Member Info for Plebleens

USO fund only rolled 20% of its length into July so still have a huge June position to roll next month ( mooted to be 20% of jun WTI open interest). It will no doubt get front run . Retail investor run over until they liquidate the fund . Jun will struggle as well imo.

-33.00

EC it’s not really a quality issue. It’s a storage issue and the failings of Cushing as an efficient pricing hub, exascerbated by the Saudis lowering the OSPs to Asia and high freight rates (as boats being used for floating storage) means the mid west barrels can’t get to market and nobody wants to take delivery as the contract expires. Big roll down gap for June, looking at the charts...keeps me firmly on the sidelines

Grips, just to make sure you’re looking at the correct numbers you need to take 9-10 dollars off the Brent futures price to roughly get where the prompt physical North Sea barrels are trading, give or take a little for quality. The hedges in place are hopefully against Brent swaps rather than dated Brent swaps.

Irrational exuberance sprinkled with Trump Dust....physical oil still very much unloved

And just to put things into perspective, dated Brent priced at just above 18 dollars yesterday. The market for physical spot barrels is dire. 10 dollars under June Brent futures. Hedges are a life saver for PMO

Force majeure on what? I don’t think Carcher is termed up . Indonesian gas possibly,. And also can we shut this misunderstanding of hedging conversation down. Hedges are financial (paper) transactions that are distributed throughout the market. The banks pass on the risk or match it up with consumer hedges (which are currently a rare commodity) . Lower for longer is not a great situation to be in, no consumer hedging, storage full so fewer time spreads to buy, spec longs get destroyed by the contango and back end gets sold on any rally to keep the producers alive...killing the mkt slowly and front drifts lower. Cuts don’t equal demand destruction, so in limbo til the world economy opens up again. Pause for thought and Good luck however you trade it

Just be careful buying into oil too soon, the contango will destroy your capital very quickly unless you can own the physical and store it somewhere. The etfs that went long are getting crucified. May/jun ti was over -7.00 at one point today,...contract roll will proved somewhat expensive....more prudent for the banks to leave it in the ground...,.good luck to the brave

Oil markets are not open today..... but no reason to close the gap from any of the fundamentals....backend hedging caps the Market next week and front end still on beach head

Donald kicks the Labrador and G20 falls into line....not so fast ...the supply situation is A cluster fk...prompt crude is deeply discounted, the big trading houses are still bearish ,,the majors are fighting for survival, PMO will be absorbed into the system. I’m like the Oiluser and out and sitting on the sidelines. Demand destruction 26mmbd currently as per Vitols main analyst and Goldman’s. Look at India and see how the oil useage has evaporated. Storage getting full, freight expensive, and we barely scratched the surface on consumer change of habits .... long way to play out .....personally see crude back in the 20s next week, as the cuts are just too far fetched to implement and front end sentiment so negative...pmo traders making decent cash last few sessions but Tuesday looks a whole new ball game.., candlestick awful yesterday. Proper example of buy the rumour sell the fact...good luck

Stokie,

If you opened up the Brent position as a dfb (daily funded bet) you’re getting charged each day for the contango in the market. Dfb is like holding a hybrid July position which converges with the June contract each day towards expiry. If you hold the outright monthly contract you won’t pay the daily charge but if you rollover the contract at month end it could cost you a chunk....may/June went off the board at over -350 contango, which would have been the amount per point you would have been charged

BaySil, you accused me of having cabin fever last week....;). HNY . Deus.

With demand destruction at 15-20 mmbpd and Chinese spr space for only 80-100mmb and pretty much everywhere full, this is pretty much a headline driven rally...Saudis will only co ordinate a cut if the rest of the G20 cut, which will be impossible imo to agree on. Russian fields don’t shut down easily as incredibly hard to get these legacy fields back up again afterwards, hence Putin rebuttal. US production will shut in slowly as the bankruptcies kick in, which leaves the Saudis as usual shouldering the burden of the cuts..., freight is so expensive that NSea barrels hard to arb out the region. Physical barrels struggling to find homes. Still a massive cluster fck out there in oil fantasy land do Be careful dipping your toes into this market...it’s not out the woods yet

Contract expiry....may/jun contango -3.23....funnily enough happens every month...,

One of the few times li agree with you down.....physical diffs will take the brunt, dated Brent is over 4 dollars under front line Brent. Carnage . N sea barrels like the ginger step child as freight is so expensive with floating storage in mass demand. Massive con tango provides some relief, but front heading under 20 imo as refinery’s shut down. Sad times

Cleveland = levels!

The irony of the situation is that ARCM lose more if iPMO go bust as the assets will no longer be worth true value in a fire sale and they cannot afford to take over and run the company at these Cleveland of crude. Massive cluster fk. Worst case scenario by SF one analysts that we lose 20 mmbd of oil demand for next two months....the airlines /shoppers/hauliers also have hedges to unload at huge lossses . The banks will feel the strain as unlikely to be enough credit default swaps In place to cope with the industry downturn.

Sadly I reckon the oil rally will get sold into , the demand destruction, estimated To be over 10mmb/d+ is (10% of world demand) is beyond imagination. PMO should survive as long as they don’t proceed with the acquisitions, and Henry the mild mannered janitor will not cover his shorts whilst the bonds are in such a precarious position. Cluster fk. The oil mkts are dysfunctional at the moment, be careful as Enno sometimes says

Mkts are still in sell rally mode. Most of Fridays goodwill rally has been erased...,Dow weekend futures off over 800 points and ftse down 300. Still believe this gets a whole lot worse before the tide turns. Filling the SPRs B last 90mm barrels won’t save the shale industry

ROS, Repeat from earlier..why would ARCM close their short? They need protection, against the debt they own. They have plenty to lose if PMO goes bust. The extra short theory doesn’t stack up. Need to probably look at Baillie Gifford. Bonds now priced at 45p.
Oil in 20s if US goes into lockdown. No airline is solvent at these passenger numbers, ditto holiday companies etc.., Saudis mean business, look at how many boats they’ve chartered, freight rates have doubled AG/west overnight

Type FCA short positions into google. Spreadsheet updates 3.30-4.30 most days