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….with Dec 22 gas about to print 500p/therm….

Probably also relevant for Enquest and Golden Eagle

Bank of America is handling the sale of the $3b worth of CNOOC NSea assets…Harbour , NEptune, Waldorf and Ithaca all ‘likely’ destinations…(obviously Buzzard would be the perfect fit and also a great asset as it very much helps price the Dated Brent quote depending on the percentage blended into the Forties pipeline…

With roughly half of the swap position expiring on Friday suspect that this has more to do with M&A activity than the bank building a position. The SOL position also started building from April, just after the CNOOC announcement .

Thoughts?

Bays,

Bloomberg terminal May have the data, but think the SOL is a monthly average number.

The BOA holding needs some more digging. Remember GS and MS used to have swap positions in the old PMO days and have to think they’re a hedge against a client position. Interesting that 1.5% has a cash expiry this Friday…

Harbour and Neptune have a round table meeting with Kwasi tomorrow without the majors present. Still lobbying hard on the disproportionate revenue hit to the hedged upstream companies. Small Glimmer of hope for a minor amendment….

Shell reports Thursday…record refining margins will equal record quarterly profits, yet another advantage of the integrated Oil companies

If they are disposing then there should be a TR1 on the way, at least til they get under the 5% mark like GIC and FMR, which I still have yet to find the definitive answer as to whether they need report at 4% and under 3% being foreign entities? Like our good chairman they have 4 days to declare….

Deeply frustrating this selling pressure, but better that some of these entities are out the frame. Also with the first 200m buybacks likely to have almost been fully finished by results day, expect another tranche to be announced soon after, as the price still needs to be propped up for further disposals. The increased Tolmount and Jade production will add some serious dollars to the q2 numbers and wouldn’t be surprised by some reserves adjustments, plus some projects being moved forward to offset some of that windfall gift that keeps on taking…. likely some Maintenance and asset downtime that need to be taken into account, but the fcf should be phenomenal …

Go on Twitter and you’ll find a decent amount of green bile and guardian also wrote an article…she was up infront of the committee on Weds afternoon with representatives from shell and Bp.. the money is definitely rolling in, but difficult to shout from the rooftops after being singled out for so vehemently opposing the levy…but the numbers will do the talking…it is also no secret that HBR is not transitioning to green and that the world cannot wean itself of fossil fuels any time soon…and the UK desperately needs energy security, especially with what is likely coming this winter

Yesterdays exaggerated price action was largely due to Linda’s performance infront of the Parliamentary select committee with Gardiner and Lucas twisting the knife. Possibly saying that we are incompetent for not knowing how to invest in renewables could have been worded a little differently….

Another close thru that 26d ema above the 348 level with pause for thought on a slightly indecisive candlestick; positive and momentum should carry the trend change through. RSI bullish divergence a few sessions ago was the signal and now pushing through 50. Bit of a no man’s land around the .350-365 area but 380 a decent resistance/ old support line to aim for. Serica update holds enough clues to the phenomenol fcf we should be expecting here and the financial juggling of projects in the NSea basin that will be used to offset the levy.2 more weeks til the first oilers report (next week for the US majors) but seriously think the analysts are totally underestimating current performance as they worry more about inflation; gas (Nat) price isn’t coming down anytime soon….

Auson,

Am sure none of them have a clear sight line now on this windfall levy, but hopefully by results time they can produce a Serica type statement. What was interesting was the hint that projects/nee investments already started in the nsea basin would be covered by the investment allowance , something that I thought had been ruled out and was only available to brand new investment….although could be wishful thinking by me. Overall though the current revenues should be more than covering the extra tax and the gas and oil prices are unlikely to drop substantially even if Putin gets dethroned…

Hopefully our less than stable shareholder having its strings pulled by its bond owners (recently defaulted on) chipping away by the ut…

My inference on the fact that they said they were carefully crunching through the numbers on what could be offset and brought forward, but it was detrimental to future investment decisions in the basin. The main point really was the current cash generation being off the charts and the gas curve going forward that many weren’t taking into consideration…plenty of confirmation bias as well my side ;).

Forgot to ditto Rookies 360 target for the day.

And yes the bullish RSI divergence from 2 weeks ago on the daily chart was top darts.

26d exponential moving average the key indicator to break to confirm the downtrend is over. Been capping the price action since May and tested 3 times (also was supportive on the move up). Started to turn trajectory today and need a close above 348 to confirm. Will add when it breaks.

Energy crisis prompts ESG rethink on oil and gas - Good FT article this morning, with fund managers having to reassess their positioning.

Also anecdotal but true, bumped into a senior upstream oil exec on my holidays and their take was that the analysts had seriously underestimated the current fcf being generated, let alone taken into account the winter gas prices in the high 400s. More than offsets the unfair windfall levy and some. Plenty of wiggle room to offset as well. The q2 results have major upside surprise potential in my view

Lot of wasted airtime on a very simple point. In the same way hbr joined ftse inbetween reshuffles, it exits Monday as the GSK spin-off enters the main list and hbr drops out. Was known last week and added to some of the sell off.

26d ema currently 348ish is the trigger point on the charts. Has been acting as a cap last few weeks.

And agree Auson, cftc report isn’t net short…just length been shed. John Kemp report is your go to as he analyses the movement each week. Lowest net length for a while…Biden will fail miserably in Saudi and notdstream will come back late…has to oil switching on the cards and physical oil premiums including dated Brent through the roof…all good for fcf

See you in the taverna tonight Rookie..

Amazing on how the news came out after the share transfer on the 52 week low….and the lowest amount of tax paid….fuel for the more cynical…but a comfort blanket of only good news to come as the price needs to rise to satisfy the “new “ owners. If some borrowed stock and pre sold ahead of the known transfer, potential that they’ve oversold too many with the 40% drop?
Just need that levy to flop now…

@schwee, they have already used closer to 2b of tax credits, well over 2b left.

Anyone know what time the reading of the energy level bill is today?

Kign, Linda only 64 , so still 1 more year to get that price higher and keep house husband Steve in cruises for the rest of his life. And more importantly volume below average at 3.8ish million.

There’s no short squeeze, as no shorts to cover. SOL cancelled by the transfer. But more importantly it’s in their interests now to keep the sp higher…even delay those timpan results a week…fcf hard to disguise and also rest of the sector including the US (so far unscathed by windfall tax) also been battered last 3 weeks. Not as sinister solely to hbr as some would like it to be…

Possibly capped , need to see the string of TR1s to see who they’ve been distributed to. Also a floor at 3 quid, as they not going to sell below b/e. Minimised the tax paid as well by transferring on the lowest price of the year - lucked out with the windfall levy and used the opportunity to do the transfer, with no doubt some mild manipulation. Hence they’ve made no bullish public statement about the cost to their profits yet. See if it goes through Monday in its current form , although likely have to wait til Aug to see the company response. Genuinely believe it won’t be as disastrous as people think with current and future oil and gas prices and new projects being bought forward…in their interests to get the price back up now. Still believe plenty was pre sold to cover those tax payments, hence the SOL creeping up last 2 months by the 8%. Mr. Cook must be looking forward to those Timpan results with his new found wealth…proper pillow talk

To be fair , all oilers are up across the board today - has Mondays windfall levy reading in Parliament been dropped amongst all the ministerial chaos?