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I doubt it was me, that sounds like a sensible comment devoid of unnecessary sarcasm. If it was, it must have been an off day.

Oke, the higher the Ct, the lower the viral load that can be detected. This might help...
https://www.cebm.net/study/duration-of-infectiousness-and-correlation-with-rt-pcr-cycle-threshold-values-in-cases-of-covid-19-in-england/

Understood, many thanks. Excellent post as always Monkshood

You can cut the sexual tension between you with a knife. Quit flirting and just get a room

That’s why I hope Sir Al doesn’t hold back in his ambitions and get as much capacity as he can. Trump only ordered 150m Abbott tests. We know Biden wants to see a huge increase in testing. If Awacta can exceed the S&S levels that are needed in a form that can be used at home then they’ll snap them up. So far the FDA have only approved one at home test and it’s over engineered and therefore expensive. The global market is there for the taking.

The takeover will arrive after a self funded phase II of AVA6000 in 2023 following a nasdaq listing. By then, Awacta will have more than a few billion in Covid cash and Sir Al will have moved to a larger mansion. The offers will be up to £10Bn == £40

Not sure I believe a vague word of what he says. What was optimisation about if one day you’re drooling on it, the next shoving it up your nose? If the govt are happy for AN swabs to for an at home test to the tune of 120m a week straight away, that sounds good to me. Genuinely couldn’t care less about the sample type used. I’d just like some genuine clarity of exactly what’s going on and when. As soon as we get a high performance test to market the rest falls in to place. I agree they’ll sell as they can make, the key question is how many is that then...

Might as well throw in my speculation... The swab version is completely new, designed from scratch with BBI ‘standard’ components. Why? The lack of a mention of Cytiva and I don’t believe that you can end up with a high performing swab test using strips optimised for saliva by Cyvita.

I agree with the theory the switch was govt led. There are now different use cases as discussed and this is based on the results of the Liverpool trial. NHS staff should be ok, with training, to get decent results from the Innova test. They’ve found the throat tickling doesn’t work too well so they want a test with just a nose tickle. So, one use case is mass screening. Still not at home testing though... So, Cytiva aren’t buried and the saliva test development lives on. At home, there’s no risk to dribbling everywhere and it’s the simplest solution for the great unwashed.

Order of events:
- BBI are ready to go with the swab version, possibly straight in the mix for the current round of testing. The RNS was shoved out so that the market wasn’t confused by a swab version appearing out of nowhere
- contract to supply at the capacity of BBI and Abingdon only. This will support wider spread community testing. Govt assist in increasing capacity, plus the IPO of Abingdon.
- Dribble test to follow in Q1 along with lay user study, enables global manufacturing base for ridiculous volumes for at home testing, initially U.K., but expansion potential globally.
- The dribble test will arrive to minimal fanfare as everyone will be jaded due to more delays, the market will assume everything is disappearing due to spring arriving and vaccines being rolled out. The reality is that the r value will rumble on at a level that will not allow normality and globally it’ll still be spreading. Full mass at home population screening in the summer of next year will transform the fight. There’ll be a huge clamour for this at home solution and we’ll all be billionaires. The end.

Doh, dosing patients in early in 2021 has become Q2 so I think we'll be lucky to see anything by this time next year for ava6000. All fine if the filing is done soon as promised and we see progress elsewhere in the meanwhile.

Confident prediction. Can you share your workings out?

Mass screening will be more effective than vaccines in driving down r, becoming South Korea would be perfect as they introduced a huge amount of testing early on and the success is proven by their numbers

Vague isn’t it? We don’t really know. Still tweaking after all these months... get the products out the door Sir Al...

Boris modelling a lab coat. That’s about it...

LOL

Mainly bore.

Pigster, yeah, it seems to have gone. We’re basically at the placing price and in my view at fair value for the oncology side of things. In the good ol’ days, Bojo mentioning an LFD would have seen us bouncing off £1.87 again. Now, barely a flutter. I don’t think much of the Covid side is priced in at all now. Sir Al thought this was a fair price, Ruane agreed and Milton have said as much. Every day the core business progresses and the downside risk reduces. All a bit dull, but it looks like any future rises will need be based on cold hard facts and RNSs without the fluff.

Wetherby based. Sir Al will have spat his Yorkshire Tea all over his whippet when he read that...

He's posting speculative nonsense as a fact? Again? That's twice in a day. Why people revere that 'expert' I'll never know....

Typically vague, who knows.... ‘Good progress’

Full quote...

"It’s all turned a bit meta, the vast majority of posts are bell ends proffering their judgement on the quality or otherwise of other posts. Worth mentioning that yes, I understand irony."

You've just popped yourself firmly in that category by suggesting I'm not self aware.

It’s a US company, you ****wit