Member Info for pauldrayton

I think Truss & Kwarteng are already expected by the market.

Not sure I really trust Kwarteng though - he’s a bit of an eco-loon at times.

I think the picture on warrants will be clearer in a couple of weeks. It seems to be taking the brokers a while to process them.

Garbled quoting Nigoil.

We really have hit rock bottom!

Yes it doesn’t look to me like Olympic Delta is surveying anything but Ocean Mermaid definitely is.

Time will tell - I cheekily sent an email to the company to ask but no surprise they haven’t replied!

Olympic Delta is just a supply ship Mozza.

Your point still stands about Ocean Mermaid but I can’t get my head around it. On the one hand you’re right - why survey an area where there was no discovery? But equally this has been going on for some time and it seems unlikely that a survey like this could and would have been organised & carried out so quickly at the first sniff of hydrocarbons (given the well is not complete and they won’t have logged either). It would be highly unusual for additional surveys to be carried out whilst drilling is ongoing.

It’s very strange - neither of the two scenarios make much sense to me!

So I’m totally clueless!

Amazon Conqueror looks too far north to me. Not sure where Mainport Cedar is heading yet but Ocean Mermaid definitely looks like it’s surveying the Oswig license area.

Looks like Deepsea Yantai has now arrived at Copernicus and Ocean Mermaid is continuing to survey Oswig - very puzzling.

Doesn’t it suit Rockhopper quite well for the time being to have an unclear tax position and an inability to distribute funds?

Keep the vultures at bay.

Yes LTT it was Odey.

It’s basically a message saying “no asset strippers please”.

It’s definitely mapping - either a seismic survey or a seabed survey. The question is why and for what purpose, that’s what’s weird.

Yes good point I could have worked that out for myself!

So that would value Ptal at 111p, more than double where it sits now.

Happy holding both Ptal and I3 for now.

If it’s been there a week it’s highly unlikely to do with the current well but it does definitely seem to be over that license area.

Thanks Tony, interesting and helpful.

Out of interest what share price would Petrotal be at the median?

I’ve got a few although they do have risks as it’s a single asset and are vulnerable to the regular uprisings there.

Interesting spot Whirlaw.

The Oswig prospect is actually in 4 parts - West/Mid/East/North.

I ‘think’ they are currently drilling Oswig East. By the look of the Ocean Mermaid’s track it seems to me like it might be surveying the West & Mid parts but that is an untrained eye!

Is it a reason to be hopeful or just wishful thinking?! Not sure, but an interesting spot nonetheless. If it was related to the current drill then it’s a bit of a surprise that it’s been initiated so quickly, and the results of these types of surveys usually take some time to analyse.

Harbour now have a £40m+ incentive to ensure the award is enforced. They will be well prepared and won’t muck around.

It would cost them $25,000 to do so I think and the Secretary General will refuse to register the application if it’s not based on one of the following (which have been posted here before):

– the Tribunal was not properly constituted;
– the Tribunal has manifestly exceeded its powers;
– there has been a serious departure from a fundamental rule of procedure;
– the award has failed to state the reasons on which it is based

See here:

http://icsidfiles.worldbank.org/icsid/icsid/staticfiles/basicdoc/partF-chap07.htm

New date for the diaries.

Italy have 120 days to decide whether they wish to apply for annulment. Obviously they could decide to apply for annulment before then (although I doubt they have the grounds to do so, especially considering the unanimous verdict) or they could pay up before then. But Rockhopper can’t seek enforcement until the 120 days are up, so I suspect if they need to go down that route then it will commence in January 2023.

You can understand why they had to do the placing, and at least that does give them a bit of leeway now financially and they can play the longer game.

In the meantime the interest will accrue and Harbour have been very confident in being able to enforce if necessary from the start so I don’t mind waiting.

In the meantime it’s no surprise the share price is languishing as there is a lot of profit-taking to do. Some news on Sea Lion might help the churn but Rockhopper has gone from an anxious hold to quote a comfortable one for me.

All in all an excellent week, especially considering most of us have all but written these off at some stage.

Enjoy the bank holiday weekend all.

Thank borgo but you told us last November the Ombrina Mare award was due in December and it wasn’t good news.

You talked enough b@ll@cks on iii so don’t bring it here too. Good luck with Namibia ;-)

Deepsea Yantai on the move. Has it got another job before Copernicus or on its way there now?

At least the whingers got their update at last, although we were probably better off without it ;-).

I see weakness for a while now but took the opportunity to add a few at 26p ahead of the Serenity well. Might drop below that over the next few weeks but a good result there would be transformational and I think we might see a rosier picture by Q1 2023 even though we are staring down the barrel of a massive global recession and demand destruction.