Replies14 Dec 2023 10:23
Thank you for all your replies, (Jeremy refuses to reply, and they call this a forum!!),I respect all your comments and take them on board. The problem with fundamentals and charts even, are that with a fundamental study it can go wrong when bad results are announced and the price goes up, and good results appear and the price goes down.
I have mentioned before the old adage that "the news follows the stock market, the stock market doesn't follow the News". What happens is, if the price goes up after a bad set of results the Papers report that "the results were not as bad as expected". If the shares go down after a seemingly good set of results, they report that "the results were not as good as expected.
As for posters saying surely the bottom must be near, i cite 1973 when the market lost 73%. On circa January the 5th 1975 Burmah Castrol went bust, and the Market fell. Straight after, the market started it's near 50 year Bull run, even at a time when Nat West Bank shares fell below par value. If you had said at any time in the last 50 years before 1975 that this would happen to Nat West, you would have been laughed out of the Building.
Although i respect Fundamental analysis, i tend to look at the Charts and see if they are holding their pattern, whether it be Bullish or Bearish. At the moment i'd say percentage wise that there is a case for seeing a Bull pattern, though with this share there has been many a false Dawn where the Bull pattern collapsed in upon itself. After a while you can see when it starts to go wrong and act accordingly. Of course like Fundamental analysis a chart cannot factor in a sudden event like a takeover or a sudden realization that somebody is cooking the books that negates a chart pattern.
Both things come under the "unknown" banner. Although sometimes if a chart makes as sudden move prior to an announcement a chart can tell you sometimes that "something" is going on, but as yet unknown.
A lot of sudden wild gyrations on the 1 minute chart this morning, as the Bulls and the Bears were having a right punch up .
Personally i'd sit back and observe for the next few days and let it play itself out, so that a bit more clarity becomes apparent.