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Looking beyond today’s results, we note the following factors: - Since 2004 Revenue grew from £552m to £2,216.50m, an average growth of 11.3%. Net income rose from £52m to £151.7m. Net Cash profit rose from £68m to £299.2m. Total Assets rose from £1,254m to £5,598m, with total liabilities increased from £600.7m to £3,654m. However, EPS fell from 80.2 pence to 49 pence, thanks to increasing share count! Finally, dividends per share remain ROUGHLY unchanged during the period at 32 pence. This is despite dividends rising from £22m to £101m. On Greene King Cash Position Since 2014, Greene King includes a liquidity facility loan of £157.5m in cash and cash equivalent, that facility is REPAYABLE ON DEMAND. Therefore, it doesn’t belong in that category!! By excluding it, the cash balance is £285.5m. On Greene King Debt mountain Debt is high, but in relation to properties, it accounts for 65% of total properties. On Greene King, Operating Lease Since the acquisition of Spirit Pubs, Greene King total operating lease went from £26m to over £1,353m in a year. This will lead to higher rental costs for the future. On Greene King’s share price On balance, the company is fairly valued, given that it will experience some cost pressures. A credible entry point for the shares would be £6.20-£6.30 per share price if operational performance continues to improve. However, a financial crisis or an economic recession in the UK would be damaging to its share price. For detailed analysis, click http://bit.ly/2s6iQZ2

Wrote about this company last year and warned people that the cash in their balance sheet isn't transparent because accounting and auditing in China are more obscured than in West. Don't you find it strange that a company with 5 TIMES cash over MKT.CAP. FAILS to report their results? A different company would be dying to report their numbers. Here is a re-cap of my analysis HERE: - http://bit.ly/2tsq0LM Also, I noticed Leon Boros has made some positive comments on my post at Stockopedia. Thanks for the kind words!! You can read it here: - http://bit.ly/2s51tIh

Results looked OK. Here are some things you should know: - It is profoundly clear the weak British Pound is affecting their biggest division “Microfiltration”, which accounts for two-thirds of revenue. Revenue growth in the last four years have average 9% and grew by 45% overall. Meanwhile, operating profits saw average growth of 11.2% and 53% overall growth. The big surprise is operating cash profits are down two years straight, with operating cash flow falling from £3.055m to £1.57m. If you look at net operating cash flow that collapsed from £2.4m to £0.1m!! To know why this is happening and to see more analysis on today’s interim results, click http://bit.ly/2sNHZdY Meanwhile, for those favouring a longer-term analysis, which includes: 1. Divisional breakdown analysis; 2. Acquisition of J. G. Finneran Associates, Inc; 3. Market Opportunities and Growth; 4. Profitability trends; 5. Debt and Pension assessment; 6. Dividend coverage; 7. Pricing competitiveness, and 8. My Share Price Forecast, then My overall conclusion, this is a company to own, but ONLY if the share price corrects by 25%, according to the fundamentals, technical and forecasts for the next two years. For more, click here: http://bit.ly/2thcTws

D4T4 Solutions look promising on the surface but dig deep and you expose some weaknesses by crunching ratios and spotting trends. Today, results were a mixed bag, which is why the shares are getting sold off heavily (down 11%). These are the concerns: - 1. Earnings are being slightly distorted by changes in receivables and payables. 2. Recurring revenue isn’t growing meaning projects are “one-off” gigs. 3. Cash Balance volatility. 4. UK operations seeing a major decline? 5. Slow growth from a small software firm. But, my major concern is they rely on ONE major customer that accounts for 50% of group sales for the last two years. If that contract disappears, D4T4 shares will tank. On the flip-side, we can say a few positive things: - 1. Business is growing in the last decade; 2. The Celebrus acquisition is yielding positive integration (sales of £5m, up from £2m in two years); 3. Licensing division is growing lightning fast (50% and 25% growth in the past two years); 4. Low debt levels; 5. Despite, slight earnings manipulation, they are much higher than two to three years ago. This is evident from net cash earnings. For more charts and analysis, click http://bit.ly/2sdQoJ9

With the share price, close to record highs (though down quite a bit today), here are my thoughts: - 1. Photo-Me decision to expand was the right one because revenue has gone down for years. Now it has a laundry unit that is growing fast. 2. The decision to increase dividends payout was wrong because Photo-Me is expanding and should be deploying cash towards that objective. That £32m payout was equivalent to 5% market cap. and contributed to a £25m in cash outflow. But, expect that was a one-off event!! 3. The laundry unit is looking to balance their photo booth unit as sales grow by 80% to £21m. They want to operate 6,000 units by 2020. Currently, it has 3,251 units. 4. With higher future capital expense, expect Photo-Me to start borrowing more money or reduce dividends to realise these objectives. 5. Other tell-tale signs of increasing borrowings are the fall in working capital from £53m to £37m, a five-year low. 6. Expect higher depreciation charges in the future, similar to £30m-£35m. It is currently at £22.4m. For the detailed analysis and charts, click http://bit.ly/2ueBheN

The half-year results came in as expected with profits growing thanks to the recent two big acquisitions. However, if analysts forecast is right for 2017, it means trailing adjusted P/E of 29 times. In 2018, adjusted EPS rises by 14.4 pence, a 6% increase, giving a 2-year trailing P/E of 27.5 times. The average P/E in the last 11 years is 18 times with the lows at 8 times, during the financial crisis. If you want to read my analysis on RWS Holding and why this company is a best-kept secret for so long, then the link is http://bit.ly/2rM6UQe For those long-term holders, this stock is a hold because of its attractive dividends. BTW, if you held this stock for 11 years, your yield on costs would have risen from 2.8% to 13.54% and the capital appreciation is equivalent to a 10-bagger!

One misconception investors or analysts think is the company paying off its debts. (the latest results show restatement) In reality, it is a little more complex. The traditional net debt measure saw Norcros it tumbled from £155m in 2005 to £23.2m. The more hardworking investor would measure net debt the following way: On the Debit side: - Cash, trade receivables and pension surplus. On the credit side: - Total debt, finance lease, trade payables and pension deficit. On that basis, Norcros saw net debt decreased from £150.8m to £99.8m. Here is the chart comparing both net debts: http://bit.ly/2tl18S6 Here are four more factors why investors are shunning Norcros here: http://bit.ly/2szfSQl

On a technical basis, the set-up is there for it to jump! So, it wouldn't surprise me if it goes up by 60 to 70 pence, BUT the fundamentals are weak. http://bit.ly/StIvesarticle (scroll down to see the technical charts)

Trifast is a global solution business that manufactures fasteners. It operates in 27 countries and has the logistics to send goods to over 60 countries. Lately, business has been good and will continue for this year with analysts forecasting 25% return. However, Trifast’s share price have risen by 35%, meaning valuation is priced in. Trifast is prone to the business cycle. During the financial crisis, revenue fell from £130m in 2007 to £84m in 2010, before the long road to recovery. Meanwhile, operating profits fell from £7m to an operating loss of £10m. http://bit.ly/2teLyqV Looking at the share price of Trifast, there are three scenarios, with the likelihood coming true: Best-Case Scenario; - The shares will continue rising in the next 12 months unabated. The forecast is between £2.50 to £2.80 per share. (Probability outcome: 20%) Based-Case Scenario; - The share price will consolidate in a range of between £1.90 to £2.30 per share in the next 12 months. (Probability outcome: 40%) Worst-Case Scenario; - Shares could fall back to £1.50 or below in the next 12 months. (Probability outcome: 40%)

Didn’t expect Molins to pull off this disposal, but what did we expect when the shares have been undervalued for so long! The last time I posted, I said the company needed to invest in their ageing assets. Now, they won’t need to invest as much. Instead, they will have a lot more cash at hand. Before the disposal, Molin's enterprise value was £18m, now it is 25% higher! Let’s say they invest £8m, that would leave them with £28m-£30m in the bank. Regarding, their pension schemes, shouldn’t the deficit come down if interest rate or UK Gilts and US Bonds start to rise? Well, that depends on what’s in the composition of Molin's pension assets. For those who haven’t read my March post, here is a reminder link: http://bit.ly/2mwmyrh Oh, BTW, with this disposal, I expect the shares to trade around £1.20 per share or higher, giving a market value of £25m. Think about it, if their Tobacco division has similar fundamentals to their packaging division, shouldn’t that be worth at least £20m in a liquidation! But, I need to do further research, before coming to a full conclusion.

This 30-year old “extraordinary designer label” has delivered an average of 17% shareholder returns, since listing in 1997, as the shares rose from £1 to £24. By achieving so much growth for so long, does that mean Ted Baker will enter into the maturity stage of their business cycle? Here are some interesting facts for you to decide: 1. Sales growth for 2018 and 2019 will be 11%, this is below 15-year average of 15.4%; 2. Contradictory, diluted EPS is forecast to grow by 14% in 2018 and 2019, which is similar to its 15-year average; 3. Since 2002, the return on total capital has slowed from 50% to 18%. It could mean that earnings growth may rely on borrowings; 4. And speaking of debt, the total debt to net income has risen from 0.5 times to 2.5 times in six years. Where will the shares go from here? I devised three paths on which Ted Baker’s shares can go, and these are: Best-Case Scenario: After the June results, Ted Baker will resume its uptrend and make new highs – 25% probability. Base-Case Scenario: Ted Baker will make an interim low (around £20), before recovering – 45% probability. Worse-Case Scenario: Ted Baker’s shares could fall below £16 per share, due to high inflation and the business cycle turning downwards. – 30% probability. Hope this is informative, and if you want more analysis, then visit here free of charge. http://bit.ly/2szLiDt

WH Smiths (unlike Woolworths) have turned their business around when others have gone bust. And in the last ten years they achieved the following: A. They saw operating margins increase by 3-fold (from 3.3% to 11%). It helped to boost operating profits from £47m to £133m. B. It manages to maintain free cash flow to operating cash flow at 70%, this plays a crucial in dividends and share buybacks. C. The number of shares outstanding fell from 183m to 112m, which helped boost the share price by an extra £6 per share. D. Using EV/EBIT ratio, it stands at 13 times, which is twice their normal average. One big reason for Smiths success is down to its travel division. Rail has enjoyed their revival, see chart: http://bit.ly/2sq3Chh Air travel has been going from strength to strength, see here: http://bit.ly/2rHhesl However, there some concerns and one big factor is the decline of its inventory turnover from 5.7x to 3.45x. That leads to longer holding period. But the major findings from Smiths is the bizarre retail coverage of its high-street division. That division saw revenue declined from £1.1bn to £630m in the past decade. But, it's “Sq. ft.” coverage is hovering at 2.8m, slightly lower than 3m (2006). While, at the same time, its store numbers rose from 543 to 612. To me, Smiths valuation is high. And with analysts pencilling in £1.05 per share in earnings for 2017 and £1.09 per share for 2018. The earnings per share growth are small if we factor in share buybacks. If enjoy these facts, why not see it in chart form and with added explanation. http://bit.ly/2rnbuRr

Final Results Comparing 2016 and 2017 by analysing it separately. I spot the one misleading discrepancy, that is the head count. In 2016, the head count was 777 and today’s headcount comes to 975. So, how is it an increase of 135 staff? Should it be 198 staff? Kainos was a little sneaky by including contractor employees numbers this year but wasn’t last year. Results Shares are currently down 7% as I am giving you my thoughts. Revenue came in at £83.5m which is lower than my forecast of £102m (based on the change in headcount). Meanwhile, operating profits came in softer at £13.2m, which is way below my estimate of £20m. Also, this means operating margins have declined. The operating cash flow was helped by an increase in £3m payables and zero increase in receivables. The positive note is the increase in the cash balance to £23.7m, that was due to lower dividends. Total dividends payout came to £7.2m, which is 2.2% yield. P.S. I know they increased their dividends by 5% this year. However, Kainos was paying out £13m in dividends to shareholders in 2016. Overall, the results tell me the company is fairly valued.

http://www.*************.com/views/29297/1spatial-disappointing-results-as-expected-but-more-recent-trading-encourages-buy

Looking at PayPoint, you can’t help, but feel a little suspicious about their recent activities. One of them are the disposals of their online and mobile services. At the same time, they released their Epos platform for the first time in 12 years. These disposals would help to mitigate the costs of manufacturing, as retail agents don’t have to pay upfront, but in milestones. Profits are expected to return to normal when they report their results tomorrow with analysts expecting earnings to come in at 63 pence per share. That gives it a forward-P/E ratio of 15 times. Ultimately, the increase in profit margins are due to paying less commission to retail agents. Will that affect margins going forward? Or, does the agents have the power to voice their concerns? For the full PayPoint analysis, http://bit.ly/2rPljrb

1Spatial closing in on 3p, after kitchen-sinking its balance sheet with losses of £15m. Even without the kitchen sinking, 1Spatial would make a loss of £4m-£5m. The main problem is the high costs of hiring talent., it is costing them £65k per head. Also, admin costs account for over 50% of total costs. I did some research last week, here http://bit.ly/2rb0x7Q In it, I stated 3 scenarios, they are: Best-Case Scenario; - I give a 20% chance for 1 Spatial to produce a £2m operating profit, which would help the share price to rocket up to 6 pence. Normal-Case Scenario; - I give a 30% probability for the company to be cash neutral meaning it makes enough to cover capex and acquisitions. That imply a fair valuation on today’s market value. Worst-Case Scenario; - 50/50 odds for the firm to raise more cash, while it continues to make losses for shareholders. The amount of financing is unclear, but a share price of 3 pence or lower is a real outcome. The worst-case is becoming apparent because cash balance fell to £1.3m.

In their latest trading update, they mentioned that growth is in-line with market expectation without giving too much away. But they did let slip one thing. That is the recruitment of 216 addition staff since last year, which is an equivalent of a 25% increase. From my research, I have evaluated the revenue per staff growing from £81k to £104k in three years. Similarly, profit per staff rose from £10k to £19k. So, using conservative estimates of £105,000 sales per staff and £20k profit per staff, then my forecast for Kainos Group’s 2017 is: A. An approximate revenue of £102m from £76.6m; B. And operating profit close to £20m from £14.2m. These are impressive estimates and we will see by the end of this month. For more evaluation of Kainos Group business, please click the link here: http://bit.ly/2qAFH0S

Dignity is one of the biggest funeral providers in the UK. I like the company’s fundamentals (given death is a sure thing), and you wouldn’t be surprised if I told you that ROCE ave. 15% and operating cash margins at 30%. If you have an interest in this company, then check out 10 important things to understand about this funeral provider. http://bit.ly/2qwBKKI Did you know there are 500,000+ deaths in Great Britain each year for the past 15 years? Representing less than 1% of the population.

1Spatial is a phoenix rising from the ashes with its extraordinary sales growth. But the problem is it never made a penny in profit for shareholders. One obvious reason with most “techies” is the cost of hiring to find talent proves expensive. Although I regard the firm ability to find new businesses, it’s an employee-base business. Think of Premier League Football where the players get all the dough, but leaves the club (vis-à-vis Billionaires owners) with the losses. For more graphic and interesting explanation, here is the post: http://bit.ly/2rb0x7Q

Down 40% in a matter of days. Is this a correction or an overvaluation?