Member Info for pauldrayton

Does it matter if the OM outcome or FID slip into 2025? It’s been a long enough wait - what’s another few months?! That probably sounds flippant but seriously it’s taken 14 years to get to this stage since the discovery and it’s the closest we have got to project sanction. The important thing is that progress is being made and it’s clear to see Navitas are pushing Sea Lion forward. There are bound to be slippages on timescales on a project of this size, and RKH is not in control of the ICSID committee.

“Capex including FEED for Darwin is £565 million”.

How can they know what FEED will cost without even appraising the discovery or testing it? Also, BOR are not going to be in charge of FEED or what it costs.

The board have clearly put a low cost scenario forward to excite investors but the reality is likely to be very different indeed.

Tincan, there is no doubt that Darwin has potential but appraisal, FEED & development costs are going to be in excess of a billion dollars. Who is going to be willing and able to raise the funds for that, and what would they want in return (given there is still plenty of risk)?

I knew you wouldn’t be man enough to place a bet!

Fraud.

Gus0 I’ve posted a few home truths on here and you can’t cope. You have no response. You can’t even tell me what your bet was! You’ve been outed as a ramping fraud, it’s plain for all to see.

Garbled - you spent years giving hints & whispers to all & sundry trying to ramp ARG and look how that turned out.

You & gus0 are a perfect double act on BOR but the same outcome is more than likely.

But you have stated a number of falsities gus0.

In other words Garbled it’s irrelevant. Perhaps they ought to sell it because they run out of money in a couple of months.

Is the cost of that shown in their financial accounts Garbled?

If not why not?

You can be interested in a company but also not invested and relatively pessimistic about their prospects.

Why does that upset you gus0?

The trouble is that RKH don’t need a deep water rig which would be much more expensive and Navitas aren’t going to increase their costs just so BOR can drill a couple of wells.

Also if Sea Lion does go ahead there will be a rig operating in the NFB for years - can the Falklands cope with 2 rigs operating at the same time? It might be difficult logistically which would push Darwin into the long grass.

What “money” are you talking about?

BOR is worth peanuts.

What’s your bet?

Gus0 you’re making a big mistake in thinking BOR hold the cards here. The ‘board’ may have convinced you they do but I can assure you they don’t. BOR have cap in hand and are desperate. There are no white knights.

I think you’re significantly overestimating the negotiating position of BOR (who have a tiny market cap, no money and zero ability to even drill a well let alone develop Darwin), and underestimating the negotiating position of a partner who had the means to do the above.

Make no mistake, BOR are desperate and have cap in hand. They will be lucky to keep anything of value.

£175m just to prove up the existing discovery. That’s a lot of money. What’s BOR’s market cap again?

Then add in further appraisal, FEED & development costs.

What’s it actually going to cost to get Darwin into production?

Development finance isn’t easy to come by either these days.

Intoodeep,

BOR may be proposing a phased development, making it lower cost and lower production begin with. But it’s based on subsequently adding production from additional wells on Darwin East (that hasn’t been appraised) and Darwin West (that hasn’t been drilled at all).

I can’t see any potential partner taking a punt on a small initial development plan without knowing whether it can be extended in the future. Any partner spending the money to take Darwin into production is going to want to know the full size and scale of it first. It’s all well & good BOR saying it can be done with just a few wells but the reality for those making large financial decisions is very different.

Remember the Italians take August off. I suspect we will see the update on costs in September and it’s how long is a piece of string from there!

Gus0,

RKH’s partner Navitas got 65% of all NFB licenses including a fully-appraised & development-ready Sea Lion field which had years’ worth of FEED which had cost hundreds of millions of pounds.

They paid nothing for it.

So BOR are running a farm out process. What is a partner going to want in return for a single discovery well with no appraisal, no well test and no FEED?

It’s a genuine question. And I want all FI companies to do well too. I have nothing against BOR or Darwin - I’m just trying to offer a realistic assessment of their situation.

I can’t see any outcome that doesn’t involve enormous dilution at best for current shareholders but I’m intrigued as to why others may feel differently.

Phil I’m not sure what your problem is. What I’m posting is relevant to BOR, not RKH, hence here is the correct forum to discuss it. I’m guessing you don’t like it because it goes against the grain on here but nobody seems to have any answers to the questions I’ve posed which tells its own story.

Buffit, NEDs don’t generally get paid a salary. In fact their involvement is usually limited and they are often paid fairly small sums on the basis of the number of meetings they attend.

7.3 million share options for him for a period of 10 years is just a punt for him. Why not? But he’s certainly not staking his career or reputation on it.