Reply Sotolo5 May 2025 13:20
thank you for your post. i noted your comment about a 100 year cycle. i haven't heard of that one, but doing research i saw that the length between tulip mania and the south sea bubble was 86 years. i noticed that the 1929 wall street crash to the 1972 irregular top which let to the uk market losing 73%, was 43 years (half of 86 ).
i looked at financial crashes over the centuries on a site i found which was interesting. the problem is that it is only recently since the 20th century that economies are inter connected, what effects america affects all countries etc.
i couldn't find the original site tthat i found but found another one that noted that in the roman times what affected rome reverberated around the world, they being the foremost powerhouse at the time affected every one.
the only comment what was made was two big financial crashes back then which were exactly 42 years apart.
when one considers that "history doesn't repeat itself, people do" (voltaire was it ? ), it seems that people at set times lose their brains and their sense of basic common sense, and indulge in reckless speculation, bubbles.
when we consider that since 1939 at the outset of war to the present day in 1925, 86 years has elapsed, i can see trouble.
i thought i knew who the modern day hitler was, putin, but now since the start of the year i've changed my mind!!!!!!!.
all markets are very high with the dow since 1974 increasing some 90 fold!!, crypto and property bubbles abound.
robert prechter an advocate of the elliott wave theory, i believe he suggested that the top was in 1987, and since then it has been all a "b" wave sucking in "bad money" (bad oligarch, gangster money) and mugs to be left, holding the bag in effect.
indeed after the covid market fall, it rallied, and i saw that elerian mohammed "i do hope i got his name correct) said that it was a bear market rally. frankly for a long while now all big falls have led to early morning mark ups, scaring the shorters to rush to buy back. i can't find a 5 wave up move anywhere in the dow and footsie over the years now. i suggest the "plateau ", sideways move is merely sucking in the mugs in a big top formation, which one day will lead to some very big pain.
having said that i don't see the start of the big collapse just yet, my figures say that there is more side ways slant up move. i know this seems at odds at my gloom and doom scenario. but i think we will see cuba style standoff at least before sanity is restored. if trumps plan for instance doesn't work there are going to be some pretty ****ed off people!!.
we are living in very dangerous times. we saw the nazi stormtroopers back in the thirties, anybody fit the bill now?.
good luck y'all. (apologies for punc/grammar ).
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