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And Trump also just nailed the EU with a back foot trade war, which it is not in a great state to fight

Good luck finding a buyer for the bonds...the coronavirus is on massive cluster f for the markets. And Saudis selling oil at $7 discount to frontline Brent proper kick in the nuts. Trade and funds are no doubt Max short now. No doubt ruins Cheltenham for me as well! As I said yesterday Apple is still at 4q 19 levels. The pnl preservation trade hasn’t even got out the starting blocks. Interesting to see how the central banks coordinate today....still a seller of rallies

There really are some thick people on here showing their true colours. ARCM won’t be buying anything back in a hurry. The bonds are sub 50p and they need the short as a hedge. The bond price drop has dented their profits 2x their short.

Travel Ban Really going to screw oil. Looking more and more likely end up with a lockdown here and no doubt Trumptown. Kin black swans...

Hi Geo,

Still think all mkts are in sell rally mode, the demand just isn’t there and going to take time for shale production to fully collapse. Floating storage starting to fill for oil and products fully funded by the contango but once that’s full.,, yesterday’s rally was all fuelled by hope of a coordinated stimulus packages worldwide, seen nothing concrete yet... Fed meeting not til next week...,Russian oil companies meet with Novak today but that surely is to outline their plan to live with lower oil prices and what state aid they will need and when, if this price war continues....on the plus side weaker dollar and the Old OeC agreement is in place til the end of the month and also the fact that the funds are max bearish (will have to cover at some point) but IMO don’t think it lasts. Am still short ftse and Dow , few equity holdings. Apple etc still not felt the pain fully yet and caused the scramble for cash preservation. Cue a worldwide central bank pump!

Am afraid head over heart still but there will be a decent entry point in the next few weeks. Might take a little longer for a recovery this time imo.

As the west progressively heads to a brief but painful lockdown, oil demand disappears quicker than an erased AndyP post. There’s now too much oil in storage for A slow Chinese recovery to chew through.. eastern refineries cannot restart til they find homes for all the recent product builds. Russia will back down but not quick enough, as the virus grinds the world economy to a temporary halt. Contango is now your friend.

And have to agree with Andy on this but UK plc or Bp in this case will bail out Premier with an RBS like mortgage holiday to get them through this . No blame on PMO management for this mess, pure black swan event. There should /will be no RI and ARCM would be daft to close their short as the bonds are at the mercy of BP’s desire to keep another British company afloat through this tricky period in order for them to find a carer for the ageing assets (plenty of synergies for both) Just like Hugh Hefner lets hope they do a Pfizer and find a way to help bring some life back to the system....

IMO Circuit breakers will be in full affect tomorrow...Lehman’s mk11... exageratted by the free money in the system and the fact that the Dow /s&p still higher than last May. Profit preservation. Pmo rally 3rd time lucky ....

Bond prices will drop tomorrow, but whether the debt price gets back to 65 pence or lower in the pound is all about how long the Saudis make their point and if the hedges get Premier through the next 6 months. The price war is catastrophic for oil in the short term

For ARCM (and Andy). Shame it didn’t play out on a level playing field. ARCM won’t cover back their shorts as the hedge just about covers their debt purchases which will probably crash next week. At current rate they may not have enough hedge on..,,sad times

Yes , Saudis OSP numbers take oil into the 20s no doubt? Massive game of high stakes Poker. Stock mkts will no doubt correct accordingly... madness

Wasn’t that dull! Exciting prospects and performance solid last year. No excuses used on Covid19, as oil price is volatile but will revolt over the medium/long term. Addressed the Decom issue well. Just the elephant in the room about how to get a rights issue away when the share price has dropped nearly 40% since the announcement peak and in a short term bleak environment for markets. Although was quick to point out that they hadn’t decided on the split between placing and RI.

No doubt this will be a solid recovery play once the dust settles, just picking the reentry point...

Not often that I agree with Down but the demand side for oil is dire at the moment, (no flying, fewer shipping exports, driving curtailed, mild winter etc etc...) but it’s been massively exascerbated by the trade caught out with IMO 2020 trades...there was huge distillate bill play which has now epically failed. The stopping out has been huge already with no doubt more to come and will take weeks maybe months to come back , which will hot crude demand. The only caveats to the argument are the fact that OPEC will cut deep and shale hedges will run out. Should provide an opportunity to sell. Personally shorting the ftse and Dow after last nights surprise up ticks.

Great news from PMO but pretty much what we already know. The Unknown’s still need to be addressed . I can’t stress how important it is for any shareholder to dial into the analysts meeting today

Not to dampen your enthusiasm EC, as I often fly the bull case more than most , but the demand side looks like it has dropped off a cliff and plenty of oil traders seem to have gone into selling over drive (again not seen people with such bearish conviction since Lehman’s ). Jet Fuel demand was apparently only worse during the recession. China now full to the brim with products, as storage filling, so tea pots (not so tea pot these days) have stopped buying crude. OPEC will try their best next week but I think this will take a lot longer to ‘normalise’ than myself and many others thought...and that’s before the rest of the world stops flying , driving and manufacturing. Let’s hope the US doesn’t go into lockdown. Time to buy shares in Netflix and pasta! This is more a reality check for me and not trading advice, as the market will bounce back from this eventually. pains me to see ARCM with a get out of jail free card....all imho...sorry but head over heart for me

Back to the 113-115 holding area....?

Even More Venz crude offline with new Rosneft Sanctions and no end in sight for resolution of Libyan blockade. Just the minor issue of q1 demand destruction to wade through on way back to 60 dollars.

We went through this on the board back in December. Reality check. They own the debt at circa 60-70p in the pound so have made a packet on that, plus coupon value and any warrants. They own over 10m physical shares . With the short averaging low 70s plus cost of borrowing shares etc.. they won’t lose money (just profit banked last year) unless share price gets closer to £2. Stranger things have happened, but the VW and Tesla short coverings were fuelled by multiple parties competing against each other and in VW case not enough free float. The free float is getting bigger with the placing/ RI, just the argument about how they get their hands on it....everybody has a price, and doesn’t stop us taking out the yearly highs. Really need those Zama numbers soon to cause a few sparks...

Productivity lost in q1 will surely be more than made up for in the rest of the year as the virus scare abates? Solid Earnings from the previous quarter should also be enough of a buffer to corporate America...

Crude finishes on the highs for the day. Russia will show its OPEC + hand by the end of the week, after they’ve rebuffed the US increased sanctions on Venezuela. Libya and Nigerian losses already stemming the over supply and contango holding as storage buffers the short term unwanted barrels.

Few good sized trades in PMO today. Time for the Hyenas to feed on vultures, as the Institutions increase their bets against the validity of ARCM and its weakfish arguments? Tempting risk reward to force the shorts hand?

And lovely to see betrayed (evening members) so vocal on the TLW board. Can’t be long before The chuckle brothers let him loose on NMC to get the gamblers twitchy before getting the pennies back into oil....;)

One of the genuine bank/investment managers gradually upping their stake. They were 4.93 according to Premier Website on 7th and increased in the prior weeks. Tonight’s RNS shows them crossing the 5% threshold . Less and less retail in the top 10

Crude stabilising in the front end as contango deep enough to allow prompt distressed barrels into storage. Just need to see what the post virus ramp up from China brings and how quickly these stocks disappear....also OPEC still not shown their hand but personally believe worst is over.

PMO has a gap to fill around 110ish , before as I speculated last week we head for the 113-115 holding area, ahead of results day. Recent price action doesn’t feel like it’s implying a deep discount in the placing and still banking on the accelerated debt repayment and utilisation of the tax losses as the carrot for most to take up their placing and rights issue shares.

I’m not sure I totally agree on the underwriter having sole discretion , but all will be revealed in the next few weeks I’m sure . And no doubt clues will come from the ever increasingly desperate Posts from Brook Green PR the closer we get.

Few more days of slow down in new cases of the virus and I reckon the share floats slowly back up to the 113-115 holding area, ahead of the results.

Inevitable.....