Member Info for pauldrayton

SecretBluePrint called the initial award and said it would be announced at the very last second.

He might be right again about the annulment attempt.

It’s in Italy’s interests to prolong this now to put other potential claimants off following the same route - aside from some additional fees it’s not in ICSID’s interests to drag it out.

Given how long it’s taken to get this far, it’s hard to believe they can do anything quickly, but we can at least hope that they will do so in this instance.

Most of the shipbrokers have pushed the ‘next available’ dates for the supply ships out to 15th November now. One of them has it at 24th November but they are an outlier (for now). So at least 2 weeks of operations left to go, possibly 3.

Of course we could get results before all operations are complete so news could come sooner.

After the positive vibes over the weekend, we get hit with this on the Monday!

Having had time to calm down, let’s be honest this was expected. And at least Italy didn’t wait until December to submit their application - we’ve gained 2 months ;-).

If there is no commitment to pay the £3m for the time being then it’s much less of a concern. I can’t imagine Harbour will just let it lie now having funded the entire process - interest will accrue from December and as others have said it’s unlikely Italy will succeed. They’re just trying to put others off trying imo.

Time to focus on Sea Lion now with Navitas and let the lawyers crack on with this in the background.
We’ve waited 5 years, what’s another 2?!

Sam’s response on the £3m:

“The whole success fee is a very grey area. The plan is to pay it either on winning annulment when we would clearly be in a very strong position OR if we realise cash from the award ahead of that (sale of all or part of the award or some other way to accelerate capital) – there is no plan to pay it today.”

It is a bit confusing isn’t it. Does this application for annulment mean that annulment proceedings definitely proceed, or can the application be rejected immediately?

I think the bigger issue is the £3m owed to the lawyers. That wasn’t mentioned either before or after the award, which is poor.

I have to say Rockhopper have been poor here.

No mention of the £3m payment to lawyers before today?

No explanation of the grounds Italy have appealed on?

Not surprised, frustrating as it is. The timescales involved in these things are a joke. How can it take 18-24 months to decide? I’d like to know what grounds Italy have appealed on. This whole process is appallingly drawn out and will deter others from doing it (which in turn incentivises Italy to keep doing it).

There were limited options for annulment and they seemed highly unlikely.

Got it, thanks for the clarification.

Thanks for posting Mogger. This was interesting:

10. Significant Risks
10.1 If this paper is not approved there is a significant risk that FIG will not be in a position to deliver the Sea Lion project according to the timeline that Navitas have planned for. It is also highly likely that UKG will not support FIG in this project if the government fails to be suitably prepared.

UKG support back on the cards then?

Looks like the Murphy Oil boys are in charge of Sea Lion now.

And another:

www.linkedin.com/mwlite/in/tstensgaard

www.linkedin.com/posts/aleks-armstrong-4784929b_im-happy-to-share-that-ive-started-a-new-ugcPost-6991845974004428800-giAL?

Isn’t it the Ian Andrew Barclay who is an equity trader (ex UBS, now director of Aedos Advisers)?

If they can get commercial flow rates and prove up the in-place volumes they hoped for in the discovery RNS then it certainly would be a game changer.

The shipbrokers seem to be suggesting that there are about 2 weeks of operations left, with the supply ships’ next available dates around 7th-10th November.

That will include some supplies post the DST to plug & abandon etc, so I’m guessing the well test operations will finish some time in the next week or so (assuming no delays of course). Then I suppose it’s a question of how long it takes to analyse the results before they update the market, although I guess a lot of that analysis will be done in real time as they conduct the test.

The only thing I’d say is that those genuinely ‘in the know’ might be few & far between. It’s not a question of whether there are hydrocarbons or not like an exploration well, it’s how does the reservoir perform. That information might be limited to those in an office somewhere analysing the data as it comes through.

But who knows!

I think there were always 2 main risks with the DST:

1. Formation difficulties or mechanical issues that prevented them from carrying it out properly.
2. Reservoir quality.

It sounds from what DES has said that the first one has been overcome, which is great to hear.

Now the important question is - how does the reservoir perform when tested?

Many thanks DES, so it’s looking like the first week of November then assuming no delays.

They really do need this DST to be a successful one - I guess they have a lot of data to collect and analyse.

I did notice that one of the shipbrokers pushed the ‘next available’ date for Norsea Fighter back to 15th November today. Most of the others are still saying 5th/6th November, but they tend to be updated on Mondays so we shall see. Seems like there might still be a few weeks left but interested to hear more from DES if he’s able to elaborate.