Member Info for OWLS

FIL808,
I agree with you, most investors on these boards have very limited knowledge about individual companies, myself included. Remember there are thousands of individuals whose full time job is to analyse and invest in companies, we cannot compete with these and to pretend we know more is nonsense.

Personally my investments are based on momentum and generally I do ok.

As I have stated a number of times over the last few months, TW and most of the other builders have recently been bad investments.

Most posters on this board do not appear to have a very good record with their investments.

Perhaps you should review the way you make your "assessment" as you have obviously missed out on making substantial profits as many of us have done with Ocado.

My advice would be to spread your risk, I personally never hold more than 10% in any one share.

Having had this share at £2.80 a word I would not attribute to it is "excellent". I should have sold the dog ages ago rather than naively being influenced by those on this bulletin board with the constant talk of takeovers.

HH,
Yep that was my post, congratulations to those who have benefitted from the 60% rise, looks like I have also missed the boat. I will review at the end of the month and possible invest then.

Occasionally a share will reverse a decline like TCG did a few years ago. But most do not. I will wait for a sign of a significant reversal before I invest. I have children who now go on holiday on their own and they would never use a company like TCG, perhaps this is a sign of things to come and this business model is now broken.

Just updated my momentum tracker and PMO is still top of the list.

Tom,

I am sure that Jax did not mean it as a religious post.

Just a comment that faith doesn't play any part in my share selection process.

SOPTOPP,

I am obviously insane because I want to leave ! The only "facts" are that we will pay less to the EU and because we are a net importer we will benefit financially if we replicate any tariffs the EU place on us. Nobody knows what the other impacts will be.

Out of TCG having lost £10k over the last year, time to cut my losses. However you have to take the rough with the smooth, I made £30k a few years ago when I bought it at 20p. No point in being bitter with a particular company, it's all a bit of a gamble, nobody knows what the future holds.

JAKOBOWSKI,

I keep my faith for religion, not the stock market !

With shares, the trend is your friend and the trend with TW is down I'm afraid.

Well done? It was over £2 a year ago.

A note of caution to those who view builders as being bargains.

They are very cyclical.

Based on historical evidence when the market turns sales volumes fall, operating margins collapse and the value of assets owned by builders will need to be written down.

Housebuilders can be very good investments but only if you catch them at the right time in the economic cycle, I suspect this is not the right time.

Hi Tom,

I also voted to leave and given the attitude of the EU in the negotiations and the scaremongering of Carney etc. I am even more convinced we need to leave.

The process of leaving was never going to work with Mrs May (who wants to remain) being in charge.

Also most of the House of Commons want to remain (this shows they are not representative of the population).

I hope we leave with a no deal, pay the EU sod all and if the EU impose taxes on our exports then we impose the same taxes on their BMWs etc. We import more than we export so we will generate more tax than we pay.

If house prices fall then good, they will be more affordable and the only losers will be fat cat directors and shareholders. Buying shares is a risky business, do you not believe there is a reason why the dividend for TW is so high, it is a risky share.

When times are good house-builders do well, when there is a recession they tank. Recessions do happen and they are very difficult to predict.

I do not class 3 days long enough to be confident that momentum has changed.

In the 3 days to the 30th July the price rose by 17p to 192p, 3 days later it had fallen 32p to 160p.

The last time I bought FXPO was September 16 at 74p, it had risen for the last 1,2,3,6 and 12 month periods. It continued to rise to 292p a year later when I sold.

Over the last 10 years this share has fallen 499p to 18p and also risen from 18p to 313p so I am not going to get too excited about a movement of 17p over 3 days.

The world is full of losers who were convinced they were on a winner.

I have more winners than losers but would never claim that any share was guaranteed to gain, I would soon look foolish.

Jeffrey, I used to do the same, holding on to shares that I was losing money on. In most cases they continued to fall.

I will now sell a share that no longer meets my criteria, whether it has made money or lost money. I will replace it with a share that now meets my criteria.

If you had spare cash now would you buy IQE, VOD and GLEN? If the answer is no then you need to sell your current holding.

Momentum is a big factor in shares. Shares that have fallen in value over the last year are more likely to fall further whilst shhres that have risen in value are more likely to rise further.

PMO has more than doubled over the last year so remains very positive for me.

JEFFREY, why do you have to hold on to IQE, VOD and GLEN ?

Momentum is a big factor with commodity shares. I would be reluctant to buy until there is a significant change in direction, I may miss the start of any upturn but will avoid any further losses.

As Nige says the system isn't working.
There are not enough houses being built.
Directors receive obscene bonuses.
Shareholders receive big dividends.
More direct goverment intervention is needed with nationalisation being the ultimate option.
I doubt that many will agree with any of this as they are more concerned with personal wealth rather than creating a better, fairer society.