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Physical prices in the East ramping up on tight OPEC supply and dated Brent making a remarkable recovery. But the biggest standout by far are the gas and electricity prices as the European ( and worldwide) heatwave gathers pace pushing LNG prices to extremes. Didn’t move as oil plummeted. All good for HBR portfolio, shame they can’t take advantage with tolmount….and hope the extra production wasn’t hedged! Looking like a great reversal candle on the charts so far

Oil seems to have found a bottom from this 3 wave correction, with close back above 69 snd the 100d and also lovely hammer candlestick to boot. OPEC + extra supply not enough unless the UK experiment in a full reopening of a vaccinated country fails to deal with this latest wave. Board getting bashed heavily today with paid negative posters…have bought more sun 300 but missed the stop out earlier. Prepared to wait this out as don’t see oil fundamentals capitulating from here or the charts. Back above 72 snd full steam ahead. Be careful of the naysayers

The need for the rest of OPEC to agree the deal news was out well before the drop. This is DOE related. The 22d EMA around 74.60 should hold this move before the dip to buy crew take it back up into the close. Iranian nuke deal pushed further back and continued lack of response from shale will keep the rally intact…strong dollar and new waves of Covid still the main worries. Jet recovery may take a bit more time….the bullish engulfing candle on the HBR daily chart and bounce off twice tested support area close to 3.50 should be enough to keep the short term traders happy back to 4.20 area. Good Luck all

4.30 bst for the stats….6-7 million draw anyone?

Pearls , you are bit half full again today - interesting message , since deleted , by your old work mate last night on a few other boards. Surely that sort of stuff doesn’t happen here?

Nice outside day on the daily candlestick forming and bounce from the channel support. Well defined buy signal imo for a bounce back to the top of the channel at 4.30ish. Enough to solve a few of the averaging levels of the bickering classes

Takes away some of the uncertainty and original proposal was never enough to cover the current deficit so bullish on paper. Just a few resurgent Covid issues, stronger dollar and a tightening monetary policy in China to overcome so likely treads water until stock drawdown bites harder….before next leg up to 80 dollars.

Good quarterly prelim update from Shell this morning, showing big jump in revenue, good news for others in sector. Also near perfect bounce on the channel bottom on the charts enduring dip to buy trade remains. Good Luck all

To be fair it’s the whole sector and the lack of fund management love as ESG policies force the old guard to make some expensive transitions and get blown off course. The FCF will have to override this at some stage, with reinvestment in cheap assets or the share buyback that got debated last week…

Big jump in the Saudi official selling prices. Looks like they don’t see any big volumes coming back soon - although you be fair the tapering was only for a minor 400kbd hardly touching the sides increase in August…Will take something big to knock this VLCC of a rally off its current course….

The #JMMC has ended without reaching any agreement. As I gather, the JMMC meeting ended on a bitter deadlock. The #OPEC+ ministerial meeting hasn't begun yet. There’s so so so much length in this market if this goes belly up. A stop out would be devastating on a Fri night before a bank holiday. Surely this is not the end of OPEC……? Time to buy those puts….

Also get Cairns arbitration out the way and the mega merger could excite a few M&A types….been a while since we’ve heard that rumour….

The tapered increases upto 2mmbpd between aug and Dec is not enough to touch the current supply deficit which is somewhere currently between 1.7-3 going into q4 and OPEC say 5 by year end. The Iranian dealings have stalled to an undetermined date and despite 65 mmb of floating storage and ability of 1 mmbpd increase gradually when back is still not enough to balance the mkt hence the 2 dollar jump on the rumour yesterday. Agree with your $80. The big outlier is the UAE with its shiny nee exchange and new production coming on stream going lone wolf and breaking up the Cartel. …at the moment they are only asking for a rebase and an extra 700kbd. Stranger things have happened

Personally would rather buy some cheap accretive assets off those desperate to leave the NSea behind then. MOL would be an easy start….The fact that OPEC are extending the current production quota deal (assuming the UAE don’t collapse the cartel today) to year end 2022 rather than Apr 22 implies intention of higher for longer pricing policy, with only a possible stronger dollar and a virus resurgence in the Northern Hemisphere winter to cause any head winds. I’d take the FCF from already producing assets ahead of a buy back. Or maybe dip their toe into Alaska again……;)/

Also need to know whether they’ve hedged as dated Brent or Br swaps. The physical premium s are decent premiums at the moment to the Brent futures price and extra free cash for the company’s North Sea production.

As below gradual increase up to 2mmbpd from Aug to Dec is the proposal Not enough unless they front load it as current deficit is near enough 2 growing to 3 in the 4th quarter. Mkt reacting accordingly. 3 meetings to get through this afternoon. 80 dollars here we come if it gets rubber stamped

OPEC + proposal of an extra 2mmbpd drip fed between Aug -> Dec will not be enough….

Hold on to your hats and your oil shares as $80 oil looking more of a reality

Iranian talks delayed til undetermined date, official say

Today’s pre OPEC meeting delayed til the full meeting on Thursday as major differences still exist. 0.5mmbpd will not be enough

$80 dollar oil may be coming sooner than we think….

Energy best performing sector in the S&P this year. Fund shift into cyclical stocks as still look undervalued compared to growth stocks. Managed Oil funds are getting close to max bullish. Long to short ratio high but more on reduction in shorts so still room to the upside. OPEC jtc meeting still playing the drum beat of caution and likely will under deliver barrels that the market desperately needs to avoid huge deficit. HBR can only be artificially suppressed for so long. Gap closed to the downside, bounced off support and the chance of a double bottom. Looks like somebody seeing the signs mixed with a little FOMO. Good luck all

Oh and forgot to say as many of us know in this share a 10% move is nothing to sweat about ….just provides more opportunity…not exactly a vehicle for fresh shorts these days or a place to own the debt …