Member Info for pauldrayton

Petrofac have put out a requirement for an anchor handler to prelay the mooring for Stena Don, commencing on Sunday.

I thought that would be part of a rig move - I wonder if they’ve had problems and need to move the rig.

Pure speculation - I have no idea what the reason is.

Petrofac have put out a requirement to “Prelay Stena Don”, commencing on Sunday.

I thought that would be part of a rig move? I wonder if they’ve had problems and need to move the rig.

Pure speculation - I have no idea why.

There does seem to be a bit of volume today which is unusual for a Friday. Looks like some persistent buying but who knows why. Let’s hope RKH’s discussions with HMG are progressing well.

The original permit allowed for a sidetrack if they had issues downhole. The additional permit is for a different type of sidetrack - a step out for further appraisal. Two different things - at this stage it means nothing but it does give them an option depending on how they get on with the current well.

I think the sidetrack was agreed with EOG only once they got funding in place so they applied for it at that point (later than when they applied for the initial drilling permit).

The approval has come through now which makes it look like it’s linked to the drilling, but I don’t think it would be. It takes a while to get these things approved so they probably applied before drilling even started.

I think this is just ‘in case’ they need to. They’re unlikely to be at the target zone yet - middle of next week maybe.

Hi Rot1,

Indeed - they are not testing. They do not have a permit to perform a DST and nor do they plan one. This is a quick in & out, with a possible sidetrack. Cheap & (hopefully) cheerful!

They may not need to perform a DST at all because they will know how the Captain sands perform at Bake, the Captain field and Tain, but if they do decide to then it will be part of a separate drilling campaign next year if this Serenity appraisal is deemed successful.

They won’t be flaring so unless you can swim across and speak to those onboard I think you’ll struggle!

Unless I’m mistaken they weren’t “energy reps”. It was Mark Pollard and John Birmingham, who were also at the Labour Party Conference last week.

The FIG send representatives to all the party conferences every year so this is nothing new, but hopefully they had a bit more to discuss at the top level this year.

The OPEC cut has sent the White House into a bit of a spin and the focus is back on energy security again.

I think the biggest challenge for Navitas & Rockhopper will be in keeping costs down given what’s happened with inflation.

I don’t believe they could or would want to get legislation through for retrospective taxation.

Mozza, according to the OMV document, they are plugging the well at the top of the 12.25” section and starting again from that point which is at 2,352ft.

Once the casing is pulled and the original hole plugged (which takes a few days), they’ve got to drill both the 12.25” section and 8.5” section again. That’s approximately 2,500ft and includes the high pressure, high temperature zone where drilling will be slower. In the original well they allowed 30-35 days for those sections, and they’ve stated 37 days to drill the sidetrack (which maybe allows a bit of extra time as the sidetrack won’t be totally vertical).

They then have to rig up the testing equipment and perform the test. I’m not sure how long that will last but I would guess a few days at least and possibly as much as a week.

So my guess would be at least 5 weeks and probably more like 6 weeks from when they started operations. The sidetrack permit was granted as an appraisal well on 23rd September:

https://factpages.npd.no/en/wellbore/PageView/Exploration/DrillPermit/9694

So my guess would be end of October at the earliest but probably the first half of November for results. But that is just a guess because they might go quicker now they know what to expect, or they might have issues/delays.

Half Year Results out.

Encouraging comments from both Chairman & CEO.

I agree Ash, up until the point when they sell it.

This DST is a production test and they will be wanting to get it into production ASAP. This isn’t an Egyptian Vulture type discovery that will need analysis and appraisal. It’s good to go.

If the DST proves that it can flow as they expect it to then they could offload Oswig for the figures I’ve quoted below (and they are based on the $4/bbl quoted before the Russia/Ukraine crisis).

I know we are all hacked off with the way this ended up being a pure exploration play when they promised production (and missed the boat).

But one thing’s for sure - Europe needs gas at the moment and if Oswig is as big as they hope then it’s hugely valuable with infrastructure next door.

If the DST is a success I’d be asking Equinor for £2.50/share for the whole shooting match and we can all move on (yes I can dream!).

Just for a bit of fun if they could get $5/bbl in the ground in the current market then Oswig East alone could be worth £1.83 - 1.98 per share.

Did anybody watch the Investor Meet presentation?

Egyptian Vulture appraisal well decision at the end of the year but could be late 2023 or early 2024 before they’re drilling. Equinor in charge of timings.

Kveikje likely to be monetised (sold or swapped) in the near future.

They think Oswig resources could be 20-30% higher than the pre-drill estimate:

If it’s 20% higher that’s 112mmboe = 22.3mmboe net to LBE = $89.3m @ $4/bbl = £83m = £1.46/share.

If it’s 30% higher that’s 121mmboe = 24.2mmboe net to LBE = $96.7m @ $4/bbl = £89m = £1.57/share.

Oswig has some huge upside if this DST is successful.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/navitas-petroleum_innovation-collaboration-energy-activity-6980796362799865856-fM6b