BUYING OPPORTUNITY AHEAD for NEXT15 Feb 2017 16:55
NEXT is an exciting business, and a rare gem to the characteristics of the company. The shares are down by 50% because of lower earnings guidance of between -2% and -14%.
I feel the shares are down because the company return too much cash to its shareholders than it makes in profit. Therefore a fall in earnings leads to smaller payouts (an equivalent of a dividend cut).
NEXT has a lot of competitive advantages, these are:
1. Earning 20% in operating margins and has never fallen below 10% in 18 years.
They beat BOOHOO and ASOS of which its margins are between 4% and 7%, respectively. And beat luxury retailer Burberry’s 17% margins.
All three businesses have higher P/S and P/E numbers than NEXT!
2. Okay, I grant that ASOS and BOOHOO are growing faster, but regarding the PEG ratio, NEXT is lower on 0.61, compared with BOOHOO’s 0.93 and ASOS’s 5.04.
3. NEXT PLC online division is earning 25% net margin helped by interest income fees from their credit card services, which accounts for 50% of online earnings and 33% of total group earnings.
4. Unlike some businesses, NEXT has to deliver the goods to justify its valuation where the EPS doubled from £2.21/share in 2011 to £4.42/share in 2016.
For the not so positive things about NEXT PLC.
NEXT’s management is right to be realistic (whether this reflect an optimism or a pessimistic view), this relate to the rise in input costs of 5% or specifically £29m from
A. National Living Wage;
B. Energy taxes;
C. Wage Inflation;
D. Website improvements.
Other adverse points of NEXT PLC are:
1. NEXT PLC’s consistently record NEGATIVE like-for-like sales but still manage to earn extraordinary operating margins.
2. This leads to the company’s retail division reporting declining revenue per SQ. Ft. from £1,000 to £650, while tripling in sizes.
3. Despite the large dividends give away, the company cash balance is under £70m, therefore NEXT need to churn out exceptional results year after year.
Where are we now
On a historical valuation basis, NEXT looks undervalue from the latest financial numbers. Future results for 2017 and especially 2018 will see if this market is right to justify today’s valuation.
To read more of this analysis, the full post here: http://bit.ly/2ljTHtm