Member Info for Plebleens

Never quite understand this, as have never seen a TR1 for Baillie Gifford, despite owning 14.62%

I pretty much doubt they are going shorter....BNY Mellon are a guarantor for some of ARCM funds, maybe covering....? But they also work closely with Premier so could be something to do with the refinancing and underwriting ? After previous non disclosures, I suspect any fresh shorts will be reported. But they will have to find ways to cover shorts back without alerting the wider market

IR have very kindly updated the top 10 holders list. No major shake outs despite all the news, and one major addition Bank of New York stock lending collateral account straight in at No7 with 4.2% as of the 9th January. Wonder who they are lending stock to?

Libyan NOC declares force Majeure on oil exports from all Eastern ports, as rebels shut down southern fields . Could be upto 800kbd off line. All whilst they try and thrash out a ceasefire in Berlin...,

What I am particularly enjoying is Andy saying ‘ from a neutrals view’. Bit like saying Whitebox are sitting on the fence.....?

More press tonight no doubt? The ES article came out lunchtime Friday

These were supposed sales of the debt last month. In The trading telecon Tony said that 73% of total debt was irrevocably onside with the restructuring. 8% of the remainder was retail. last weeks rns stated that 75.15% were now onside..Of course ARCM are miffed, 10s of millions at stake so trying to the beat their chests and shake the tree.....time to reach for the Canestan

I did mention Libya unrest in my ramblings last week. Cold spell should also shift prompt gas prices but going forward the LNG oversupply issue rumbles on until the developing world earns itself off coal

Plus generous coupon payments on the debt, plus warrants etc so share price has to rally quite hard to put them out of the money...... but then again nobody has had to cover a short back as big as this in a ftse 250 company which has a decent institutional base and no doubt little free float . Would be interesting to see the latest top 10 holdings updated from Elizabeth or Natalie

The bonds are bid over par because the new terms are pretty generous so no doubt many will want to own or rollover current position, the 2023 will then be at par when they are issued

Should break the 120 barrier on this news.

Remember ARCM bought the debt at 60-70 p in the pound and last trade on the bonds was 104.55, so they won’t actually be losing money ( just losing profit) unless share price gets nearer 200, they own some phys shares as well and will no doubt participate in the placing (not my area, but can they bid up the placing shares to cover the short or are they distributed proportionally to the debt holders?) and RI , but overall still have a massive chunk to cover. With Zama news and Charlie 1 imminent , I really don’t understand why the ‘smaller’ players are still short? Especially with OPEC compliant and trade deal cancelling out the extra US production. Let’s see how long the cease fire holds in Libya and Iran tensions somewhat muted.

In the 2017 refinancing, they had all the creditors agreed before the court hearing and the hearing was simply a rubber stamp with the new arrangements coming into place 10 days later

As a caveat some of these could be locked against warrants...

Just a reminder how many shares the smaller players still have to cover,

AHL. 4.9m apx
CCL. 9.7m apx
WBox. 6.2m apx

Average daily volume of the last 3 months 6.4m so still going to take some time, and I’m guessing unlikely to be around for the Placing/RI?

Thanks Lady Luck, for a new joiner, better than our good friends tbrexit and dayindayout who embraced the board so warmly in Dec!

My thoughts are the fact that they’ve got this session underway, one week after the announcement then they have to be very confident they have the 75% backing, which will be enough surely to get the share back above 120? Then just need Zama news before any placing price is announced. No resistance on charts til 140 area, maybe a bit below from the triangle formed by May 15 and Oct 18 highs.

Progressing quicker than I thought, good news?

Apart from our good friends the rest gradually reducing

Must be nobody to talk to in Weatherspoons this afternoon.....,

Anybody got anything relevant to say about the company?

Surprisingly no change in the shorts yesterday, unless wbox are delaying their report once more

Time for a good old fashioned Friday afternoon crude rally. Can’t imagine many want to stay short over the weekend...? The 50 day and 50week MA held in Brent yesterday around the 64.40 level. May have to wait post the 4.30 pricing window though as phys players look like they’ve been pricing in this week.

I suspect they want the news on getting the 75% , final Zama sale price, and poss outcome of Charlie 1, which could all influence the share price and give a higher base for any placing/RI.

Notice all the Bank positions are changing, so somethings afoot

Never you Ros, you’re one of the good uns....I think!

Few questions for the day.

why did Whtebox report Tues short covering late?
Why were so many dementors crawling the boards talking of RI at 70p on Tuesday night, knocking the share price weds morning?
Who were the main shorts on Afren?
Any crossover in prolific posters between here and the Afren boards?

Not toast, but disgruntled and not making the money their whale trade intended. Remember they bought the apx 390m debt at what some say a 30% discount. This is trading at par now . Coupon value, plus warrants and they own at least 10m shares.....so the inflexion point to make a loss is probably nearer 2 quid. Let’s hope they didn’t spend last years profits down Sha Tin....

Maybe the placing price gets bid up as they look to cover away from the market?