Member Info for pauldrayton

I always said (and mentioned it to GH at the time) that i3 should have drilled A3 rather than the two Liberator wells they chose. If you look at all the previous seismic interpretations of Liberator they show both of those wells being below the OWC which is what proved to be the case (they are all in the i3 Admission Document if anybody wants to look).

I think the Minos High has massive potential, and believe things would have turned out very differently had they drilled A3 first, but that’s life.

In fairness to the board, the Canada acquisitions were a masterstroke and I think all investors will eventually make money out of i3, even if they bought at the highs (£1+).

Wishful thinking maybe but I’m pretty hopeful for both Serenity and the Minos High, and the Canadian assets are brilliant in this commodity environment.

Can i3 become a billion pound company? The Serenity well will probably tell us how likely that is.

Given the leadership race for PM will be ongoing when Harbour release results in late August, I wonder if they will hold off on telling the market their plans to offset the windfall tax.

After all, if Liz Truss wins they will want to pressure her to rescind it so it would make sense to be as negative as possible about it in a way.

Just a thought.

They won’t extend the current drill programme G_G_G.

Not only is it far too late for that, but they will want to evaluate the Serenity results before deciding what to do next.

This is a single well campaign this autumn. If successful I would expect another campaign next summer but not before.

No me neither. Really kicking myself for my Longboat investment but I thought they’d get something cheap during the downturn. Imagine what an acquisition then would have done now, even if they felt they were overpaying. Just look at Kistos (I know we keep saying it on here but it’s a prime example).

Don’t get me wrong, if one or two of the final three wells has good success than Longboat can still go on to do well but as shareholders we didn’t invest for the rolling of the dice that exploration exposes you to. High risk high reward is for amateurs really, and that’s what these so called experts have turned out to be.

I’d sell our but I do feel the current share price is undervalued with the Egyptian Vulture and Kveikje discoveries alone. Now I just hope they can do something useful with them and get a bit more success before the end of the campaign.

Put this one down to experience for now.

Putting Gneiss to one side, you would think there has never been a better time than now to be seeking a farm out. I suspect the process will take a few months though - could be 2023 before we get an outcome.

I see it as hopeful and you’d think Parkmead have a good chance of finding a suitable partner (or partners) in the current environment.

If not now then it will never happen.

Underway at last. Oswig & Copernicus are very important wells now for Longboat.

Be nice to have an update on Egyptian Vulture whilst we wait.

25 days from spud to results for the previous Serenity well, so this one should be similar (give or take depending on delays etc). If they start operations in early September it’s possible results (good or bad) will be in Q3.

I think 30p gets left behind later today or tomorrow.

I get the feeling that the worm is turning in the oil & gas sector generally, and i3 have an exciting second half to the year ahead.

Well the first deadline is 3 weeks today. Less than 12 weeks to the extended deadline even if a delay is invoked.

We should be put out of our misery one way or another in the not too distant future.

So Jeff, when does the debt bubble burst?

It’s got bigger and bigger, and just when you thought it was unsustainable it gets even bigger and then bigger again.

What’s going to stop it just getting even bigger?!

Genuine question - when and how does this madness end?

Yes I was thinking that too!

I asked ICSID if there are set circumstances under which the Tribunal can extend the 120 days by a further 60. The answer is there isn’t - it’s up to the discretion of the tribunal. They did point out it is rare that it’s invoked, but knowing Rockhopper and AIM this will end up being a rare case.

I think you’re looking at the latest set of rules SBP.

This case is the 2006 set of rules.

Rule 38
Closure of the Proceeding

(1) When the presentation of the case by the parties is completed, the proceeding shall be declared closed.

(2) Exceptionally, the Tribunal may, before the award has been rendered, reopen the proceeding on the ground that new evidence is forthcoming of such a nature as to constitute a decisive factor, or that there is a vital need for clarification on certain specific points.

Probably in the Q2 2022 Operational and Financial Update, which should come roughly 3 months after the Q1 update which was on 9th May.

They will wait for the Serenity result and if successful drill another appraisal well next year, along with one on the Minos High.

There won’t be anything added to the programme this year.

If the Serenity appraisal is a dud I suspect they will just concentrate on Canada because it will throw their entire model out.

Looks to have broken out of the downtrend now thanks to general market sentiment and perhaps anticipation of the next set of quarterly results.

Would be nice to see 30p break and hold before results.

Has the rig actually moved to Oswig? If it was done at the weekend it’s surprising not to have a spud RNS by now.

I think that would depend on the variables. If successful at Serenity, how thick are the sands? How does that compare with the prognosis?

If the appraisal well is dry that will obviously have a negative impact, but a success case has a range depending on what they find.

Well spotted - spud RNS Monday/Tuesday I suspect.

If only they had gone with Cairn….

Sadly true about Kwarsi - clueless.