Member Info for PL75

Great posting history, a newbie asking basics to spitting ‘facts’ with price predictions overnight

Do you what the profit margins are? Why would we end up at £8 if we don’t make any profit?

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/lateral-flow-devices-results

https://www.southampton.gov.uk/coronavirus-covid19/covid-testing/testing-programme/

DYOR...

You probably shouldn’t mention donkeys on here. Some people might be a bit sensitive to that as they can only dream of mounting high horses due to their tiny stature

It’ll be SD biosensor for the LFD and the saliva testing for places of education will be an extension of the trial for saliva testing for places of education:

https://www.southampton.gov.uk/coronavirus-covid19/covid-testing/testing-programme/

That’s me done, I’ve said my bit, I’ll set the ramping free... OMG, we’re all going to be gazillionaires next week, I reckon we might hit my price target for a first top slice £100 exc Chin-ah on Monday

Morning Timster, it isn’t Awacta. On this board we quite rightly jump all over dewampers, sometimes a bit too much to the point it creates a bunch of disruption when they should be ignored. This weekend is a bit of a tricky one as it’s beautiful music to our ears, but do we do the same to the rampers? Our test is still in tech transfer, it needs clinically validating. That doesn’t mean that it won’t be a key part of moonshot - that isn’t news - but it won’t be in a trial that’s starting immediately.

If there was previously some doubt that moonshot was going to happen and Boris has reassured people that they are going ahead with mass screening, great, but I’m not getting ahead of myself. Once Sir Al says that all technical risk has gone I’ll be pleased. When we finally get the clinical validation that demonstrates we can indeed exceed all the requirements for that crucial infectious period, I’ll be chuffed. When Boris is proudly waffling and waving one of our tests and announcing weekly testing of the population I’ll be bouncing off the walls and making retirement plans.

Costs per test are $1-2. Selling price will be up to $30, most likely $15 in bulk. Gross margins are extremely healthy and the estimate of £2 a test for net profit is reasonable. No one knows the precise commercials other than Sir Al. He’s still negotiating with multiple parties so he’d be pretty effing stupid to publish any detailed numbers.

It’s obvious he wasn’t talking about Awacta for the immediate roll out as we haven’t got a validated test yet.

However, all the talk of domestic manufacturing and the ultimate roll out is definitely Awacta. But then we knew that and the Huff Post have added to the list of really easy clues. The most obvious and biggest clue was when Sir Al said it. He told us they’re focussed on the UK, they’re aiming for 120m and they’ve been talking to the govt. I’m no Columbo, but...

Just one more thing... I enjoyed watching BoJo talk about it because he knows what’s coming and you could see a hint of smug, we all know what’s coming and I was definitely smug, but not everyone knows what’s coming. We’re in a privileged spot.

I agree. They’ll sort out logistics with the rubbish ones and then wheel out the saliva test for the dribbling masses

Challenge your 20/20 hindsight? Who do you think I am? Global?

No saliva LFDs that we are aware of. Both E25Bio and Orasure have changed to using a nasal swab. If you find anyone, let us know. The challenge isn’t competition as the demand is way beyond any individual company. Sir Al is concentrating on the UK which is 120m per month. Any additional supply is likely to come from OEM deals and other companies using affimers in order to be able to use saliva as the sample type.

Higher lows as we get closer and closer to confirmation of tech transfer and the removal of technical risk. News could drop any day

Increasingly obvious he’s worse than that, not better

BRH can also work with saliva, but it’s not going to be an at home test. It’s a different market. Still, mustn’t grumble at today’s news over there, tiny mcap vs potential. Sometimes being Brave and taking a Hearty chunk of shares can pay off.

The market size of this company is minuscule compared to the opportunity. Prof Carl has achieved something incredible. There’s huge upside here, well done all

Well played Doh, feeling smug myself, especially as I added on that weird drop after the good mask news - another string to their bow which will come through soon

Nice and steady buying pressure pushing it, there’s no huge gap up which means we’re getting a sustainable rise which is good. Loads more news to come now with a moonshot at the end of it

Agreed. Different solutions are needed for the various use cases. I can see a test such as this playing a huge role for mass gatherings / throughput due to the speed to result. Phenomenal

Love the phenomenal achievement quote. Sums it up perfectly, congratulations to Prof Carl. The fastest test in the west :o)

I started this thread as I thought there might be an interesting discussion to be had and we've ended up saving the world with a battered sausage. Nice work all :o)