Member Info for Ovets

Unfortunately, today's World Meteorological Organization announcement doesn't help, but Putin's war does help to focus attention on how we're going to keep the lights on, especially after a Russian spy ship seen active in the North Sea checking-out under water assets and wind farms.

OK, but there's only a VERY limited list of annulment criteria to be met, and we know what they are.
So, RoI has a correspondingly difficult job in obtaining an annulment from such a limited list.

As I've posted before, NO ONE here has so far suggested which of the annulment options might succeed in this case, so it's clearly not obvious.

Add to that the unanimous tribunal decision and I'd say the Macaronis are whistling in the wind.
I suspect they thought / hoped RKH would go bust and while it almost did, it hasn't.
Time to pay up, but I'm Sure Sam is content to accept the monthly interest if they don't.

I got the one that contained only a bar of Wonka's chocolate.

No LTT, that's Gideon Tadmor watching the ink dry on his contract!!

Oil_Up, there can really only be one 'fair valuation' (although that's likely to cover a bit of a range, because there are many unknowns / risks), but as you say, every investor will have their own acceptable valuation at which they're prepared to sell, or buy more.

We've not only seen this, but experienced it ourselves, where we're pretty sure a share is worth so much, but we're prepared to sell for less, either because of the risks, and/or we need the money, or we traded on a T+2, 3, 4, etc. and we have to sell now in order not to incur costs, etc., etc..

However, I think we can set a notional target figure, so that the completely uninformed, impatient, ditherers, weak-willed, skint, etc. at least have an idea of what this company is REALLY worth, so don't sell-out too soon to a bunch of predatory villains, like Crispen Odey, who couldn't have cared less about the future of RKH and its other shareholders.

For me, at the moment, my target is around £2 (just between you and me, but in case anyone else is reading this).
However, if the OM deadlock were suddenly to be unlocked, and Navitas were suddenly to announce something juicy about project progress, including having secured all the necessary funding with HMG suddenly offering, say, £500Million, plus signing-up the perfect FPSO, plus announcing FID and more, then £2/share would look very cheap.

Maybe you could elaborate on what you consider to be a practical, effective defence?

We're not discussing individual break-even valuations, but what would be a realistic valuation, bearing in mind the potential here, which is astronomical.
Some crook could move in and bag RKH for, say, 40p, or 60p/share, because weak-willed shareholders think that's a good price.

BB3, if you consider the potential sums involved, the RKH CGT tax liability is trivial for the sort people who might want to bid.

HappyInvester, that's why, in a recent post, I was suggesting we need to arrive at a realistic sp figure to try and ensure that weak-willed, uninformed and/or impatient PIs don't give-in to the first offer that comes along, messing it up for the rest of us.
At the time (24/4/23, 15:49), no one here seemed very interested.
I wouldn't sell for less than £2

First, just over a year ago, who'd have thought we'd be filling this BB discussing the procedures and costs for the recovery of about £200M?
While interesting, I'm happy to leave it to K&S, who stand to gain a considerable amount by getting it right - and don't forget, they're supposed to be the best in this field.

As for costs, while it's no doubt a lot of money for you and me, for those involved, it's peanuts and the RKH IIs won't let this award to slip through their fingers. Also, once SL FID is announced, there'll be little problem in raising funds, if any are needed.

As for the annulment, after all the considerable waffle on this BB since the award was announced last year, not a single person has suggested which of the very few criteria for successful annulment might apply in this case.
So I say, annulment isn't going to happen, nor a reduction in the award. In their announcement on 24/4/23, the Ad Hoc committee included reference to "..........the arbitration panel unanimously held that Italy had breached its obligations under the Energy Charter Treaty", so that's the baseline from which they are deliberating the annulment application.

I say, get on with some gardening (assuming you have a garden), leave things to K&S and enjoy watching the interest accrue.

This ICSID process isn’t necessarily like normal legal procedure (which can differ from one jurisdiction to another), but i sense the ad hoc committee is sympathetic with RKH, but mustn’t be seen to be taking sides.

It was definitely Glenrothes and he harvested a lot of PI details in his attempt to take control, when many PIs were desperate.
I think it was DEM who saw through his possible plan, but others may correct me.

Whatever the exact facts, there are undoubtedly those out there who would try and pick up RKH on the cheap and then, having got rid of us, seriously cash-in as SL moves to production.
Those like Glenrothes would offer what some smaller PIs might consider a 'good price' for their shares, but would actually be daylight robbery.
One way of helping to defend ourselves from Glenrothes and his aliases / successors is to try and arrive at a realistic valuation for RKH shares, so that the weaker, or more impatient shareholders don't sell us out, to a bunch of thieves, for peanuts.

As I said, it's fine to ask questions if you're not sure what's going on - hopefully we do that all our lives.
The point was that it's NOT fine then to call others ignorant.

No Latics, Mogger is the one who regularly researches and produces excellent factual material.
As for your ignorance, please don't forget that you were the one who asked: if Navitas are going to use an FPSO, then what would they want a rig for?

It's OK to ask questions, when you don't understand what's going on, but don't then call others 'ignorant'.

Any idea in which time zone the announcement is to be made?

I'm expecting it this week, but I'm also used to having to wait and wait and wait--------etc., so resigned to doing just that.

Lifting the stay would be highly desirable. I would see that as indicative of the the ad hoc committee's attitude towards their eventual ruling on the annulment.
They've got a long way to go before that's announced, but I suspect they've already formed some initial opinions, after all, there's a shed-load of arbitration tribunal material on file for them to get a pretty good idea, and as we've already said, their unanimous decision isn't without merit.

Suppose we've just got to let them get on with it.

Bloody 'ell - 'lifted' NOT 'listed'

LTT, how about we take the afternoon off? Meet you at the pub!

Not 'afford' - should be 'affect'.

LTT, is your condition contagious?

Good point - my understanding is that if Italy fails to pay the ICSID award, that will materially afford the RoI's ability to borrow. The usual outcome of that is they'll have to pay higher interest on loans, so it's really VERY important.
From the Italian PoV, to try and annul this annoying award to a tin-pot nothing of a company based in Salisbury, well known to Russian tourists for its spire.
From a RKH PoV, as long as we can keep holing on (and the II shareholders will help to ensure they do) we've more-or-less got the macaronis by the borrox, because the unanimous award decision virtually rules out an annulment and probably any award reduction too. So we just harvest the monthly interest and if the stay is listed, K&S can move-in on Italian assets.

Agreed LTT - clearly you had a good night's sleep, which is more than I had.