Member Info for pauldrayton

Thanks DES. Do you know how much longer they have to test?

Looks from the ship brokers like they’re expecting operations to continue for a few more weeks?

They are flow testing the well or the flow test is going well?!

We know the former, but would like the latter!

Ah ok, in that case a small safety vessel might make sense. No clues of how it’s going in the market, in fact it seems to have gone very quiet.

I beg your pardon, it says North Pomor FRC (fast response craft?). Is it some kind of lifeboat/safety vessel associated with North Pomor?

For some reason I can’t see it on mine.

If you type that number into the search bar it says it’s North Pomor.

I can’t see any other vessels.

Not sure what the point of accepting 80% would be. Harbour would insist on being paid their full fee regardless so only RKH would miss out.

They have a bit of time to wait and enforce if necessary - interest will start to build again from December and enforcement costs are normally claimed back.

I’d say hold out for the full amount.

Yes I noticed the celebrations on Linkedin, which I took as a good sign although there was one comment from an Equinor subsea engineer warning about a tight reservoir and compartmentalisation at that depth.

Helge seemed quite encouraged by the wireline logs so let’s hope they play out in the DST, but I guess that’s why they need to do it!

What I can tell you is that when the sidetrack & DST were announced, the supply ships’ ‘next available’ date was pushed back to the end of October.

They’ve been pushed back again today and most shipbrokers are now saying around 6th/7th November. No certainty that they won’t be pushed back again, but it suggests there are still at least 3 weeks of operations left. That will include some time to P&A etc so results could come before operations end (depending on how much time it takes them to analyse the results).

North Pomor and Norsea Fighter are the two supply ships on contract. They regularly alternate, going back & forth to Mongstad for supplies (and also to Tananger more recently as I mentioned). I don’t think we can read anything into North Pomor’s latest movement.

I think Strik Merkur was north east of Oswig, at the Gullfaks field, so unrelated to the OMV operation.

Surely the best time for share buybacks is during a liquidity crisis when everything is getting sold for cash.

I think shareholders should be pushing the company for more whilst the market is doing what it’s doing - buying back shares at current prices is a great deal for shareholders.

The reason why buybacks are a good idea right now is that there are liquidity issues in the market, which means everything gets sold for cash. That affects all companies whether they are good value or not.

Companies like i3 which are making good profits can therefore buy back shares at discounted prices.

It’s a good use of money in a distressed market.

As Kveikje is the only discovery that could be monetised at this stage, that’s what I expect them to do. It will be a useful yardstick to see what the market will pay for barrels in the ground close to infrastructure at the moment.

Tony they didn’t even find 1ft of oil charged sands at SA02. They found absolutely nothing - zilch. Not even a stringer. They’d have to go much closer to SA01 to find anything and they’d never have found a partner willing to pay 50% of the costs to do so.

Don’t deceive yourselves into thinking this was a near miss, it wasn’t.

They didn’t step out too far - this was a fairly conservative well location that should have found oil if their model was even vaguely correct.

The problem was the entire interpretation of Serenity was wrong, and the first SA01 well actually deceived them into they were right.

The reality is that there is a small amount of oil filled sands on i3’s license area and they would have needed to drill almost right next to the discovery well to appraise it. They would never have raised funds or found a partner to do so.

The best thing would have been to sidetrack the original SA01 well but now it will have to form part do the Tain development drilling - no way they are contracting a rig just for that.

I don’t think they had anything to test! Never come across such a bunch of blatant scam artists!

That aside, I do agree - this is a DST, not an EWT. It will probably only run for a few days, although they presumably won’t make any announcement until they’ve fully analysed the results.

Mozza I hope you’re not comparing Longboat to the fake oil, snake oil scam merchants!!

It hasn’t been great so far but it hasn’t been quite that bad!

One other thing I forgot to take into account when comparing drilling times to the original document, is the fact that they won’t be coring the sidetrack. Coring is much more time-consuming so I would expect it to be a fair bit quicker this time.

Purely a guess but I suspect they will be doing the DST at some point over the next week or so, with results in the last week of October at the latest. That’s assuming no delays, which of course is a possibility.

Serenity is effectively finished - it’s time to wake up to that. There is some oil on i3 acreage which might be extracted but if so then it will be done in conjunction with the Tain field. So i3 will need to discuss this with Repsol Sinopec and come to an agreement.

Tain FDP to be submitted next year, with a tie back to Bleo Holm.

There is some value still in the i3 acreage but it’s not a lot and it’s all down to Repsol Sinopec now - i3 will not be contracting another rig for further appraisal.

I’m inclined to think i3 ought to look to sell up lock, stock and barrel at some point over the next 6-12 months.

They did a very good job acquiring the Canadian assets at the bottom of the commodity cycle. Now we are at the top of the cycle I wonder if it might be best to take advantage and put the For Sale sign up.

The North Sea assets were a potential game changer, but I agree with Golovkin and would be quite comfortable with the company selling up for something in the 40-50p range now (which I don’t think is too greedy).

To be honest all companies make these comments about “better understanding” after a duster.

A better football analogy than those posted below might be that they hit the post with the first shot and assumed the whole area was metal.

I can’t see them spending money on another appraisal well - there might be some more investigation into the license area as part of the Tain development but whether i3 remain license holders until then I think remains to be seen.

Forget about it for now, it’s Canada only now so let’s hope they’re making good progress there and maximise what they’ve got whilst commodity prices are high.