RE: $3.78B of profit v $80m Mcap9 Mar 2023 19:16
Cheers SH!
First the presentation - what he says looks unbelievably good, and that's with oil at a mere $75.
It's certainly worth looking at this again as it summarises the situation at the gloomiest of times, with virtually all the problems/issues raised in the presentation now history, plus a significantly larger ICSID award than RT's top estimate.
Regarding 1st oil in 2026, I'm not saying it's impossible, but for those about to bet their shirts on this project, anticipating Β£5/share in 2026, just think about:
- when's FID scheduled to be announced? - we don't know.
- when's project sanction going to be announced? - we don't know.
- if 1st oil in 2026 is really Navitas' plan, that leaves absolutely nothing to chance. Everything is going to have to go 100% to plan (which will have to be a VERY tight plan). e.g. not only will the 2nd-hand FPSO have to be acquired, but the contracting yard will have to finish the modification work without any slippage, etc., etc..
- has any of us (except M-D, who we don't even know) heard Gideon Tadmor state publicly that this is what he, IR and his team are going to deliver? No we haven't.
For those who've never managed a project of this size, don't be seduced by the smooth words of someone on a bulletin board, who you don't even know, just because it's what you want to hear.