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SOL crept up to 10.72% in Oct

The chart is perfect, closed the gap at 364, rally to the 420 pivot leaving a hammer candle. 360 a must hold now. If taconic and Och ziff capital management are hedging their noble group holdings exposure, they have plenty more shorts left in the tank to get to 8ish %?

The crypto capitulation spreading contagion for margin calls. Feels like a healthy correction on the way. Fade of the CPI hot data? Democrats still in control so agenda will be pushed through. Oil in the balance with Russian barrels out the mkt vs Chinas stringent no covid policy. Gas next years problem. Tricky macro picture and still itching to buy back here…but not now

Apologies Bays, but all the integrated and US oilers made 52 week highs on that false flag rally, and hbr, enq, tlw went backwards….so makes me nervous and with JPow throwing a big dousing of reality tonight on the markets tonight, think a top is in. Bearish engulfing on the daily dow and failed at some long dated averages to close below 200dMa. Currrnt balloon has burst. China locking down further even closing most of the area around apples factory….not good for markets…

Oil will be alright as Saudis have written a put and Biden also put a line in sand to buy back for the SPR. Diesel will be a bigger problem later in the winter. Nat Gas looking like s next year problem…just the demand hit to navigate…

But these shorters don’t appear to me to be the usual chancers. Possibly hedging their golden goose ? And if true they and EIG have plenty to offload into any strength…feels like another 200m buyback needed to buy some more time. And come q1 suspect oil mkts will be explosive. Biding my time to buy back in… 360 a must hold if they offload into tomorrows likely uplift

Och ziff capital management limited and taconic have a controlling interest in noble Group holdings after the restructuring. Likely they are hedging their interests hence the short position. If true they likely to keep selling into any strength, especially with no hint of a pivot from Powell. I missed buying the gap close at 364 on Friday but after tonight’s Fed statements, keeping my powder dry until China comes out of Lockdown nonsense . post mid terms think the Santa rally gets faded, or maybe we just had it….. Good luck all for tomorrow

Gap still to fill at 364.90

Can somebody explain why Taconic and (och ziff) capital management limited - both major controllers of the Noble Group Holdings, who look like they are managing their exposure to Hbr, are going to be ‘squeezed’ out of their position?

Board is fully overridden by the ramp and deramp crews, working in cahoots sowing doubt ahead of the results. Same pattern on the last 2 sell off, same characters….same posts! So bleeding obvious..

Looks like Oil market is going to take another few weeks to find traction. Biden doing his best before mid terms, China not coming to the rescue, mild weather, and still 7 weeks before Russian oil ban by Europeans..diesel stocks at 4 decade lows is the biggest issue - either drags the mkts into a deeper recession to cull demand or Chinese refiners take note and up runs ( but then naphtha and gasoline will build with no demand as petchems markets are floundering and driving season is over) . Recession argument currently winning ….and with Chev, Exxon, BP etc all near yearly highs because of downstream activities, the likes of hbr, enq, tlw, all very unloved…those results better be good….as the offloads here likely to continue.

Think it’s the bofa capitulation trade he talking about, saying that one dramatic low left in the markets to shake the last of retail out, drop inflation and cause Fed to pivot in 1h23 as worst is over , which then allows mkts to go bull again. The 10y starting to push big numbers again

364 gap on the chart I’d next support here otherwise back sub 350

There is no short squeeze on the horizon….but gas and oil will ultimately perform as long as central banks don’t crash the party. Analysts need a reserves upgrade (or merger), as cash generation is not currently good enough to perform like their peers, with the overhang snd weak holders still present

Too repeat from last week Capital fund management is likely Och ziff…along with Taconic…both Noble Group Controlling interest. Not rocket science . They locking in their risk

The gap is at 364 …not 375

And #amostreet….working in tandem with Pearls once more….. (yawn) …beyond transparent …you guys got called out before …must find the post. Somewhat easy prey if you are in the know that Noble Group creditors are potentially offloading? Funny what agendas turn up here. Be careful who you trust out there…I am flat and not bitter but something untoward going on here in comparison to other uK oilers, let alone their US contemporaries.

Capital management ltd possibly och ziff capital management (now known as Sculptor) another noble group ‘controlling ‘ holder like taconic. Weak hands trying to lock in maybe?

The rejection once more around 420 pivot was key. Now through 200d MA and just hovering on the 100d Ma at 396.50 as last support. Gap to fill down to 364.90 from mid August. Yesterdays mkt wide rally was a complete head fake and a massive one at that..Brent wants to test $90 again but should find decent support unless the indices look for that CPI low…messy disappointing week ….

I also dropped out, once that 420 level didn’t hold the second time….frustrating but cash preservation rules .

Approximately 8.66%

….Or Noble isn’t selling and Taconic are shorting to hedge their investment in Noble Group….and they must be close to EIG

If true then not M&A , which at current high oil and gas levels is a relief not to have to pay over inflated prices…such as the recent Talos deal

Think this is the far simpler explanation

Formerly a behemoth of Asia’s commodity trading landscape, with a market value of more than $10 billion, Noble has collapsed into a shell of its former self amid accusations of improper accounting -- which the company denies -- and billions of dollars in losses. The trader undertook a multibillion-dollar debt restructuring in 2018 which converted much of its debt to equity and handed control to a group of hedge fund creditors led by Taconic Capital Advisors.

Incoming …. with you Bays, Subterfuge comedy of the highest,… expect a deluge of irrelevant posts ….. oil fundamentals fortunately trump the negativity, but so transparent…

In the UK, Suncor holds a 29.9% interest in the Buzzard field in the central North Sea, which delivers more than 22,000 bpd net to the company.

It also has a 40% stake in the pre-final investment decision (FID) Rosebank development, for which operator Equinor filed key environmental paperwork just yesterday.

The company had reportedly weighed the sale of some Norwegian and UK assets back in 2020, later settling a £240m deal with EnQuest in February 2021 to offload a 26.9% stake in the North Sea’s Golden Eagle field.

Another sale process, covering Suncor’s wind and solar assets, is also reportedly progressing with a deal expected to close “early in 2023.

14th Sep 2023

Taconic Capital Advisors LP bought a new position in shares of Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE:SU – Get Rating) (TSE:SU) in the 1st quarter, HoldingsChannel reports. The institutional investor bought 45,000 shares of the oil and gas producer’s stock, valued at approximately $1,467,000.

Gives them more Buzzard if they are the target …then scoop the balance from CNOOC who are desperate to exit….

Hands up, which junior fund manager is still trying to execute a sell order ? Backwardation is higher than June, and with OPEC back in control, think we’ve found the oil price floor for now