Member Info for Plebleens

Equinox reported this morning…best quarterly results in 9 years…Cushing drew again in the API ….something for the less cheery on here to think about…good Luck all however you play it

Teapots…. : China's mega refiner Rongsheng Petrochemical got 12m tons of additional crude import quota for the rest of this year. That equals to roughly 88m bbls, and they will need to import the crude oil volumes by the end of December. These 4th round of allocations very supportive for the physical market..slight pinch of salt on the delivery before Dec, assume the article meant purchase before year end

$100 oil on its way and OPEC still being cautious and US shale cash disciplined…Fresh Covid shutdowns the last hope for the bears

Not for you then members ? Thanks for popping in….

And Bays forgot to reply to your other point, but Cushing running dry will be a nightmare prospect for the markets as will have the mirror image effect on the pricing mechanism to the negative prices back last year. Exponential and on steroids..Biden overnight also admitted once more that he powerless to stop it…personally wouldn’t want to be short ti at the moment…shame HbR doesn’t have much pricing off it.

The oil side is the easy bit with a trending market and all that backwardation to collect each month. HbR is more of a conundrum, but personally believe the silence is golden as they get all their ducks in a line. EIG love a deal..fact. And with no Sealion need some conventional assets to bolt on. This current energy ‘crunch’/rush to security of supply has unfortunately made a couple of the negotiations a little trickier….This uncertainty fuels the shakeout and exacerbates the poor execution from the creditors…have to believe it will all come good in the end. Very difficult to buy the shorters argument, although don’t expect any news flow til Dec. Shame really as a Tolmount RNS would correct this fiasco in one fell swoop. Good luck

Baysil, let’s get a room ! Great thought process, puts the thickos to shame. Looking forward to (not)oil(abuser) posting on an up day to really show off his astute analytical nature carved out from a glittering financial career…god I’m bored! Not long to wait…

Sorry Harry been busy today but thanks for your evergrande synopsis . Look forward to seeing it repeated in the morning…along with the same 3 paragraphs of yawn …comedy unconfirmation bias at its greatest . Pure genius

And when are you going to let Jeff know that you don’t actually live in China?

The members are working the board hard this morning and it’s still 10 days to Halloween…Harry you managed to miss out Evergrande in your usual morning note, expect to see it back in tomorrow I hope. …let’s see how much of an offload we get today. Lows definitely getting higher and great recycling opportunities for those not wanting to ignore the noise and play the escalator trade…watch out for that lift…can’t believe I’m playing the man and not the ball..must be bored..roll on December and $100 oil..markets are tight. Asian backwardation scarily high. The market will overshoot like it always does. Good luck however you play it

10y!

Sorry Harry, must have got out of bed on the wrong side this morning…isn’t BST +6 Thailand or Cambodia? Anyhow you’re invested and things looking a bit better than a couple of weeks ago so positivity dial turned a bit to the right.

Oil dips getting shallower. Those underwhelming Russian gas nominations certainly passed through into the distillate markets yesterday. China 4th round teapot allocations bit lower than last year, but Chinese need to buy crude, and triple digit backwardation in the sour spreads. As Jeff points out 20y stable and dollar weaker today…all time highs once more on the S&P anyone ? Bump and grind with harbour and into the 400s… Good luck all

His messages getting longer , more repetitive and more tedious. Very much in the style of that retired fella who lived in the Middle East , who used to annoy rather than add anything interesting to the board. Had a bit of a drunken posting syndrome later in the day. Littered with spelling, grammar and syntax errors. Can anybody remember his name?

Blimey Harry, surprised the National bank of the Philippines hasn’t signed you up as an analyst with such thought provoking views repeated once more…

Bull flag breakout worth a quick 45 points to the upside from the high 380s…looks like somebody forgot to turn on those machines and sell this morning….Anybody read that JP Morgan report on possibility of oil reaching $130-150 level without ruining the economy…not sure I totally concur but a nice bit of confirmation bias for the bulls

Haven’t got a scooby to be honest apart from it similar in size to the Jarvis investment management position…anybody know who handles the employee share scheme?

Great info Lemarc and makes perfect sense. Positive forward planning

Oooh Baysil so lovely to have you back . Great post. Perfect summary of the current energy crunch. Golden week keeping the Chinese quiet this week; those 4th round teapot quotas need to be announced soon…securing supply at all costs…interesting that the US backed down on SPR and export ban (save them til the crisis really hits! And also the export ban creates a rocket under Brent price related grades so will be futile) . OPEC will help out but a few members have major trouble increasing so all down to Saudis and Abu Dhabi…you see that article about the record surge of buyside interest into energy stocks from Gs prime brokerage which ties in with the Odey story…might even get round to harbour once they work it out…ha. Great line about that Tolmount RNS could also hit the opposite way round for the doom mongers at any time…let’s get a room HnY and good Luck

Just bounced off the bottom of the bullish flag bottom.

US threatening an export ban, just imagine what that does for oil grades pricing off Brent…

Good luck

Correction European Nat Gas up over 20%

Correction European Nat gas up 20%….

With European gas prices up another 10% this morning, product cracks roofing again , oil can’t be dragged too far on this , dip well get bought as per