Member Info for Plebleens

In recent weeks many have revealed decent sized positions in this imo investable company. I suggest rather than rely on the gossip/conspiracy theories that float around these boards, people pick up the phone to Elizabeth or Natalie . May Help calm a few nerves...... You’d be surprised to see who has an unlikely position on the share register if anybody cares to look closer. Good Luck all

The counter to that conspiracy theory Oiluser is that the Saudis had to do a deal with the Kuwaitis to unmothball the neutral zone, as the Sept attacks severely affected the 12 mmb ‘Max output’ and buffer zone for any supply disruptions. Any reataliation , such as a proxy war in Iraq or a Hormuz disruption takes oil back into the 80s/90s and a drag on economic growth and a gasoline spike in the US heartlands ahead of the election campaign.

On another relevant note, what happens if there’s no block to the refinancing?

It reads more that they need supply security now more than ever after September attacks and the rest of the system was under strain when they tried to make up lost output. They have no reason to pump more after stating the extra cuts at the Dec meeting. This is to protect and justify the Aramaic IPO and bring another neighbour into any proxy war, should there be any future installation attacks /disruptions

Physical Brent players slammed the window for some cheap pricing in. Looks exaggerated to me and an opportunity with all the Middle Eastern tensions...recovery this afternoon when US are in?

That Saudi article reads as quite bullish ? September attacks no doubt caused more issues than is being reported....

US air strikes yesterday not helping the tinder box of the Middle East. See the US embassy in Iraq just been evacuated

Feb Brent contract expiring with a decent rollover gap due to extreme tight Nsea physical market and steep bsckwardation. March contact up 30ish on the day at 67.20 and is the new front contract. Should roll up, with current prompt demand for good quality sweet barrels.

Let’s just remind ourselves that N Sea physical premiums have been pumped up in the last quarter with the run up to IMO 2020. Dated Brent has seen steep premiums over headline Brent and Catcher barrels have been seen $3 premiums to dated Brent on some transactions. All a Brucey bonus as this is extra revenue above the hedged levels.

Zama money should be great, Charlie 1 hopefully will be another New Years boost, but the proper rerate comes on the back of the refinancing, which could well be earlier than many think....? So much to look forward to in this next update..

The senior credit notes are close to being paid off, the rest of the debt is seen as equal. And to correct another poster , Henry only has 15 % of the debt.

The Petrobras story was originally a Reuter’s article from 10am on Friday so is already in the market. No decision til March by which time the Zama sale would have been announced and refinancing will have been done.

They are not going to do an equity raise to pay down debt , but it doesn’t rule out doing a raise in the future if they need to fund an accretive already producing asset. Surely with $4bn of tax credits it makes more sense to look closer to home?
Isn’t Zama held in a UK holding company? Anybody know more details on how the tax works on any sale?

Just to hammer home that previous message , that is a physical premium above hedged values. Good Luck

IMO 2020 doing its best to disrupt normal trade patterns. Catcher now commands a 3 dollar plus premium above dated Brent . And dated Brent is well above front line Brent....all good

#Crude +4.7
#Cushing -.3
#Gasoline +5.6
#diesel 3.7

No as it’s virtually doubled over last 6 months according to PMO website

Anyone know why BG has never issued a holdings RNS , despite owning over 14%

Ribeye. - you’re almost quicker than the human eye!

Or could be BG or somebody else adding length to try flush out the short...?

Still not heard the credible answer as to how they are hedged, unless there is an equity raise to dilute and buy back?

If that near 9m trade, and that’s a big if, is attributable to Henry, the mild mannered janitor, then this will rocket....all eyes on the FCA short data, which usually comes out around 3.30. Let’s hope they’ve not added (unlikely as the price was near the high of the day) or a delayed trade from yesterday morning....

8 918 890 shares traded in that one transaction representing roughly1.07% of total shares in issue. If it was a buy then it is too many shares for Whitebox and AHL to cover leaving Connor Clark etc or Henry the mild mannered janitor ...nice round 8m transaction....will have to wait til tomorrow to see if it was anybody closing....game on if it’s our new friends and they declare it...,

Followed by a chunky ut. Hope somebody didnt use 500k of stock to lower the price where they bought it back and more in the end of dsy auction......

Looks like somebody trying to influence the close, a 200k and a 300k+ O trades in last 7 mins below mkt levels.....the story continues

I’m totally with you that they’re are in a much better position than 2017 to refinance at better rates, just depends on the technicalities the likes of ARCM use to try force a way out for themselves. Pyrrho had a sour taste last time out,

I suspect PMO really need to clarify what the best and worst case scenarios are. Will try IR if they back in the office next week