Member Info for pauldrayton

You’ve been saying that for months Sonofthebull!

Time just goes on and nothing ever happens here.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_4562

Thanks all. So is it likely the company is currently heading now for 2024/2025/2026 at higher prices?

Apologies for a basic question that I could look up myself but when do the ‘cheap’ hedges expire? When will HBR start to benefit more from the higher prices?

12 weeks now since the ICSID case was declared closed as well. Surely something has to give before too long.

Draghi resigns.

Totally agree. $75-85 even I would say. The high prices are not good for any of us as you say, although I fear they may be here to stay.

Well spotted Tony. You’d think so wouldn’t you.

You’d think the draining of the SPR would be bullish for oil rather than bearish, but that’s the short term nature of markets sometimes.

It’s difficult to predict future demand with a global recession but the global decline rate of oil production is circa 5% which is a lot to find/develop every year even if demand were to stall or drop back slightly. This supply crunch has come from 8 years of underinvestment - I suspect it will take 10 years or more to recover from that.

The comments yesterday about how there can be a discrepancy between the price of oil and the physical market were interesting. I wonder whether that might be less likely now because more countries will surely want to add to strategic reserves if prices dropped which would cause competition.

Interesting times ahead - it will be choppy for sure and an oil price of $80-100 is far better for the global economy than $100-120 so it wouldn’t bother me in that range, I just don’t want to see another crash below $60 which I think (hope) is less likely this time.

But what do I know.

An oil price in the $70-90 bracket would be much better for the world economy than $100-120 so it does seem odd that Harbour are punished relentlessly no matter what!

PS. The Harbour share price is just ridiculous imo. Yes the windfall tax isn’t great for them and they have hedged some of their production at lower prices but they should be debt free by year end.

I guess they will be hoping the new Chancellor scraps the levy but they look underpriced to me regardless.

At some point investors are surely going to have to look at the companies that are actually making money, even if they are frowned upon.

Desperate times = desperate measures. Profits over principles!

Do you think oil will go that low even in a global recession this time LTT? With such a supply crunch going on and no global spare capacity, you’d think oil prices would remain strong even with an economic slowdown. Of course the market is never rational so you might be right, but you’d think it would be much more resilient than in the 2014 & 2020 days when supply was outstripping demand quite significantly.

Who knows, but like you say Navitas and Israel will be looking longer term whatever happens - it just might affect the debt market.

Hoping so LTT. There have been some ICSID cases that have dragged out for years and the claim has been dismissed though so I’m not counting any chickens.

The weird thing about this case is they told us over a year ago now that they should be in a position to render the award in July 2021. How it’s taken this long even with the late Italian submission I don’t know. It does seem like some kind of wrangling must have been going on behind the scenes as you suggest, but we can only guess what it might be about.

The award will include the quantum.

Although I’m still concerned that Italy might win - probably just used to anticipating bad news on AIM!

If that drop was due to this afternoon's RNS then it's provided some bargain hunters with a great opportunity to buy, and the company with an even better opportunity to mop up some sells.

Let's see what comes out in the wash - is the market really that stupid or is there more to it?

Let’s just hope we see a large buyback this evening to take advantage of this chaos.

My guess is today will be the biggest buyback to date.

Just wait for 6pm.

Mop em up Linda.

Surely the US depleting their strategic reserves is bullish for Brent. Why it causes a short term drop in oil prices I don’t know. They have nothing to replace it with.

Looks like all of the purchases were made in the last half hour or so of trading.

So they are willing/wanting to soak up any selling pressure although it still dropped further to 368p. I suspect we will see plenty of buybacks again tomorrow.

Why the big drop?!