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Looking through Greene King the second time around, here are the following important points shareholders and new investors should take to heart: Starting with the good points -The stock is 20%-30% undervalued based on a range of valuation metrics, which takes into account the latest trading update. -Despite, rising total borrowings to £2.5bn. On a per-share basis, debt fell from £14 in 2005 to £8 today. Meanwhile, the share price is down from £6.50 to £5.50. Making the stock an undervalue investment play. -Greene King controls £3.2bn of freehold properties. If you minus the net borrowings, the excess properties are around £1.1bn or 64% of market capitalisation. Now, onto the bad points -Commercial properties prices have continued to struggle and despite two years of growth, it remains below levels last seen in 2000. That’s because of the interest in online shopping and the closures of bricks and mortar stores. -Their brewing ale brands division is facing growing competition as profit margin fell from 20% to 15% in a decade. Putting it all together. Share price forecast On the technical charts, the sentiment is seriously negative. The indicators are making lower lows in the RSI and MACD. This could send the shares falling towards £5. But that represents immediate value, as long as earnings don’t collapse (30% or more). Personally, I’m pencilling in a fall of 10% in adjusted earnings. However, this time next year, shares in Greene King could rise to £6.50 per share. Given the historical performances of Greene King, this has a 70% chance of happening. But the key is to wait for another three months to see if the technical indicators change direction. Thanks for reading and make sure to comment on my blog post below, if you have specific questions. This is because the forums are very active and I don’t have the time to scroll through several pages. Although any answers I will re-post on the forum if it proves helpful to shareholders. My full post with charts and explanations: http://bit.ly/2wDJbzg

Wow, this one colossal company is a story of two halves. One is the obvious undervaluation when investors see manageable debt levels, stable profits (despite, tough competition from AO World and Argos), and improvement in asset utilisation. On the other hand, you discover that management has put a huge value from this merger which resulted in overstating their assets by £1.768bn (mainly goodwill and intangibles). From a market viewpoint, the reduced profits of £100m still present a dirt-cheap valuation, such as the EBIT yield at 13% and the Earnings Power Value showing a 37% discount to the current share price. Using technical analysis, Dixons ****hone’s share price is near their lows. For some reasons, the share price correlates well with their technical indicators in MACD and RSI. Look at the monthly chart for timing your entry. Here is the comparison between their weekly daily chart (http://bit.ly/2h4C5y1) and monthly chart (http://bit.ly/2vWaeq1) For a full explanation, calculations and charts click on the link: http://bit.ly/2f94UfI P.S. If you like this post, remember to subscribe for more exciting stock analysis or browse my blog for other companies I have covered.

Some are bearish and some are bullish. I am cautiously bearish but remain bullish for the future. The Restaurant Group has some good attribute going for them, these are: A great track record on profitability growth. In 12 years, it has generated cumulative free cash flow of £250m or £21m per year. Today, it FCF is £40m, a yield of 5%. Freehold properties of £110m account for 17% of market cap. Now, it accounts for 20% given the share price decline. No pension deficits or schemes, along with manageable debt level (6% of Mkt. cap.), although low debt is prevalent in this industry. However, the sector is under pressure because of the slowdown in consumer spending, spending habits, food inflation and devaluation of the British Pound, also wage pressure makes this the perfect storm of high input costs = pressure on margins. Despite my cautious bullishness. 15 analysts are forecasting adjusted EPS of 22 pence, down from 30 pence that give it a perspective PE of 15. Since EPS is falling, a low multiple PE should be attached (Max. 10X), which is why I give a 65% chance for the shares to head towards £2.20, before making a sustainable recovery. For more, click http://bit.ly/2xhfx7D

TW is propping this stock up.

To understand the car dealership market, you need to know what driving the sector. The last recession caused oversupply on the manufacturing side, so car subsidy schemes have helped stimulate demand. The biggest change to car financing is the PCP financing model, where owners no longer own cars but lease it for two to three years. They pay for the depreciation of the car rather than the full price. Afterwards, the owners could pay the remaining balance or sign another PCP financing for another car. This is called the PCP finance model. The problem is the shift from oversupply in manufacturing to over supplying the retail side. As long as demand keeps rising there are buyers to be found. Now, SMMT is forecasting the UK new car sales to fall for the first time in four years by 5% in 2017. In 2018, this will decline by 3%. Within two years, the demand for cars would have fallen by 10% in total. Forecast That will hit car dealers like Vertu and Lookers because they rely on volume and price. So, my analysis for Vertu Motors is it will trade around 35 pence in the next 12 months. For the breakdown of calculation and detail analysis on my share price prediction, click here: http://bit.ly/2v74wjY

To understand the car dealership market, you need to know what driving the sector. The last recession caused oversupply on the manufacturing side, so car subsidy schemes have helped stimulate demand. The biggest change to car financing is the PCP financing model, where owners no longer own cars but lease it for two to three years. They pay for the depreciation of the car rather than the full price. Afterwards, the owners could pay the remaining balance or sign another PCP financing for another car. This is called the PCP finance model. The problem is the shift from oversupply in manufacturing to over supplying the retail side. As long as demand keeps rising there are buyers to be found. Now, SMMT is forecasting the UK new car sales to fall for the first time in four years by 5% in 2017. In 2018, this will decline by 3%. Within two years, the demand for cars would have fallen by 10% in total. Forecast That will hit car dealers like Vertu and Lookers because they rely on volume and price. So, my analysis for Lookers is it will trade around 80 pence in the next 12 months. For the breakdown of calculation and detail analysis on my share price prediction, click here: http://bit.ly/2v74wjY

How much will Lookers fetch in the market? The market value is £425m and the enterprise value is £559m. But, how much will buyers pay for the company in the market? One way is to assess how much Lookers has to pay for past acquisitions. Use info from Warwick Holdings Limited (acquired by Lookers in Nov. 2016) there is two possible valuation: Price to sales = £776.72m; Price to net assets = £701.7m. This is a 20% discount to enterprise value. Details of calculations are found here: http://bit.ly/2w4ENgo

On car dealerships, here are a few things to keep in mind: 1. Operating margins are razor-thin (typically 1%-2%), therefore a 1% drop can reduce profits by 50%. 2. This is one reason the car dealers buying all these franchises, which is to contain a sudden drop in earnings. 3. Keep an eye on inventory level because cars lose 15%-30% of their value in one year. For both Vertu and Lookers, their inventory period is around 80 days. 4. The good news is car dealership has huge property backing, so dispose of subsidiaries will raise a lot of cash, when borrowing tighten. 5. Both Lookers and Vertu, the more post-tax earnings produced, the more negative the free cash flow gets generated. Here is Lookers table: http://bit.ly/2vHCi0Y 6. However, positive free cash flow is possible if capex + acquisition is at 2 times depreciation, but not at the current 5 to 6 times level. For a more board assessment, click http://bit.ly/2x3Rrcs

The following is not an update on Lookers RNS! On car dealerships, here are a few things to keep in mind: 1. Operating margins are razor-thin (typically 1%-2%), therefore a 1% drop can reduce profits by 50%. 2. This is one reason the car dealers buying all these franchises, which is to contain a sudden drop in earnings. 3. Keep an eye on inventory level because cars lose 15%-30% of their value in one year. For both Vertu and Lookers, their inventory period is around 80 days. 4. The good news is car dealership has huge property backing, so dispose of subsidiaries will raise a lot of cash, when borrowing tighten. 5. Both Lookers and Vertu, the more post-tax earnings produced, the more negative the free cash flow gets generated. Here is Lookers table: http://bit.ly/2vHCi0Y 6. However, positive free cash flow is possible if capex + acquisition is at 2 times depreciation, but not at the current 5 to 6 times level. For a more board assessment, click http://bit.ly/2x3Rrcs

Both Acacia and the Tanzania government needs to be investigated for market manipulation because quite frankly this is the most fantasised RNS I have read of all time. It wouldn't surprise me if the Tanzania government retract this statement saying it is all a mistake and then the shares recovered quickly!!! Those who at the top have lost money if they sold and the new buyers at this level say thank you very much!!

After three horrible years, I see the deleveraging process is underway as they reduce operating leases via disposals. Still, the company hasn’t addressed their pension deficits and is n’t restoring their dividends anytime soon. With the share price being down by 70% and the kitchen-sinking of their assets, is this the time to buy? If business return back to normal, then Tesco can revalue their Assets to boost accounting profits (I calculate they have at least £3bn to play with). However, using the Earnings Power per share (championed by Phil Oakley), Tesco current share price is at a 63% premium to their fundamentals. But more concerning is the threat from Aldi and Lidl. After gaining a combined 7.3% of market share in the previous decade. They could take more of the pie in the next decade unless UK consumers abandon them. So, if we assume Aldi grows at 6% and Lidl at 5%, then ten years later, you would see a combined market share of 20.9%. For more analysis on Tesco against rivals and details of their fundamentals, then click http://bit.ly/2vxej3m

Looking through Sainsbury’s business, it has solid earnings, a decent cash cycle and is deleveraging their balance sheet. But there are setbacks, that includes Growing operating lease; Higher rental expenses as % of sales; Negative cumulative free cash flow since 2006. Overall the shares are fairly valued. With the rise of Aldi and Lidl, Sainsbury’s has maintained their market share and regained their second spot from Asda. But, with Aldi and Lidl, expected to gain a further 9% to 13% of the UK Grocery market in the next decade, would Sainsbury continue to survive? For more analysis of Sainsbury’s and rivals, along with the calculation of how Aldi and Lidl will gain this market share, click http://bit.ly/2vxej3m

Having done some research there are some interesting patterns emerging from Morrisons. Morrisons saw improving earnings in the last three years, most are down to selling and leasing back properties this process contributed £280m to earnings when compared to £924m in underlying earnings. The company still own properties and has a low operating lease and rental expenses in comparisons with Sainsbury’s and Tesco. Operationally I see two weaknesses. First, net book value of fixtures and equipment aren’t written off in the balance sheet, despite £1.5bn original costs write down. It distorts the shareholder equity by £300m. Second, is average payables are at their highest of 50 days and higher than both Tesco and Sainsbury’s of 34 days and 38 days. Those who remember Tesco accounting scandal would know is delaying to suppliers were the main accusation. Elephant in the Room The takeover rumour is possible and the likely candidate is Amazon because of their partnership to supplying Amazon Fresh. That’s why the share price rose by 70%. For more analysis on Morrisons, especially its comparison to rivals and valuation, click http://bit.ly/2vxej3m

Thanks for the thoughts people

As the owner of 6,500 shares in OPTI back in 2014, I made a decent "unrealized" capital gains. There are some signs of ramping from management, due in part of RNS releases that updates investors of progress, but do not have a material effect on the share price. On the one hand, I get that management wants to engage investors and keep them interested. On the other hand, I know these scientific development take a lot longer than people think, therefore they need further funding down the line. I don't know if OPTI will succeed or not, but it is pretty damn obvious that if OPTI is the next big thing, every pharma companies would bid the shares up if they know about the reputation of the company's ceo and the science behind OPTI (by now!). So, I'm a little worry that management is trying to push expectations forward (string investors along) knowing the mission would take longer to accomplish. i.e. Just last year, the ceo said they had lots of potential companies line-up to integrate OPTI technology into their products, so hasn't these companies bought into OPTI shares?

Maginty, try this link http://walbrockresearch.com/9-red-flags-rm2-international-investors-question/

Thanks!

The strategy was to sell the pallets, but since it costs $120 each or £95, buyers fell in 2016 from £3.7m (2015) in sales to £400k. Now, they think 91% of all pallets will get rented out at $20 per year or £16.

Having wasted hundreds of millions of pounds in pursuing the wrong strategy, the company will require hundreds of millions of pounds to fulfil contract agreements on their new strategy. Won’t filling my boots with RM2 anytime soon. There are 9 red flags I spotted of RM2, which you can read HERE: - http://bit.ly/2uuOgd9 Also, included are some strategies I laid out if you think there is a recovery.

Read that somewhere in the Japan Time. I don't know how much their Japan business is contributing to their Asian operation, which BTW accounts for 20% of group sales. Here's the article on Japan ID: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/01/04/national/year-new-system-japans-number-id-cards-not-catching/#.WVYYLIQrKUk