did STA. proper old school Dow theory, without Bloomberg, where can I find a free chart?

Massive gasoline draw and weaker dollar kick started the recovery today. US oilers inc Talos on highs of the day. Mega reversal candlestick on the Brent…looking very likely we going to break that irritating short term resistance and get that close back above 365. Bye bye weak sellers. 395 top of channel to aim for….for those day traders out there …should come quick once we breach.

Rookie , draw a parallel channel, using the lows from 7th, 14th, 25th Jul and 4th Aug and you see the uptrend in place, with the top of this channel somewhere 390ish in the short term. The monthly long tailed monthly hammer candle was also beautiful and the bullish RSI divergence. All pointed to a bottom and change in sentiment. Still closing above The 26d ema , which has just crossed the 50d MA, which works as a great signal on the HbR charts. Just the minor issue of closing above 365 , which poked thru a few times today but feels like a lump being sold around there (noble?) and lord knows why with the results unlikely to disappoint, with wft plan having some meat put on the bones. Once that clears it’s an easy add to get top of the channel , then to the 420-30 next resistance area. Ultimately have 668 high from Mar 21 to aim for and the gap to fill at 1216ish from Mar 2020!!!!

EIG need an out so can’t see anything too negative for them to announce. Summer maintenance and higher capex may disappoint a few peoples projections but possibly countered with reserves upgrade…will add a trade with a 365+ close. China oil usage upin Jul; unl and ho charts also turned this week. Oil products will be burnt for power to replace Nat gas this winter , propping crude up further, but the lack of spare capacity is the killer

NStabz, what’s the downtime and maintenance schedule been like this summer? Any of it shortened , to allow the gas to keep flowing to Europe in the low season?

To correct that poster, they only had just over 2bn tax credits left last time I spoke to IR…still a big number left to offset, once the wft shafting has been taken care of. Ed Davey , give me strength…..retrospective taxation…that’ll work, not.

Really need a close above 365 to confirm the offload is done…really poor execution by what must be the inexperienced junior on the desk….could have scale up sold, whilst all the oilers catching a bid….especially with Brent looking like it wants to test 100 again…properly chickennlicken risk taker…one thing for sure that the harder it is to break, the bigger the breakout…looking for the top of the up channel, now above 390, that started at that 298 turning point…

Seems to be an offload being worked around 365. Failed here 4 out of the last 5 sessions. Once it breaks, clear air up to the top of the up channel that we been bouncing around in the last few weeks. 388ish very short term target once the resistance clears

…..difficult read that jobs figure as on one hand economy is doing well, adding jobs, inflating wages and keeping oil demand up…but just means fed will have to try harder to crash it , pushing up the dollar and making commodities expensive…

But today is all about profit taking after a 10% drop this week. That’s a lot of lost revenue for the Kremlin to make back….wonder if those turbines will ever turn up? Also Rhine is at critically low levels…massive product shortage through lack of barge traffic…another major diesel spike on its way , not what you need with planned gas to oil switching and trying to build stocks ahead of the winter…oil will duly follow , as Chinese refiners will be ratcheting up as the margin is too big to ignore…just whether Xi allows them any export quotas. Europe well and truly …,

Hbr also in a nice parallel channel up with numerous bounces off support. Top of channel cuts in just shy of 380 for the short term move…

The weekly profit take on Brent should give crude a decent pop. Dangerous to stay short over weekend with Putin losing 10% of his oil revenues this week…?

Talos up 12% and hbr tends to correlate well with that share on the bigger moves

Brent chart is very overdone. Major RSI divergence - bullish signal, combined with profit taking… bottom pickers delight for the brave…

360 finish here and the 26d ema remains intact?

And importantly closed above the 50d ma and the exceptional monthly hammer candlestick, with massive tail. Doesn’t feel like it, but the sp actually finished up for the month. Some great chart signals to build on. Chevron up over 8% on results…sign of things to come here, with plenty upside surprise, another tranche of buybacks announced and the cynic in me very much thinks we are due a reserves upgrade…well how else are they going to get rid of the pe overhang? ….only publicly listed trading method to reduce the eig fund holding…..good weekend all

It’s expiry today, so front month is largely irrelevant . Think about that rollover gap, the October contract has to fill…

50d MA at 3.625ish capping this morning, but the main downtrend was broken 2 weeks ago, RSI bullish divergence and what looks like a perfect hammer bottom on the monthly candlestick. Onwards and upwards. The cushion of the old support 420-430 is calling, likely before results imo.

14 million swaps expire and cash settle on tomorrows close . Should be an interesting day….Buzzard coming our way ?

Agreed Bush,

Joined today, 1post , baseless ramp and a big sell order around 355/6…couldn’t make it up could you…juniors definitely on the desk today…in fact too many baseless ramps these days…good luck all genuine holders

Think we just worked out who Mr. Steve Cook is…. There’s a largish seller still capping the action at 355-56 area. Amateur execution level, must have left the junior on the desk again…

Clear sky now , (with no mind changing vapours) , above the 26d ema at 346. Previous breaks were unconvincing. RSI has momentum above 50 now after the major bullish divergence (trend changing signal 3 weeks ago) . Break those 3 recent highs at 355-356 area and have the 50d at 366 to aim for and then the major resistance band 385-390 . 430 the short term target. Structural downtrend has been broken. Close back below 346 and I back drinking dark crimson rosé again ;)

HBR are not going to counter any f the analysts numbers, whilst they are still lobbying hard to get some of the clauses changed. Not in their interest to show their hand yet, especially if a lot of the impact can be mitigated. 1-2 is a mighty spread. Leaves the share struggling for direction until the clarifications can be made...But as I have mentioned numerous times, the current FCF is phenomenal. Big redistribution to people who have skin in the fund and want to take some money off the table; with the only way to release capital being for the recipients to sell the only publicly traded element of the fund. Surprised Mr Cook, and Mr Blair's transferee are not pumping the board to get out at a higher price!.....under the threshold and so need no RNS, although Mr Blair would need to notify of any more direct sales. Still intrigued why no TR1 from NGHL.... maybe they waiting to get under 5% like GIC and Fidelity before filling in the necessary paperwork....Equinor nearly at all time highs...fffffs

Equinor results were outstanding, increasing extraordinary dividend and increasing share buy backs - Shell report tomorrow - assume the trend will continue. Winter gas already up 50p this morning, probably 600p/therm by end of the day….

Take out the tax on the hedged part of the production and the dark forces are more than balanced