Member Info for pauldrayton

I’m usually glass half full but I’m really struggling to see what this Longboat team has achieved either strategically or geologically.

They bottled a production deal when the timing was perfect for them, and their choices of exploration wells hasn’t been great. Kveikje was 55% CoS so more likely to succeed than not - they’ve failed with Rodhette, Mugnetind, Ginny, Hermine & Cambozola. Egyptian Vulture is really the only prospect they can claim to have picked well - it’s a pretty poor return overall considering they were telling us that 40/50% of exploration wells were successful in Norway. They’d have been better off throwing darts at a board than ‘hand selecting’ the prospects they did.

Thank goodness the wells were generally drilled under budget which has allowed them to add Oswig & Velocette. They really do need either Copernicus or Oswig to come in successfully this summer or it’s going to be a bleak winter with no Egyptian Vulture appraisal until next year (and will they have to raise funds for that?).

There is no getting away from it, management has been p*ss poor so far. Egyptian Vulture & Kveikje have saved them from total embarrassment but it’s simply not good enough so far considering the salaries they are paying themselves.

Rant over!

B*gger, disappointed with that one because they had high hopes despite the low CoS, and LBE own 25% of the license.

Oh well, onto the next one. At least there are three more important wells to come.

It’s always at the end of June, as much as I like your enthusiasm!

I can only assume it’s because investment in oil & gas is unfashionable now. A lot of institutional investors don’t want to touch it. But at some point return on investment will supersede that - higher living costs and investor greed will turn people’s heads. At some point the worm has to turn because if commodity prices stay where they are or rise further then most O&G companies are already significantly undervalued and returns elsewhere are diminishing.

Windfall taxes and demand destruction are concerns but this could be just the beginning of the biggest oil & gas boom ever.

Another 493k shares transferred. As Mozza says it would be interesting to know where they are going (assuming it’s Blackrock selling).

It is strange because the spud RNS said 14 weeks, the admission document said similar and so did the permit application.

I know they include a fair bit of contingency and have been quicker in general but results next week would be well ahead of schedule. It is what Helge said though so I guess we wait and see.

Inclined to agree. More debt has been paid down since March and with current commodity prices the August trading update is going to be very interesting.

Can’t see this being below £5 in Q3/4.

Just a shame about the price you can get for them!!

Just as I posted that I found one, although it seems unusual:

https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/14/18

Has anybody found a single ICSID case where the 120 days from closing to award has been extended?

I've looked through quite a few and haven't found any, although it would be typical for RKH to be an outlier!

The sweet spot seems to be 6-12 weeks after closing for the award to be rendered - it does vary but I can't find any that have gone past 120 days.

A steady stream of small sells this morning, along with some large trades which look like transfers again.

Thanks DEM, that’s kind of what I was thinking.

I can understand if there are extenuating circumstances which lead to a delay (eg. illness) but otherwise I would expect 120 days to be adhered to. With Rockhopper everything seems to take longer than ever seemed possible so I wouldn’t count on anything but I’d expect an award to be announced by 22nd August (be it positive or negative).

Helge’s comments in the last RNS as well as at the Investor Meet presentation definitely seemed as though he was expecting results within weeks rather than months.

Are there rules regarding the 60 day extension? Do ICSID have to have particular reasons for it or is it at their discretion?

Indeed. Longboat have been wary of the UK North Sea for a while and they’ve proved to be correct in that. Short sighted from HMG imo. Norway looks the more attractive place to be operating at the moment, but Longboat need some more successful wells and then to trade them effectively so it’s still a medium/long term plan at the moment.

Some large trades just being printed. Perhaps Blackrock offloading again - looks like some kind of transfer given the volumes.

I also mean a permit rather than a license.

Sorry too much wine!

Excuse me I mean 4 days ago on 20th May.

Just noticed that Equinor were granted a license for Deepsea Stavanger to drill Poseidon.

The license was granted 4 days ago on 24th May, and at the time the “planned entry date” was May 2022 (ie. this month).

https://factpages.npd.no/en/wellbore/pageview/exploration/drillpermit/9614

Either that was a bit ambitious of them when applying for the permit or Cambozola activities are close to completion.

Either way I suspect news might be on the way fairly soon - much quicker than they had originally suggested.

The OM case seems to be dragging on for some unknown reason. Don’t forget that a year ago they said they were expecting to be in a position to render the award in July - not close proceedings but render the award. There is no obvious reason why it’s dragged on for another year since then, even with the late Italian submission.

I suspect that whoever wins the case, the award will be attached with a dissenting and disgruntled voice from one of the arbitrators. I’m sure we would have heard by now if they were all in agreement.