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Totally agree Nigoil - certainly no reason to panic that today's POO means that SL won't happen.
Of course, POO could fall further - that we just don't know right now, but the real thing is that TD and the PMO BOD aren't using today's POO to make their decision. They're interested to guess what the POO is likely to be at/from first oil and how long production can run before the POO finally collapses as alternative energy sources provide the needs of, say, 10 billion humans (or more).​
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SL is definitely going ahead, whatever anyone says, although it could be delayed further, if it looks as though the POO would not make it profitable enough. For that, the POO would have to fall and stay low​ and no one's forecasting that.
One plus point, regarding PMO's debt, is that PMO badly needs SL production to pay-down their debt and the only other field available to them, Zama-1, is even less advanced - it hasn't even be appraised yet.​
So the theory that Zama-1 might be sold-off after appraisal, leaving PMO to get on with SL is a very credible one.​
While the POO is fundamentally important, today's POO isn't.

Clearly Kurgy hasn't a bloody clue, obviously doesn't believe in this and probably hasn't any money left, otherwise he'd be scooping-up RKH at these prices.
To post: "Hilarious .I wouldnt give RKH the steam off my £#!7 let alone buy any more .you guys can keep em" shows this guy's clueless and finally flipped

I don't believe this is an "oil price crash".
OK it's fallen by quite a percentage, but when it was into the mid-$80s, that really was too high in the current economic situation.
So rather than this be a "crash", the $80s was a bit of exuberance. Economists prefer the POO at about this level, if World trade isn't going to be impacted, with too much meddling going on at the moment, not least with Trump and his trade war with China and re-imposing sanctions on Iran. The World doesn't need that now and POO in the $80s could probably be enough to start another economic crisis.

As far as RKH is concerned, POO at around $65 is fine, not a collapse. 2018 started with the POO at around this level, when it was considered just fine, particularly if you consider that in January 2016, it fell to about $27.

One point the "expert posters" keep repeating here is about the POO, as it is now.
OK, that has an effect on PMO's ability to reduce it's debt pile, but even at the current price, it's still at the upper end envisaged by TD only a few months ago, when predicting how things would go for PMO.
As for RKH, we're such a meagre producer that it doesn't have much affect on our finances at the moment, except that it is profitable and likely to increase as Egypt becomes more important.
On a World economic level, $80 - $85 might seem attractive for oil company profitability, but economists prefer a lower figure as we enter an economically shaky period. Rather than the drop to around $65 being a "collapse" in the oil price, perhaps it would be more sensible to see the rise to around $85 as being too high a market reaction, which would be likely to stifle economic growth.
Whatever the view, $65 is a more realistic figure - let's hope that OPEC take action on 6/12/18 to maintain POO at around that level in 2019.

As for SL FID, TD and his BoD aren't looking at today's POO to make their decision, but what it's likely to be at/from first oil, so all the bleating about the recent "collapse" in POO is irrelevant and misleading regarding SL FID. I think we should keep and eye on the Katowice conference next month, which follows-on from the Paris Agreement, which could give us an idea about the likely POO in the mid-2020s. However, signatories have got to adhere to any agreement, which so far hasn't been very evident.

You're wrong about Italy not giving a rats about the ECT, because (as we've already discussed ad nauseam),the ECT really is unfairly weighted in favour of the claimant (that's us) and allows successful claimants to seize assets to the value of the award, which in this case would allow RKH to seize Italian state assets in the UK.

As for the POO, of course there are many options, but what most here seem to be forgetting is we're not talking about today's oil price, but what it's likely to be at/from first oil.
After 2014, I suspect that even the best actuaries would be nervous about giving an exact POO so far into the future, but the very best "oil experts" see the price hardening because there's been so little exploration by the oil majors and renewables simply cannot provide the energy needed for quite some time yet.

On a planet pollution level, we should all be very worried about this, but as RKH shareholders, nothing's going to slow humanity's greed for living too comfortably, probably until the balloon goes up, when it'll be too late - it probably is already.

Anyone who doubts whether oil has any future, despite the IPCC report doesn't understand just how dependent humanity is on low-cost energy.
We're going to need oil & gas for a few more decades as world population grows, humans continue to live too comfortably and renewables are unable to provide an adequate alternative - eventually oil consumption will fall, but by then the planet will probably have been trashed.
Whatever the actual outcome, the FI oil will be extracted. The UK may make all the right environmental noises, but the FIG is already well advanced in preparing for their once-in-eternity bonanza, which they're not going to forfeit.
Despite making all the right noises, HMG would like greater energy independence from oil producing states with dubious credentials and reliability, so they're not going to get in the way of this one - more likely they're going to help fund it with Export Credit finance.
I agree with Giblets, that if we've heard nothing about FID by March 2019, then I'd be getting a bit worried, but at least by then we'll have heard the verdict of the ECT claim against Italy, even if we haven't got the money!
Also, we'll have heard about progress in Egypt.

Anyone who was expecting SL FID news in PMO's RNS yesterday is a tit, because TD had already said in August that it would be later, so those betting on hearing something yesterday weren't paying attention.

As I said in an earlier post, the only serious clouds I can see are a collapse in POO, which is unlikely and we should hear from OPEC on 6/12/18 and the Peronists getting back in, in next year's election.

PMO having such vast debts doesn't help things move quickly, but on the other hand, with potential lenders being ultra-cautious, they're going to make sure that every "I" is dotted and every "T" crossed before FID is announced, so you can be sure that if/when it happens, a VERY thorough job will have been done.

Still bleating Ralphy? Please don’t say that you didn’t buy-in at sub-25p. Now that really would be a shame wouldn’t it.

It’s not what I’m hearing Clearly PMO won’t want to broadcast their plans, which might undermine their negotiating position, but just about everyone I’ve spoken to believes that Zama-1 is currently collateral and will be sold to the highest bidder to drive down their debt pile.

One other thing I didn't mention is that it depends on your starting point.
I bought my first RKH shares in 2006 and sold in October 2010, then bought back in, buying as many as we could afford (in ISAs) sub-20p, so our starting position is very different to those who bought above £1, or higher.
So while some may be right about a "sp collapse", from where they started, in our case we're still perfectly happy, even at today's price.

There are really only 2 dark grey/black clouds at the moment:
1. Another POO collapse - unlikely as we all saw what that did after 2014, while failing to unseat Putin, but we can expect POO to fluctuate;
2. The Peronists get back in in the 2019 election and try to re-energise the de Kirchner policies. Macri hasn't been as successful as many hoped, but in less than 4 years, it was asking a lot. Return of the Peronists would be bad news, but not enough to stopp SL going ahead. However, it would make things more difficult, just as things seemed to be improving, and the tangible outcome would be added cost;

I'm not stupid enough to rely on the infrequent smooth words from our BoD. I've been researching the FI thing for decades, so I'm not fooled by smooth words. I talk to real people, who have real jobs that rely on the outcome and to other investors who have researched it too, so (assuming the dark clouds mentioned above don't get in the way), this is going to be very big indeed, but it's taking a lot of preparation, as you can imagine if the lead business (PMO) is so heavily in debt and asking people to invest big money in a brand new region.
Zama is likely to be the significant collateral to finalise the Export Credit finance, which is probably already largely agreed.

So no, I'm not "bullish", but realistic and have been involved with things like this many times before. Some failed, but I recognise the signs now and this one's OK.

Well, having contributed to trashing the RKH sp and probably then filled your boots, scooping-up the cheap shares left behind as the timid shareholders fled in despair, you all seem very quiet today.
"Job done" is it?

Unlike the Ollie/Raphy/Kurgy/CarrotNibbler/etc., but like Biffa, I actually attend AGMs, not only of the oil & exploration companies, but also the likes of FIH Group, who trade in the FI region and are even more interested than us lot in the prospects for oil production there.
It's from speaking to those who really know what's going on that one can obtain a realistic picture and I completely agree with the Biffa, particularly about the Export Credit Finance.
How anyone can post rubbish "facts" like the EC funding isn't going to happen is just wrong, misleading and discredits the author/poster.
This is a massively complex and expensive project and no one's going to announce anything until the ducks are aligned.
That some service providers feel able to publicise what they have been about contracts is evidence of solid progress.
So to Ollie/Raphy/Kurgy/CarrotNibbler/etc., if you haven't got a sensible contribution to make, shut up and bugger off.

The monetising of Zama story has been doing the rounds for several months, so is quite feasible.

Whatever was said in the interview, on 23/8/18 TD said FID would be in 3 to 6 months' time, which was less than 3 months ago, so why the big surprise today?
If FID isn't going to be this year, is everyone forgetting that 2019 is less than 7 weeks away, during which time there are all the Christmas/New Year distractions, so not exactly a long time to wait.

Ollie/Kurg/Ralph/etc. must either be spectacularly stupid to have paid top dollar, lost a packet and now publicly trashing their means of recovering their losses, in which case they should be posting: "we're the idiots who've lost all our money, can't bring ourselves to admit it, so we insult everyone else" OR they're doing exactly what Biffa suggests.

There's absolutely no doubt this will eventually recover and then take off - all the evidence supports this, in which case any sensible investor (NOT trader) will be buying as many of these discarded shares as they can afford, today being a particular opportunity.

Reminds me a bit of an officer's WW1 diary, which reported British troops discarding their heavy great coats in hot September 1914, only 3 to 4 months later wishing like hell they'd hung on to them.
So it'll be with RKH shares, so as the idiots discard them for a song, snap them up while you can.

Yes Booty - certainly not "crap" as some have posted and probably enough to guarantee RKH's independence, and/or negotiate a high TO price, if it ever comes to that.

I'd say that the biggest hot potato when acquiring OM would have been the environmental issue, which might reimpose restrictions on operations close to the Italian coast.

As I said before, Italian governments change, like the wind round a bonfire, so while it might have been "full steam ahead" today at the time of the acquisition, anyone familiar with Italy would know that tomorrow could be very different, so I reckon the lack of due diligence thing, is a complete red herring.
Whatever the serial moaners say here, our BOD actually seems pretty astute and to buy an Italian asset, which had previously been subject to off-shore environmental restrictions, without dotting the "I"s and crossing the "T"s would have been unthinkable.

Anyway, the reason they're going with the ECT, is precisely because the Macaronis are even more slippery than an ocean of eels, and the Macaronis don't like being out-witted by a one-horse Eeeenglish outfit from Salisbury, of all places. Maybe the Italians are in league with the Russians? Sam - make sure you wipe every door handle first.

Cheers, I'd like to add that a "compromise valuation" might still be pretty big, but if the award is cripplingly big (for Italy), that will only end in a drawn-out appeal process, as the Italian Govt tries to put off the inevitable.

So we have to be realistic, but even the most pessimistic articles on this one concede that RKH is almost certain to be awarded a substantial sum.

Suffering from a bad cold/flu, my brain isn't working today.
Even allowing for increased taxes, etc., I can't see how a higher POO wouldn't give some additional profit, or am I picking up fag ends?
There ought to be a graph somewhere showing the relationship.

Anyway, in the case of RKH v. Italy, I doubt if we'd be awarded more than a compromise valuation.

In any case, how can one speculate in this way, if we don't have access to papers submitted by either party?

I'm sure RKH would have wanted reassurance about the risks that the Italian government might reimpose restrictions (after all, Italian governments change like the wind does round a bonfire), so no doubt there is some record about this?
If not, would King & Spalding have taken on the case on a no-win-no-fee basis? I doubt it.