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Evening Andy , nice to have most of the old gang back, just waiting for your other nemesis to come back. 1 decibel rather than oil abuser and then we can have a friends like reunion. Glad you’re also now. looking at the technicals , after your previous cynicism, and like your 342 level but would be more worried personally at 334. As a semi bite I’d say an opportunity to buy more on any dip as Oil (and gas) are caught up in this massive inflationary wave. 1 mmb or less on Thursday from OPEC and oil rips to $80. They also have summer burn to contend with, so demand elsewhere for their oil. Midland starting to look expensive , North Sea should find some love from the East. EIG are not daft. Not for the short termists but the tightest oil market (artificially) since 2014 a boon for any producers out there. Pay down debt, pay a dividend or pick up cheap out of favour assets to accrete the portfolio ? Good Luck all.

Errr yes they were, forties maintenance has been well documented for a while hence the pick up in the May dated (Brent) price (extra revenue for hbr) get over you amateur nit picking , as your fundamental knowledge is somewhat Andy.p like x

Forgot to add that at current demand recovery analysts are calling a 3mmbpd deficit in supply going forward unless OPEC dramatically change the production cuts at next weeks meeting. Iranian barrels will hardly touch the sides . Look at the WTI structure if you want to see how tight the current supply situation is in a rapidly recovering demand country. Look beyond the flat price DBNo b

If you really believe in this rally , and want instant returns buy oil and collect the backwardation each month. Buying oil companies is a slightly safer bet and with the tail of the Brent curve above $60 out FB or the next 8 years, the hedging opportunities and guaranteed income is easy for all to see. Investment in new production has fallen off a cliff snd when oil demand gets back above 100mm bps the reserves renewal will be left wanting wIth the recent under investment. This current inflation and artificially restrained supply rally will be hard to turn. This is like asking a VlLCC tat full speed to make a u turn. OPeC interventions always lead oil to overshoot the direction of travel. FCF potential in upstream oil is enormous currently. Managed money isn’t even anywhere near extreme levels. Potential returns will over run the ESG luvvies.

The overhang is taking longer than I thought to unwind here but also oil prices have only really taken off in last 2 months that still need to flow through. The Apr 2019 high taken out today and free air up to $86 on the charts. Physical premiums are growing for nSea barrels and East is crying out for more despite china’s attempt to suppress the commodity rally. Backwardstion in Brent structure is akin to when the flat price was at $100. Keep the faith this is undervalued IMO but will take the managed money time to realise and get over their environmental hang up. Inflation trade rules, dollar strength transitory, HBR is well positioned to take advantage as well as buy the assets that the majors get cold feet owning. Good Luck all and fingers crossed for $80 + oil

Oh and for the Chartists amongst you, the 200 month MA in Br at 74.62 is a formidable barrier to close above , but if it does then there is free air upto $80. Otherwise think about the possibility of thee managed money wanting to top up positions at $70. They are only at the 70th percentile of max length. Inflation will ruin the party for some, but not oil…..?

Not rocket science….the hawkish Fed - earlier taper and 2 interest rate rises in 2023. Dollar shorts burnt and commodities take a bath. Chins also trying to curb runaway inflation in commodity prices by restricting retail trading and releasing reserves to the market. The underlying inflation trade will overide the dollar move snd create a dip to buy. OPEC are not releasing supply quick enough to satisfy post pandemic demand revival as the worldwide vaccination program gathers pace. Their current policy is like asking a VLCC yo g do o a u turn..,,market will overshoot before it can reverse…70-80 dollars keep the faith, exploration budgets are slashed snd ESG luvvies are restricting new projects. Supply bottleneck coming soon. Good luck all and I like buying the dips

NSea physical premiums have also turned a corner, with the recent floating storage overhang snapped up and physical diffs on the charge finally catching up with the strong Brent structure . Johan Sverdrup moving east and catching a decent bid premiums.

GS say that OPEC+ Will not respond quick enough to the uptick in demand and 80 dollars on the cards by Aug. With uptick in mobility on the vaccination rollout and Middle East summer burn for cooling have to agree with their view.

Biden backtrack on RIns and bio into gasoline should keep the US motorists on the charge this summer. Short oil and oil stocks at your peril.

Iran barrels will be slow to the party, possibly Chinese price suppression and pressure on retail commodity traders may cause some headwinds but the 10y yield downward squeeze keeping the dollar under enough pressure to keep commodities afloat. Everybody needs an inflation hedge and managed money is under represented in oil in current price environment.

Technical resistance also broken with the channel now violated. Share Overhang won’t last forever neither the ESG luvvies when there’s money to be made. Always amazes me what weak risk takers the bond holders are, when there’s so much to look forward to here in hbr. Good luck all

Hopefully the ftse 100 on the Sep reshuffle ….? Keep the faith

Ivanabeetu, Ms Brooks would be proud of you, thanks for the clarification ;). Makes total sense.

The static share price though is still nothing to do with the ftse 250 inclusion or non inclusion, just the overhang of the lack of mettle from the tedious lack of risk takers of the creditors….

Is it or is it not been included in the ftse 250 reshuffle . Mcap should put it in around 120 something. Somebody forget to fill in the form? Can’t even see it on the stock challenge website….all a bit weird..?

Oil right at major ascending channel and structural abqaiq resistance. RSI still has room to travel, so convincing break above 72 and we will be in the nee 70-75 range, setting a few shale alarms off. But who cares 70 dollar oil is amazing free cash flow for an upstream company. Gas prices also doing fine. Good Luck all, the trading update can’t come quick enough. Good times ahead whilst Opec in control and stimulus reflates the world

What a nutmeg for the overbearish, BBC Persian reporter got a little excited on the breakthrough story.

Russian envoy to JCPOA talks says he didn’t say there was a breakthrough at the Vienna talks; said significant progress have been achieved but unresolved issues still remain and the negotiators need more time to finalise an agreement.

Iran already pumping 2mmbpd, the extra barrels will take 6-9 months (assuming the kit is in good Nick) to come back. Physical buying and runs are on the up, demand will have caught back up by then. Infact front end demand is strong at the moment likely enough for another 1mmbpd at the next meeting as we back below 5 year OECD stock average.

Oil has only closed above $70 for 9 months in total since 2015. Be careful how high you want this to go with shale finances rebuilding. Personally don’t see Brent back above $71.75, but it’s not going to drop too far either. Still a decent level for an upstream company with 200 kbd production.

Good Luck all

Correction to my earlier post, with too much haste on the automatic exit and entry points to the FTSE 100…actually entry closer to 5.65 mcap so sadly need 30ish pence for automatic inclusion depending on the non performance of others…still very much a feasible target….ftse 250 and MSCI tracker funds will encourage the share on its way… good luck all

Slight downgrade on the IEA data but retro looking at q1 and so pretty unchanged forecast for the balance of the year. (Caused the minor wobble) Oil glut gone as OECD stocks back to just above 5 y average. Question whether Indian cases has peaked but with no full lock down, difficult to see the demand side dropping further over there. Forecasts for demand back to 100mmbpd by year end. GS talking super cycles, but I’m more sceptical in the oil space. But $70 oil repaid the balance sheet nicely on unhedged and future production. Maybe there is room for an interim trading update ? Leave the share consolidation to post June ?

And thanks Andy for the mention, less red flags to hold you back this time round….? this share does go up sometimes. Good Luck

Good news indeed and Automatic move into FTSE 250 quarterly review in June reshuffle.

Market cap roughly 3.95 with share price just above 21. Automatic ftse 100 entry needs mcap nearer 4.55 currently (although not a direct science) . Back of fag packet calls means that share price above 25ish should do the trick. Tracker funds ahoy…

Not inconceivable with FCF at current flat price level. Caution may not favour the brave with so long to wait for the trading update?

And lest we forget about automatic entry into the FTSE 250 and high 20s which is not unfeasible should be knocking on the door of the main Index.

Inflation trade rules the roost, and oil the back of the pack compared to metals and ags, as OPEC still have at least 7million barrels pd to return. Front fundamentals are still a little soft and crude diffs and structure under pressure. Macro forces dislocating the flat price higher, and fundamentals will slowly catch up as the post COVID demand recovers. Few refinery outages in the states due to the pipeline but only temporary as should be operational again by the weekend. Indian refinery runs down by 10% more the worry. But with FED unlikely to counter inflationary forces soon, the fund appetite for commodities will grow. Good for rotation into cyclical growth stocks, and at current levels of Brent , HBR cash flow should be looking pretty decent. Shame there isn’t a trading update before June….to demonstrate the cash flow to the cautious. Good luck all.

And a lot of the younger fund managers have not been through a full commodity cycle before today underestimating the recovery in old school growth ...good luck all

And for the serious Chartists I repeat , has anybody seen how well that bullish RSI divergence and breakaway gap are doing on the daily charts? Good luck all fighting the contrarian urge . Odds ?