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takeitorleaveit, I don't think the decision to go ahead will be solely because of Sea Lion (although that's a very good start, and you have to start somewhere with something big enough to make it worthwhile actually getting started), but because of the much bigger prospects in the region, so the North Sea comparison is very real.

Like in my house buying analogy, it's a very complicated and expensive process launching a brand new oil production region, which is also a pristine natural area. So it's hardly surprising it's taking time and effort, particularly with an unpredictable oil price, a partner still deep in debt and uncertainty about the political future of Argentina.

As others are saying (and just like with the house buying analogy), PMO could still pull the plug on this, but in the mean time, if they stand any chance of going into production and making big money, they've got to get on with it:
- obtaining adequate finance, which I’m reliably told includes UK Export Credit facility. As well as engaging HMG, which wants its defence expenditure refunded, this will give confidence for commercial financial involvement;
- sorting out the environmental issues;
- finalising the production methodology details (based on the FPSO systems they're already using in the North Sea);
- negotiating/agreeing the taxation regime;
- finalising service contracts – some here ridiculed the LoI’s already issued as not being worth the paper they’re written on. For those ignorant pessimists, that’s part of the procedure. OK, so a LoI may not be a final binding contract, but you have to get your service contracts lined-up and the service providers need to know who they’re going to be, what’s needed and when;
- identifying sites in the FI. The FI has already announced a number of sites for various purposes, reserved for oil production and service support;
- advertising the new posts to be filled, recruiting and training staff for the FI;
- the list goes on and we know that all this is happening now.

So for the miserable few who pour cold water on this, yes, things could happen to derail the whole project, just like in the house purchasing analogy, right up to completion, but one doesn’t usually start such a process without the intention of completing.
I’m already very nicely in profit, so while I understand the risks, otherwise I can’t really find much wrong with this share right now and I don’t assume it’s a one-way bet.
So for the likes of Wancos, Ralphybabes and Kurgan with their inane repetitive moaning, the only explanation is they’ve lost shed loads of money on this one. With each new post, they’re telling us: “Hello folks, me again, just to remind myself that I’m VERY cross because I’ve bet and lost all our savings. I just post this stuff to try and upset those who are doing better than I am and the Mrs (assuming she even knows about this) is livid with me for being such a tit”!

Let me help you Comertoes, iz "nieve" tha wrod U woz scraching 4?!!

Comertoes, the "expert" opinions of those who can't even spell are probably not even worth reading, especially if one has to spend the rest of the day trying to interpret what the drivel means!

I would agree that FID has already been decided, but won't be announced just yet.
It's just like when you buy anything, or trade in shares, you've made the decision, but the transaction is only completed when you pay the money, or press the "buy/sell" button. So it is here - they know they've got to get on with this one, hence the LoIs, and adverts for jobs, etc., but the actual announcement will happen when all the ducks have been aligned.

The 2019 announcement is for programme sanction. I suppose it's a bit like house purchasing:
- you agree the price and instruct solicitors;
- you do your searches, arrange your mortgage and all that stuff;
- exchange of contracts and pay your deposit;
- completion day - in this case that would be project sanction in 2019.

Anyone who's bought a house knows that it takes time and that during the period when searches are being done and mortgage is being arranged, just because others can't see anything going on, doesn't mean you're NOT buying the house. It's just the same here, only a lot more complicated (if that's possible!).

When considering a project on this scale, one has to be somewhat sceptical about the "expert" opinions of those who can't even spell.

Some of the "experts" clearly haven't the remotest idea what's entailed when trying to open-up a new oil/gas region in a pristine and very remote region, post Deepwater Horizon, with all the worries and formalities that created, plus the recent experiences of:
- The catastrophic Erik Raude drilling campaign, which managed to waste vast sums, bankrupting FOGL;
- PoO having collapsed to around $26/barrel. The PoO recovery still isn't guaranteed;
- A partner that was £2Bn in debt and is only just starting to pay-off that debt;
- Serious threats from the Argentinean government;

It should also be remembered that in his parting address, Keith Padgett warned those in the FI who followed him that oil companies believed: "that we are simple yokels that can be quickly dealt with and quietly ignored", and " I am confident that we don’t need oil to have a successful future" and "In the final analysis, if a mutually beneficial situation cannot be achieved, the oil should be left in the ground (or under the sea)".

so while a cut in tax might seem a very good incentive to get this programme started, there may be those in the FIG who remember Mr Padgett's warnings and are determined not to be seen as those "simple yokels" he referred to.

Again Ralphybabes, why the anger?
No one's saying the FI owes the Argies anything (except maybe some Argies) - although most Argies are actually pretty reasonable people, who've been shat on by the likes of the Voluptuous Cristina.

Yes, there are pockets of Nationalists, who want the Malvinas, but aren't there some pretty unsavoury oiks in the UK too, who make more noise than the ordinary decent people who just get on with life?

Working together with Argentina would massively increase the value of the reserves, but as I've already said, I just wonder how much one could trust their government in a long term relationship - it's when things start to go wrong that governments, who want to stay in power, start misbehaving and drumming up old enmities, aimed at those uneducated enough to fall for it (a bit like some on this BB).

My God, Ralphybabes, you really are a "glass half empty", or in your case, "glass completely empty" sort of person, in which case I don't understand why you waste your time here, unless your objective is to try and depress everyone.

I don't think anyone has suggested the FIG, or anyone else should share any of the FI's oil & gas reserves, but there really are terrific opportunities for everyone to gain by sharing expertise and facilities, turning the region into a mega oil/gas production centre before it's too late.

If one considers what has happened between Britain and Germany and our relationship now, one could imagine a situation where the FIG and Argentina work together to create this new mega-production region, but my concern would be what happens if Macri doesn't get re-elected and/or, what happens when his second term (if he gets it) ends.

Just in the same way that RKH cannot trust an Italian government over its OM claim, I suspect the FIG and HMG might have serious misgivings about trusting a long-term closer relationship with Argentina.

There's some really interesting synergy to be had here, if there hadn't been so much squabbling (a bit like this BB) - the UK and Argentina could work together.
Not particularly optimistic right now, as Macri already has to start thinking about getting re-elected next year. That's the trouble with democracy, the horizons are often too short for politicians to be able to make difficult/controversial decisions.

It's not just the access to closer, mainland refining facilities, it's things like all other administrative and engineering support and, of course, larger airports for scheduled long-haul flights, which at the moment are not available to the FI. And the St Helena airport attempt at providing a stepping stone for smaller aircraft hasn't lived up to the promises.

If the Brits and the Argies can get their act together, the Argies will want to exploit their reserves before it's too late - (after a summer like this, politicians will be under even greater pressure to cut fossil fuel emissions) and the UK is probably one of the best qualified to partner such activities in such a region.

There'll always be demand for some oil & gas, but opening-up new regions like this will probably be much less likely, as World consumption/demand falls, so real incentives to get on with it.

Sorry Giblets - it would have been Sam who bought the vase and not Wanco, so if I bump into Peter Bainbridge, next time in Waitrose, I'll ask him why he sold Sam a cheepo vase (only £3.5M), rather than one of his £50M ones!!
Sam better not drop it, or else Wanco'll have another fit!

Giblets, I think you're being a bit unkind to our friend Wanco!
Didn't you know that a "pention" is a very valuable type of Chinese vase?
Think Wanco got it off that geezer in Ruislip, who sold another one for about £50Million a few years ago, or maybe I'm just confused and can't spell either?

Quite so Tuggy - the only explanation I can think of is it's lost an absolute packet on RKH, but the villains of the piece are the PoO and Tony Durrant for ousting Simon Lockett (who was really keen to press on with Sea Lion). Sam is really as much of a passenger as we are and if he doesn't get paid, he'll be off too.

But it can't vent its anger on either the PoO, or Tony Durrant, so comes here instead and makes a tit of itself by shouting at Sam..

Thanks guys - I must say that if we were having this chat in the pub and some random oik butted-in and started abusing us for our views, I'm sure we'd all tell him to bu@@er off, at the very least.
So I wonder why these oiks considered themselves so privileged, just because it's a virtual chat and they know we can't do to them what I'm sure most of us would do face-to-face.

Good find - you're like a bloomin' ferret!

Do you know, that thought occurred to me the other day, then I forgot to post it!

That chap was particularly keen on using the "F-word" and then he fell asleep in his chair, so there are differences!

Something else, which I was heckled for discussing on the ii BB, is the relationship with Argentina and which Tony Durrant mentioned.
One can debate just how important this is, by comparison with the other issues affecting the FI, one of which is that the FI are exceptionally remote.
It has been suggested that the new St Helena airport was built partly as a stepping stone to the FI, but that has turned out to have been a proper muddle, leaving the FI more-or-less as remote as they were before.

While the threats from the Voluptuous Cristina may have been somewhat empty, she certainly milked the Malvinas thing to help remain in power and it's been confirmed that Argentine special forces were planning a raid in 2015 to occupy one of the F islands.

There's no doubt that the PoO was and is the major factor, but in that remote, hostile atmosphere, the remoteness of the FI and constant nationalistic hostility from Argentina didn't help encourage interested companies to join the party.

As Durrant says, UK relationships with Argentina under Macri have improved immeasurably, but he has to stand for re-election next year, so the spectre of a hostile neighbour hasn't completely disappeared.
You might say that Argentina isn't that much of a problem, but it is the nearest neighbour and perhaps just as important, Latin American countries tend to join forces, especially if they have their own internal problems and deflecting attention onto an old colonial power can distract the population.

So in answer to your question, relationships with Argentina are important and are currently very good and improving.

It's not that Wancos' answers are narrow minded, they're just plain idiotic, inarticulate, repetitive and frequently don't even make sense, which is why I've put it on ignore.
Most of us here have visions of a particularly angry old pensioner, who's lost a packet on RKH and who can just about manage a keyboard to vent its anger (mainly for having been such a clown as to have lost all their savings).
It posts its tripe while the Mrs is down the pub, which is why it comes in bursts.
When Mrs Wancos gets home she confiscates the keyboard and after giving him a good beating, tells it to do something useful!

Try reading again what I wrote, then you may get it right.
Particularly when dealing with large numbers, attention to detail is pretty important.

and, Kurgan, it's only "a dog" if you lose money on it.
And no, I didn't buy them all at once. Thanks to the derampers/shorters, the sp dropped below 20p more than once AND hovered around 22/23p for ages, shouting "BUY ME!", which I did.
As I said earlier, I couldn't care less what happens to the oil - it can stay where it is as far as I'm concerned, as I've already made a lovely tax free profit.

Actually, I think this one IS going to be sanctioned and then who knows where the sp will go, but I don't intend getting my fingers burnt by hanging on indefinitely.

Not very good at maths are you!