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Ralphybabes/Ollie/Kurgy, like you, we're all convinced that Jerry is going to be PM next week and his first priority will be to hand the FI to the Argies.

So keep up all your excellent posts - I read them to the grandchildren every night and you'll be pleased to hear they fall asleep almost immediately!

What the Eff has Corbyn got to do with the price of fish?

Come on Ralphybabes, you're going to have to do better than that.

Anyway, we're still all waiting for you, Ollie & Kurgy (you wouldn't all be the same person would you?) to produce just ONE RECENT negative review/comment about RKH.

Don't know why Ralphy wastes his time here if he doesn't believe in anything - must have a lot of time on his hands!

Anyway, if you consider the sp doesn't put any value on Sea Lion, or the rest of the FI region reserves, doesn't put any value on a possible payout from the ECT claim and only a modest valuation for Egyptian assets he certainly doesn't show much acumen

If you also consider that you're effectively buying a US Dollar-denominated commodity with an ever-devaluing Pound, the prospect of the sp exceeding £5, once production starts, increases each day as the Pound falls with the World's assessment of the Brexit shambles.

Maybe it's the best way to "get on with it" without having to wait for the construction of expensive new buildings?

While the F Islanders may not want their place to become another Dubai, if this takes off, they're going to have to expect quite a bit of new development.
Maybe the FIG have in mind providing at least some temporary accommodation/facilities, which can be dismantled more easily in the future?

However, I see this more as being one way of quickly accommodating a sudden increase in work force.

Whatever the truth, it indicates grabbing a few more FIH Group shares, before they take off, as it looks as though they want to use their presence in the FI to maximise FIC profits from the Oil Rush.

Why don't you report us to Mummy and after she's given you the good kicking you deserve, maybe she can find you some jobs to keep you out of mischief.
Now, run along you little TW*T

Don't be such a boring TW*T Ollie

FWIW, I think Kurgybabe's latest contribution is REEELY illuminating and if you take all 3 posts together, they can almost be made to rhyme, so I'm just setting them to music and will be claiming the publishing rights to add to my RKH profits!
Happy Days (or should that be Daze?)

Cheers chaps!

Don't forget that if PMO start playing silly beggars, SM might come to shareholders, saying something like: "Look folks, we're all fed up with this waiting and with Tony Durrant. I've had a few interesting offers, and while you're not going to get that £5/share you all dreamed of, I can get at least £1 right now and probably a bit more",

After all, it's not as though RKH hasn't got anything to offer.
Also, as falklandinvestor said: "One day All the North Basin will be owned by a single oil company", so any bidder might have in mind mopping-up ARG licence areas too?

Whatever the case, I wouldn't worry, unless you're banking on the £5/share that some seem to be expecting.
£5/share is possible, but only when oil is being produced and if RKH still exists, so sleep tight and just wait for the announcement!

Yeah, poodle, are you maybe suffering a bit of Autumnal blues?

The points you make are worthwhile and shouldn't be dismissed, but there are several counter-arguments, which I believe are more likely.
Tony Durrant is perfectly capable of having thought of this and may even be capable of doing it, but he'd have to weigh-up the pros & cons before doing anything quite so unscrupulous.

If the PoO collapses again, then we're more-or-less doomed, but PMO would be doubly-doomed, so we're all counting on PoO remaining at reasonable levels for the foreseeable future.

Assuming the PoO remains at reasonable levels, it's not as though RKH have no assets against which to raise funds should it need to do so, although it's not what shareholders would wish for, but it would mean that PMO might have to wait for a very long time before RKH could be picked-off in the way you suggest.
Even assuming the ECT claim fails and there's no additional revenue from Egypt, during that long wait PMO would probably be better off getting into production and earning production revenue.

Someone needs to do a clever spread sheet showing how the PoO and production revenue from Sea Lion compares with waiting for RKH to go bust (which is by no means guaranteed) and whether it isn't just better for PMO to get on with it with a solvent RKH.

My personal opinion is that PMO are probably more likely to want to get on with this and perhaps even sacrifice Zama to raise the finance to have the FI region (which it has already stated) as its prime production location.

I think we can waste a lot of time discussing the RKH/Italian Govt./ECT thing, which really is becoming a bit of a distraction.
My understanding is:
- The case is very strong;
- RKH is using the ECT because of its greater probability of success, which is why the Italian Govt. has already tried every trick to avoid the claim, but so far has failed;
- It's being conducted on a No-Win-No-Fee basis;
- If judgement is in RKH's favour, then payment is virtually guaranteed (unlike the other irrelevant examples frequently given on this BB about other claims) and quite quickly too (unlike the other irrelevant examples frequently given on this BB about other claims);
- Judgement can include substantial loss of profits awards (unlike the other irrelevant examples frequently given on this BB about other claims);
- Judgement is due in about 5 months, so not long to wait;

BUT: we'll only have the money once it's in the RKH account and RKH certainly shouldn't plan anything on the strength of it, which I don't believe they are doing.

Was that action via the ECT?

I'm inclined to agree that the poodle's assessment is on the gloomy side (you're not suffering from 'flu are you?!), although one should always make sure the finances balance, otherwise disaster is the likely outcome.
However, in this case, I believe the finances do balance, probably to the end of 2019 and that's without the ECT judgement or additional income from Egypt.
While I also believe there's a very good chance of the ECT judgement being in our favour, every sensible litigant should understand that you don't count on money from a judgement that hasn't even been given yet. Once given, though, the prospects for payment would be very high indeed, unlike through the Italian Courts.

I think that it's "steady as she goes" right now and no need to panic.

That's why RKH chose to follow the ECT route, so that in the event of a favourable outcome/judgement, there wouldn't have to be dragging of feet and further litigation.
A successful applicant can seize Italian government assets in the UK to the value of the award.

Also, an award CAN include lost production income, although that would be a subjective figure, which I wouldn't expect to be in the $100s of Millions that some have quoted. Even so, it could be a sizeable amount.

On a no-win-no-fee basis, this really has to be a very attractive cherry on the cake, but I wouldn't value the RKH sp on just this.

Eh?

Rockhopper Exploration
Nothing particularly surprising in the Rockhopper results today although I would say things look like they might be hotting up a touch in the Falklands, particularly on the operational front. For the starter, the small stuff, a good well in Egypt and a big reduction in the receivables, not hugely exciting but clearly good news and the Italian arbitration now only 5 months away which could be pretty meaningful.

For the main course, Sea Lion, where momentum is building as is the size of the project team and with pre sanction activity ramping up things must be looking positive, contractors are signed up, FEED awards being made and negotiations with the FIG who are happy with progress. So nothing is changing operationally as gradually all the boxes are being ticked which pretty much leaves the project financing which seems to be progressing as hoped. I expect that with oil at current levels thus creating a pretty solid set of economics, project sanction in mid 2019 is still a very realistic probability.

Good try, ralphybabes - keep up your relentless optimism!

OMG - sp just won't stop going UP - ralphybabes, kurgan, ollie, markap and all the rest of the experts must be despairing!

Christ - with all the misery, I forgot to mention the REALLY terrible news, the sp is UP today!

Yeah yeah, RKH runs out of cash, Sam runs out of the office, shareholders run out of the window or over Beachy Head.

Sounds like the shorters are back in town, or maybe those who've lost an effin' fortune and haven't told the Mrs yet.

Ralphybabes, show us the bit which says "Sea Lion is cancelled and the BoD is off to the races to squander what's left of the cash balance".

FFS, how the hell do you think you can produce oil in a pristine and remote part of the world without spending money?
Ever managed a project of any description? I think not.