Member Info for pauldrayton

Exploration was reporting a fact, it’s not his fault what people choose to do with the information. Who knows what’s going on behind the scenes but the shipping movements are available for all to see.

If you’re an O&G company looking at the next 5-15 years, then you have to take the polls and Starmer’s comments seriously. The man is utterly clueless and will be terrible for the country and the economy but it’s looking likely that he will be PM.

With that in mind you have to exit the North Sea altogether and look at investing in other parts of the world. It’s a massive shame but that’s the reality - both the Conservatives and Labour are guilty but there is no incentive whatsoever to invest money into the North Sea now with Labour looking likely winners of the next General Election.

Look to Asia imo.

More of the same waffle about successful exploration (that has decimated the share price) and no appraisal drilling until 2024.

They surely MUST have something else lined up - Kveikje monetisation hopefully following the license extension award.

And what else?

30 days is long for a well test but that will include some contingency time and I suspect they will want to get as much data as possible on the reservoir, and include some fracking in the programme.

3-4 weeks for results I reckon.

I’m a bit nervous about the share price reaction. 2.5p after a discovery and commencement of a full well test is not signalling a lot of confidence in that test being a success and there has been relentless selling for a while. Let’s hope it’s not those ‘in the know’.

Many thanks Explo

Thanks Exploration - very interesting stuff.

Given the tight reservoir, what makes Shell/Deltic think that Pensacola might be a commercial success?

We have recently seen Longboat Energy flow test their Oswig discovery in Norway with OMV which flowed through a tight reservoir but flow rates were low and recovery rates too.

I realise this is a different type of reservoir but if it has similar characteristics then what do Shell & Deltic think they can do to overcome it?

Is there any comment from the companies on this?

Cheers.

$75-90 Brent is fine. Anything above slows the global economy, contributes to inflation and causes governments to intervene with windfall taxes. Anything below reduces profits as well as the incentive to explore/appraise/develop.

We could do with a period of oil price stability which would be better for everyone. The government really has messed up with the windfall tax but hopefully they will see sense at some point.

This is quite an interesting report (apologies if it’s been posted before):

https://www.biicl.org/documents/10899_annulment-in-icsid-arbitration190821.pdf

So there we have confirmation. I wonder if they were waiting for the Kveikje Discovery Extensions before monetising as that clearly adds more certainty and value for a purchaser. Or maybe they intend to keep going for now.

The Oswig extension was expected but useful and let’s hope they are right - it will be interesting to see how quickly they work up another drill there.

The Lotus prospect sounds interesting, especially with a 56% CoS. Not a huge prospect but 30% stake is healthy.

They still need to do some work on getting a production deal if possible and let’s hope progress is finally being made in the background.

Does a decision on quantum come under the grounds for annulment though LTT?

They could have submitted a request earlier but you’d assume they definitely would have done at the first video hearing so 30 days from then would be 9th February at the latest for a decision.

I agree that the stay is likely to remain in place but I haven’t checked other cases to see what’s most common in these situations.

Totally agree that it’s great so see them getting started so swiftly.

Good news this morning although no information at all on what they’ve found and the reservoir quality. I guess that’s just the way Shell do things.

Does anybody have a link to what was prognosed here? Was reservoir quality high risk or was it expected to be good at this location? Encouraging that the analogous Darach prospect flowed well but I can’t find anything about the expected reservoir quality at Pensacola.

Encouraging to see this underway already. First decision on stay of enforcement shouldn’t be too far away:

“As soon as the Tribunal or Committee is constituted it shall, if either party requests, rule within 30 days on whether such stay should be continued; unless it decides to continue the stay, it shall automatically be terminated”.

Yes well spotted. That survey vessel was mapping the area around Oswig and Tune for some time and they insinuated a couple of times that there was the possibility of a southern extension to Oswig that might be shallower and therefore likely to have better reservoir quality. I guess this one of these licenses includes that area.

Interested to hear more about the other two tomorrow.

My favourite poster of all time - videodawn. Insight, wisdom and wit as well as a great storyteller.

Please keep posting SBP, when you get the time, but you certainly deserve to relax & enjoy yourself - congratulations on an epic trade. If that’s your last then it’s a memorable one to end with! All the best and thanks for the laughs over the years.

Before I bother the company with an email, has anybody contacted them to enquire why they haven’t recommended the buybacks yet? I thought It was a Christmas pause but was restarting in the New Year. Apologies if this has been covered but I can’t see it amongst all the posts.

Although few people will want to admit it, the reality is that none of the Covid responses saved lives - if anything they cost a lot more. Masks, vaccines, lockdowns - not just pointless but damaging.

The cure was far worse than the disease and we will pay for those mistakes for generations. No wonder they will never admit it.

Judging by other cases it usually takes 3-4 months to get an initial hearing on the stay of enforcement once the tribunal is formed. That takes us to end of Q1 - although it would be nice to see it fast-tracked that might be wishful thinking!

Latest Development:
December 7, 2022 - The ad hoc Committee is constituted in accordance with Article 52(3) of the ICSID Convention. Its members are: Michael Nolan (U.S.), President; Eva Kalnina (Latvian); and Carita Wallgren-Lindholm (Finnish); all members appointed by the Chairman of the Administrative Council.

Just hope Jeremy Hunt doesn’t read this board or he will put the WFT up again ;-).

Linda mopping up another 777k shares.