Member Info for pipedreamer

Just bounced off an Elliott bottom.

Matthew,i still have my book from the eighties by Frost and Prechter,very good.On Amazon there are many books on it,basically any one will do you.
Basics of it are ok,need to get your head around extensions and the like,that's where it needs a bit work.
Remember that you must mess around with a calculator and a chart anyway to find and develop your own system to use as a back-up to any already known system.A confirmation tool if you like.
Firepisces,If we can agree that "there is no such thing as a fast buck",logically (as I have always thought),the "slow buck" way of doing things must be correct,as it's the opposite.
Over the years it has seemed to be the best policy,whether house price rises or shares.Obviously you must have a basket of investments (spreading your risk),and as for shares only 2% of your portfolio in any one share.
Always keep a chunk of your money liquid,so as to pick up bargains if and when they appear.
Don't average down,pick a bottom and if it closes below that figure after you have bought,SELL,that way you will never hold on to it all the way down,(such as this dog!!).

Which trading system would you say is the worst ?.

One more down wave after we have finished this rally.When this rally will end ?,i'm not sure,but my calcs say one more down move.
It will start to happen maybe at the end of May.The next big move for the indexes is defo down.Can't see how on earth it can be avoided.
Always remember that we all have the capacity to be wrong.The thing we have to do is to be right more than we are wrong,and if we invest in shares at 2% max in any one share,we should be ok.

Read my previous posts. esp those referring to bottom.

I have put some S.P. predictions on here in the past.I will be very interested in your next post.

As for cycles,i looked at it a couple of years ago,Tulipmania and the South Sea Bubble,gap of 83 years.1929 top to 1972 top, just before the 1973/74 equals half of 86 at 43 years.1972 plus 43 years is 2015.
The Kondratieff wave deals with similar cycles.
As Markets are set to tank,will gold go up,or will it do what it did in Feb and tank with the rest ?.Frankly i'm puzzled.

Sotolo,sorry I made a mistake.It should have read to the effect that,will holders of gold sell to raise cash ?,not the holders of Centamin shares.
The property market could be flat for a very long time also.Suffice to say we live in perilous times.

Good idea,especially last Monday.There again it may go up and down till the END of May,before the next wave happens.
Tho with the footsie reaching just shy of the 6200 mark ,and the S&P flirting around 2875,it looks prudent to take the view to sell.
The only thing to consider is whether Centamin gets dragged down with the rest of the market.Will they look to selling off other assets instead to raise cash ?.

No response regarding my last post.Odd.Like life really.

It's breaking through resistance and heading to my previous thinking of the 45 to 48p range.Should be resistance there,so it needs to be observed very closely.
Good luck to those who got on at circa 30p.

The move up since 22nd of April looks good on the chart so far.There maybe a pullback at or around the 36 .8 mark.but maybe it will after all get up to 45p?.But a close eye must be kept on the chart from now on.

I would like to thank everybody for their replies.Very great depth to all the replies.Back in 1980 when gold soared I got interested in gold,.The price had spiked to 840,and was down to the 400 to500 mark.But after doing research,i worked out that the fundamental price of gold was about 333 dollars an ounce.I was quite crushed that all the work I had done had led a lower price than I had anticipated, and therefore little hope of profit.
I was though happy when I read in the Times that Swiss dealers were looking at that time for a floor of 333 dollars.
Using Elliott wave I worked out a bottom of 250 dollars,which was reached years later and was the low.Not having a lot of spare cash,i passed on the opportunity, Ouch !!!!.
If gold spikes up like it did in 1980,my calcs give at current inflationary rates at a top of about 4,000k,more obviously if inflation was to rip in the years to come.
The big question is how governments get out of the upcoming recession (and Depression ?).They cannot go down the 1930,s deflationary route as we saw what happened then !!!.Already at this early stage, social unrest is beginning to rear it's head.
In Germany,the Far right and the Far left were seen at the weekend at a demo,apparantly singing from the same page,(work that one out,weird!!!!).
So I ask the question, what is the chance of governments going down the inflationary route ?.

Could somebody tell me the pros and cons of buying gold mining shares as opposed to owning physical gold.
I read early on when gold shares were going down with the rest of the market,that there were fears that if a lot of the workers at a mine became sick that they would have trouble getting it out of the ground.
If there was a shortage because of this wouldn't the price of physical gold go up?.
Can anyone enlighten me on here regarding this?,as I want to invest.

Can somebody tell me the pros and cons of investing in gold shares versus investing in the physical gold ?.
I heard that because of the coronavirus there may be problems getting workers to get it out of the ground if a lot of them get sick.
If the gold stays in the ground,won't there be a shortage ,and the price of the physical rises?.

I see both your comments,and respect them.It is very difficult,as always, to get the bottom of any share right.
As I do the Elliot wave theory (to the best of my ability),I cannot myself see that the number of wave movements needed to complete a move has been reached yet.
Timewise there is since Monday a window that gives an opportunity to suggest a bottom has been reached.But all workings out have to line up together,preferably,so therefore it doesn't signal a bottom for me.What can negate this analysis is some unexpected good news,(example a bid for a company).One must consider that in these times good news is in short supply!!,and where could it likely come from?.
Other TA doesn't to me suggest that we are finished yet.Of course even with any amount of T.A. or fundamental analysis ,markets can makes fools of us all in the end.So best to try to amass as much info as possible and base your decisions on that.
You could always wait for a bit of base building to happen, and wait for a breakout,t and then get on.You miss the first upmove,wait for a little pullback and then jump on.what is disappointing about the S.P.is that there has been little sign on the chart of it pulling out of the dive that it has been in.
Imagine that on the chart it's the plot of an aircraft in a dive,any sign of it pulling up ?.
Well that's my take on it.Good luck to everyone considering buying now.Hope I have got it wrong.We live in uncertain times,
and as I have said before,we all need all the luck we can get.

Aspers I see your point,and I can only reiterate what I have said regarding mud slinging and ya boo screaming from the terraces.I have no knowledge as to the size of your portfolio,but I think you might agree that no matter how good we think a share is,to go nap on it (all in so to speak),is not good idea.1% is a good way of spreading the risk.
I personally believe that averaging down tends to spur us into buying impetuously,too soon,giving us a get out in our mind, that all is safe with this tactic.
Tech Analysis gives us support levels and possible bottoms that we can buy on.If it fails to hold we can get out with a small loss, and look at the next support level (talking long term support level that is).That way when we touch bottom we can win back any losses and build profit on that particular share.
I see BP on your list.I ventured to someone that I for quite a while had had 250p as a fair support level for BP.Turned out not a bad call.I also had 5161 as a bounce on the Footsie,having turned at 4993,not a bad call also.
So you see,even a ballpark figure can be useful to trade on.Just to say that I posted before on here 172 123 86 63 43 31 21 and 15p as possible support levels,123 and 63 did well (especially 63p,rose 50 %).
Of course other systems TA wise can work well.For me, other systems I have discovered have to line up as well to trigger a buy ,(no good if the TIME,(that's specifically clock time!)is not correct).
So you see there are lots of things that can work to guide us all.Lots of luck to you with all your investments,esp with Centrica.Lets hope we can pick the bottom.Technically,it's getting near it,but with all the turmoil going on in the world,i hope it doesn't suffer terminal decline (brought on by coronavirus issues).It would be a bit annoying to find the bottom,get a nice rise, only for it to be dragged down terminally because of the Coronavirus wipes us all out economically, in the general sense of the word.

yes,it's a shame Kelloggs is not around to give us his views.The trouble with forums is that they are stuffed with people that rely on "feelings",and do not give solid reasons as to how they arrived at their opinion.They rail at anybody who disagrees with them.
Personally I 'd love to hear from people who disagree with me,and I would read avidly what they had to say,as long as they basically, gave me checkable reasons as to why I should change my view.
As I have said before,we all give our opinions,work out who are good at share picking,and therefore we are better placed to make successful investments.
I believe that if you had 100 PROVEN stock pickers,if 93 of them all came up with the same share as to when to invest in it,your chances of being successful would increase dramatically.
So can we focus on the S.P. in future,forget that some on here can't converse in a gentlemanly manner,don't bite back,ignore them,and concentrate on those that would who give their respectful opinion (backed up by research),whether they be Bull or Bear.That way we may become richer,more informed,and build a basis for further successful investments.

I do wish for a more measured and gentler approach to posting on here.As I have said before,NOBODY on here has the ability to move the market up or down with their posts.The big Institutions are not paying any attention to what is being said on here.
I first posted at about 172p,and all the way down,loads of posters gave their Fundamental analysis of Centrica and called them cheap.As it has turned out they were wrong.
I can only do the technical side of the share price,and I give my opinion based on my analysis of the price movements,and like everybody else on here and in life,i have the ability to be wrong.
Could we please reign it back a bit and treat each other with respect.I know a lot on here are nursing losses.But posters with a bearish view on here are not responsible for them losing money.I trust that we are all contributing honestly when we post {I am).
We must always give reasons for our particular stance that we take,and post accordingly.
Hopefully we can all catch the bottom and come out on top,or at least make the losses considerably less.

31p didn't hold so new support is 25p.best guess is a rally to circa 31p,then a final move to the 15p range.Sorry about this,but that's the best I can do with my knowledge of T.A.
A bargain basement of an average out buy at that level might reap some relief from all the years of pain.But at these levels now,and at any lower price, you have to ask yourself if it's worth it,worth the risk.
Most ex nationalised shares have been caned.If they all go bust,capitalists can point the finger at those companies as a reason not to go down the renationalise route again.You see that's ammunition for them.Maybe that is what's going on?.
Anyway,good luck to all of you,Bull or Bear,we will need it,loads of it,now and in the future.