Member Info for Plebleens

50 day and 50 week MA providing some support round 64.40 in Brent. Might dip my toe in...

Use the fca short positions download, always updates first. W box down 0.25 and ccl 0.08

Indeed Whitebox and Connor Clark Lunn reduced decent chunks tues and weds.....last man standing appears to be...

Anybody think that they’ve got the last 2.3% by the way the share price is reacting today?

I’m on similar lines as oiluser; the share price would have behaved completely differently if this was a desperate move and not value added to the bottom line. Lot of mind games on the boards last night to drop the price.....

That’s not true on the short reduction going below the reporting threshold level. Look through previous reduction reports. Some show 0.49 or recently ttinternational went to 0.34. It does appear that they have completely closed it, as shows going to 0.00

And a mere 75ks worth of PMO1 bonds traded yesterday at 1.04ish....very low volume trade. Think most will be happy with the decent coupon value of a now more interesting and financially stable company

Few morning thoughts

Does anybody really think that buying $625m worth of good quality instant cash generating assets from BP is really the sign of a struggling company about to go under....?

And now that PMO has released the news it can contact the 8% retail bond holders with the new terms, many of whom will be shareholders...even questor at the telegraph....I think I’d take those odds of securing more than 2% of them ...?

And conspiracy theory...Ukrainian owned. Boeing 737 with technical difficulties....Boeing shareholders need another 737 problem like a hole in the head, as does corporate America and the Dow Jones....signs of asymmetric war? Ball back in the Americans court now, hoping that there was no collateral damage at the airbases...

Onto more mundane matters, looks like decent exports keeping crude drawing

#Crude -5.9 Mil
#Cushing -1.0 Mil
#gasoline +6.7 Mil
#Diesel +6.4 MI

Welcome back Ros1

And 8% in the hands of retail bond holders.... Great news

Well done to all those who ignored all the naysayers, and Stood by the company and it’s ambitions. Finally getting to fully utilise those tax credits in a more timely fashion and join the 100kbd plus crew, and then SL comes on line. All round great news, and love the way they surprised the mkt with an early announcement. How and at what level do those shorts close....,, oh Zama proceeds still to come

The analysts call will be well worth a listen me thinks

And I repeat the post from earlier the fact that they are having to buy more debt in the secondary market means the other debt holders aren’t aligned with them.... but I can’t argue that everybody has a price....just there’s a better trade out there than selling them the debt, depends on how the Chinese walls work..? Can’t believe that whitebox are still around....ride on time?

I know, wonders will never cease, remember the time he had a whole thread removed within 5 minutes of me posting....,(took me ages to rewrite it) or the time he threatened me behind the power of the internet....how things have changed...must have found 30 quid down the back of the sofa .... bet he wishes he’d fallen in love with crude, would be worth a fortune now with the current backward roll

I think the most telling point about the article is that by the fact they are trying to buy debt up in the secondary market, it means that the other holders don’t hold the same view on combining and blocking the refinancing. Also how much extra this debt is costing them compared to 2 years? Surely if I held some debt , I’d be holding onto it and buying shares in the market , knowing that the short will have to be covered at some point?

From what I’ve heard they already own over 10m physical shares, so have hedged out some of the short.

Not really a surprise but ARCM own physical stock and hence why trying to find out how much and how the position is changing and why it doesn’t net off vs the short...Any help appreciated

And hence my question about access to a bbg terminal

Agree that they probably bought the debt at 60 or 70% of coupon value and they getting the yield, but there has to be an inflection point at some level....

But still puzzled by how the short gets covered if there’s no equity raise and the refinancing goes without any issues? The exit strategy is usually the main problem on big Long term trades....

As mentioned earlier, I think it’s very unlikely they will raise money to pay off debt but doesn’t stop any raise in the future to buy accretive assets that utilise they $4b of tax credits.

Anybody got access to a Bloomberg terminal to see how many shares ARCM own currently?

He has told you . Sell Zama and refinancing done this month hopefully? Why do you need an RNS?

I very very much doubt shares will be issued to pay down debt, but doesn’t rule out a raise for accretive production purchases, to utilise the $4b worth of tax credits some time in the future. But wtfdik....lowly pi...good year ahead I hope ;)