Member Info for Plebleens

Nothing about being an amateur investor here, the fund managers need to rotate into reflation growth stocks to catch the next phase of the cycle. Unloved and undervalued for how long , before the investment case overrides ? Too much emphasis on the debt holders need to unload their equity. This equity dump easily cancelled out by oil fundamentals at the moment so happily being absorbed. Oil is tightly controlled by OPEC + , similar to the FED; waiting for those bargains may be a futile game...good luck all

Equinor, Total, RDSA. Repsol earnings all out this am. All well beating estimates....the June meeting can’t come quick enough for HBR. Apart from the environmental investment case, the sector looks undervalued on current cash generation. Refinery runs on the up, stimulus deal and demand back to near 100mmbpd by year end. ? Good Luck all

GS report overnight calling for $80 oil within 6 months as a surge in demand back to the pre-pandemic levels of close to 100mmbpd unfolds, as the economic recovery gathers pace. Massive barrier of resistance at $71.75 but enough to fire up the macros, and oil inflation has some way to go to catch up with metals and ags. Undervalued oil sector could do with a boost.
Good luck all.

Options expiry tonight....been hugging $66.00 all day long, where it seems to want price....yawn

Breakaway gap and bullish RSI divergence on the HBR charts also signs of bottoming for the Chartists amongst you.

Agreed slow burn and am not in it for the small penny moves. Been adding around these levels , as see the oil price helped by the reflation trade pretty much range bound for now on a slow grind up towards $70. Big driving season and middle eastern burn this summer enough to counter the short term COVID demand destruction in India and Brazil . Plenty of FCF, and should see some decent beats by the rest of the oil pack. Good luck all

1q BP results big beat adjusted net profit $2.63b vs est $1.51b. Exceptional gas trading and marketing results. Encouraging news for others in the sector, and should encourage investors back to the undervalued sector with current growth prospects. Oil held Key support again. Big driving season and Middle Eastern burn ahead this summer. Back to the Roaring 20s today.....?

Bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart, which is a positive to go along with oil holding support and weaker dollar.

Good Luck all

Be careful...... of the a.p crowd/ gk10 (rest of the Mondeo Reg from the m4 corridor ) etc. They may cost you a good entry if you think too hard.,... some people have been on life support far too long. Good luck all x hic

EC,

Israeli ship was yesterday’s news but on top of all the Houthi drone attacks makes it difficult to short the market currently. EIA upgraded 2021 oil demand this morning which was the real driver along with weaker US dollar as Powell only sees the spine in inflation as temporary. Market is fully supported by OPEC going forward but they have plenty of barrels to bring back to the market in a controlled manner along with Iranian oil on the increase and rig count in the US making yearly highs. Chinese demand should pick up post refinery maintenance as margin has improved, but not in super cycle stage. Break above $65.30 snd chance to grind up to $70 but but plenty of headwinds. So will be range bound for next quarter at least . But $60 base, all good got cash generation for HBR. Enjoy the summer once you get your entry points sorted

And just look at the statements from BP and Shell this week and the return to profit of their upstream units in Q1 for the first time since the pandemic began. BP even stating that it was reducing debt faster than planned at current oil price levels and might look to return share value through a return to share buybacks snd possibly reinstate some of the previous dividend. Another good sign for the E&P sector. Good Luck all.

Betting against OPEC+ in current higher price policy mode is like betting against current FED policy, no matter how artificial people think the price is being manipulated. Oil Market has a stable $60 base with a current cap around $65 and an impenetrable resistance at $71.75. Reflation trade adds to the recovery story. Good enough to see growth in producers for the next year. Good Luck all choosing your entry points.

Fwiw I’m back in with a hood few. Oil looks to have found its equilibrium in the $60-65 range with OPEC+ still very much in control to stop any price deterioration going forward and keeping price stable for now. The fact that they are tapering in the increased production is evidence that they see the recovery feeding through over the summer plus the Stimulus out of the US can only increase demand in the short term and EIA report showing slower US shale output recovery. Virus resurgence, lack of mobility and sluggish middle dist part of the barrel , plus hedging programs will stop the mkt getting too far ahead of itself. Iran barrels also a threat but not imminent. Stuck in the range and stability for the new company to build on going forward. 6-12 month return for some decent upside IMO

Sometimes right being the operative word but always myopic and like Henry the mild mannered Janitor ultimately lucky with the pandemic as the call came home to roost. Would have been interesting to see how it played out on a level playing field...? Seems to be positive re enforcement amongst the boards to keep this under pressure st current levels, which flys against the current oil fundamentals. OPEC like the Fed, have the equity markets, have Oil’s back. US infrastructure package helps . The pressure from the climate lobby is years in the making , the new entity has a window of opportunity snd in the low 20s upside odds seem good to me. Nee dawn tomorrow . Good luck all

First rule of stops and limits .....keep in front or away from the crowded trade levels. Too many people talk of round numbers 10p. 20p (even 100p in the emerald city) , why not 9.95 or 19.85 ....be first to execute and not one of many on the order book. Good Luck all

Steve,

Not been here for a while but followed avidly til I dropped out early COVID. Honest question but why do you have to repeat your view with constant re-enforcement? As Andy.P used to say, don’t get married to your view or try to find reassurance on these boards. Interesting times ahead. Good Luck

This is not about fundamentals any more. OTC feeding frenzy drives sentiment and as no underlying in the US they have to borrow shares from down under and the UK to cover the shortfall. Self fulfilling prophecy on eternal loop now (til the party stops) . MCAP irrelevant for the moment and weekend good news if it arrives will feed the loop, as there are more fresh buyers across the pond who only care about an increasing number rather than if it makes sense. Find a profit level you’re happy with , make sure it’s a little below a round number and have no regrets, as this is irrational exuberance at its finest. Good Luck all, proper get out of jail free card and another tick in the q1 21 surreal news stories.

Good scale down buy from here for me. OPEC have the oil market’s back and the 60-70 buck range seem the equilibrium for the rest of the year as demand increase matched by reduction in production cuts until the market is ready to come off life support next year. Good size producer now without the debt millstone. Can’t guarantee how the funds recoup their cash but not in their interest to crash the price either.

Medium term 20-30% return and look to double once the distillate margin part of the barrel returns to some normality / although need a few more planes in the sky. Next years hedging will also be at greater numbers as well. Dollar looks on the charge a bit of a headwind. Looking forward to renewing my relationship tomorrow in the low 20s

Been a while and possibly still a bit heart over head, but looking to get back into the new entity at current levels. The OPEC + meeting will rollover production cuts on Thursday and their push for a higher price policy will keep the dips shallow (caveat of the extra Iranian barrels finding their way to China and yesterday’s 25 year oil for investment deal that could derail the cartel further down the tracks) . But in the short term at least they have the market’s back and last weeks pullback will give them more fuel to their cautious approach. Managed money length decreased but is still at a decent number in oil contracts, as the macro inflation trade still dominates. US infrastructure spending will be colossal, supporting commodities although the stronger dollar giving commodities a bit of a headwind. Global demand recovery slowing a bit as Europe enters more lock downs and the aviation sector struggles, but there is plenty of pent up demand. Charts back above key level and personally see a push back to the $70 equilibrium. Last move had got a little ahead of itself.

The new structure of premier without the debt shackles (although not free of the creditors and shares to offload) allows a fresh start and in the low 20s see chance of getting a good few percent in the medium term. In the 30s and I will leave it alone. Let’s hope that they haven’t been forced to hedge too many barrels at lower levels. Good Luck all

The biggest problem for oil at the moment apart from the obvious demand destruction and eco warrior bashing is the US dollar. Flat price has been buoyed up by a weak dollar (also us stock mkts -no sheet Sherlock as the Fed pumps) Today’s strength in us dollar snd Brent breaking key support points to a correction back to a $30 handle; and Libyan news Doesn’t help but is a way off hitting supply, unlike the cheaters putting back their 2.3mmbpd production. OPEC won’t let it drop too far and playing the long game here as refinancing US shale becomes more difficult financially, and morally. Oil will recover eventually, it always does...just choosing the correct entry or re entry point here. Surplus shares will need to be absorbed and the appetite isn’t what it used to be, but the true cyclical money will need to go somewhere once the tech valuations and inevitable profit taking hit home. Hopefully I’ll be back here soon....