Member Info for Plebleens

With 9.24% of stock out on loan, none of which shows up on the FCA short tracker, along with GIC exit have to assume some sort of m&a is incoming involving cash and shares….Taqa would surely just be a cash job, so something bigger? Neptune back on (plenty of uk exploration costs to be absorbed)? Not an ARCM job as debt reducing too quickly - anybody know what it’s changing hands at? Interim Trading update would be nice. Will call them tomorrow.

May Stock on loan went up to 9.24%. A lot of position to buy back, considering how quickly the debt is being paid off and oil likely to stay north of $100 for some considerable time yet. That Talbot development may get brought forward to Q3 22. Must be plenty of other projects in similar planning to offset a chunk of the tax levy..?

First hurdle is a close back above the 200d around 396ish and chartwise would be a good place to add…

Options guys run over by the ftse 100 retention. Dread to think where we would have ended up without it….onwards and upwards….

Also still think we just scraped in ftse 100 based on the mcap of the nearest ftse 250 rivals below the automatic drop point below the 110 rank, but not done a full sweep so not definite. Hopefully rubberstamped later by ftse Russell announcement..

I’m totally with you onedb, having had to drop some position below the 200d , rightly or wrongly I’ve added some margin and bought back around the 373, once the hourly candlestick started to perform. RSI way too low and very much believe we will end in positive territory with the daily candle now with a long wick. Maybe this was the third and final day of capitulation….onwards to retest the 200d around 396

Have got this wrong with the funds shorting it vs crude and gas length. Fully expect euro clear data to increased for May. But only so low this can go with the amount of cash it printing and back to major support (ditto enquest) The next leg up in Brent and winter gas above 250 more than covers the extra windfall grab… long wait til August but have to be brave on this…

Got stopped on Serica like yourself with a small I’ll timed trade but will be back in once the dust settles.

Oil didn’t crash either…July contract expiry with mega backwardation leaves a massive expiry gap for the august contract to fill…

The agendas on here are so funny at the moment, it’s like the guys from IG index are trying to get you trading around your positions!

Bullish engulfing, outside day candlestick…should indicate a turning point

Not confirmed yet, depends on how the likes of the man group , green coat wind uk , direct line group , frasers group etc performed. Tight and the low UT hasn’t helped with the final share dump…..down to the wire

Totally agree with you on the TA and back above the 200d key to rebuilding the chart

Sekford - you really think that a pure upstream uk oil company wouldn’t hedge - hardly got the balls of Scott Sheffield. Hedging keeps wages paid, allows the capex To be budgeted for and essential to all producers especially with the cyclic nature of oil. Despite the mega backwardation the new hedges are still achieving substantially greater numbers than the ones rolling off the treasury book adding to the fcf, along with lower interest bill on the debt. Crude above 120 and gas above 250 in a large swathe of the curve should more than cover the dagger of the windfall tax inflicted upon HBR. Maybe have to forego share buy backs for now but debt free in 12 months is no small achievement.

Fund shorts clearly can’t take this any lower so will have to reduce. Really irritating playbook .

Ftse 100 survival would be a bonus

Actually reading the ftserussell website review cut off is tonight with results published tomorrow and effective from jun 20th

I stand corrected, had June 1st in my head…

HBR also has the in our out ftse 100 on its back for the next 2 trading days. Was 3 places above the automatic drop zone on Fridays mcap. Options players will be all over it irritatingly…ultimately the oil and gas price rules the roost though.

Sekforde - why would all the hedges drop off? They just get relaxed at better numbers, guaranteeing better income. Not quite as bold as pioneer resources…

Looks like the funds have gone for the old playbook of hedging oil and gas length by shorting producers ( not integrated companies as refining margin is rocket fuel) , with the wft, the icing on the cake….but with the equities stupidly cheap now and back on support and the EU oil embargo 2/3 in place, and gas curve above 200 for nearly a year out now, why bother having the hedge…imagine next weeks euroclear data will show a peak in shorts for May

200d holding so far and RSI sub 30…screaming out for a bounce on those signals let alone the price of the underlying commodities….in the 3rd of the 3 capitulation phases as stops get triggered…should get a decent spike from here if the techs play out.

Jeff - have no tech stocks…was short nas recently but since removed

Vietnam? Im sue somebody on here will dust him off again, hey Jeff ;)

Also think there is some options gamma at play, as well as the usual capital protection triggering stops

200d MA at 395ish…boy I didn’t think we’d see it for a long while, but good an area as ever to bounce from.

Uncertainty of how long the money grab lasts, and likely delay any plans of a buy back but the oil price isn’t coming down soon with higher lows building to take out the 2008 high. The veterans of the industry are all still long.

Capitulation will end with a spike up, usually on the 3rd day

Hedging is dynamic, the banks don’t just sit on the other side, the position is passed out into the wider market if it doesn’t fit their prop book or matched up against consumer hedging (airlines, shipping refining). Don’t get me wrong they still take a generous cut and trade around the positions as well as keeping a tight rein on the margin calls…but wrong to say they sit unhedged on the other side…windfall tax on banks has to be in the pipeline once the interest rates ratchet up a few more notches ..sadly not American banks

Plenty of tax credits to eat up as well…worst should be over