Member Info for Orangetree

I feel the business lack of competitive advantage in a very competitive sector makes it a unviable proposition for investors. That�s because of several things investors should be cautious about: 1). High Goodwill value; - it could destroy the venerable �37m market valuation. 2). The mystery behind reallocating 1m Euros of receivables to Non-current assets. The shares have risks attached, but people interested need to do more research. For full analysis of Artilium and other companies� result analysis, click http://bit.ly/2xz64VU

Lok n Store depends heavily on property revaluation to keep the share price high. Earnings and revenue are secondary yardsticks. Right now, the market capitalisation has risen faster than property putting valuation on the high side. With a lower property revaluation, despite having more property in their portfolio, I feel the shares have raced ahead of a little. For full analysis of Lok n Store and other companies� result analysis, click http://bit.ly/2xz64VU

Investors have failed to identify a crucial key data in 2016�s annual results that is client numbers! See table: http://bit.ly/2yV9rdg They were caught off guard by the name change, robust sales and profit growth, and, especially the announcement of their special dividend of 26 pence! Recent shareholders are now licking their wounds, and long-term investors are seeing a huge loss in unrealized capital gains! For full analysis and charts of System1, click http://bit.ly/2hdEk2H

The share price is low because of their high debts along with debtors and creditors mismatch. I view this share speculatively, but uniquely. What I mean is if OPG Power Venture manage to reduce debt by �30m to �40m each year. Then I can see the share price appreciate by 20% each year. The enterprise value remains the same for each year. The above case scenario is if OPG maintains their business size for three to four years. This would be a good recovery play, however, given the pessimistic view on Asian companies, I feel the bad rep. outweighs any opportunity. Therefore, I won�t be recommending this share a buy, until some in-depth research is done on the company. For full analysis of OPG Power Venture and other companies� result analysis, click http://bit.ly/2li7P8i

The fall in earnings is priced in. But with continuing uncertainty and a growing risk of their dividend getting cut. I see them as reasons to remain cautious. But Debenhams is trying to change their business model for the new age and become more online and fewer bricks and mortar. Right now, the share price is fairly value, at best. For full analysis of Debenhams and other companies� result analysis, click http://bit.ly/2li7P8i

I think there is some value in the short-term because of future asset disposal which would reduce their net borrowing further and maintain 10% dividend yield (at least for another year or two). And after 2019, the company is likely to experience a terminal decline. The newspaper distribution business will be replaced by digital, as the readers form of choice. As to the share price, I can see it appreciate 20%-30% at best, due to maintaining dividends for two years, but afterwards, Connect Group will become a relic of the past. P.S. Long-term shareholders should avoid this stock. For full analysis of Connect Group and other companies� result analysis, click http://bit.ly/2li7P8i I did an analysis on WH Smith when they released their result http://bit.ly/2yiGpUt

Some people may not like my opinion. But I think the market has raced ahead of expectations. Although sales look impressive, the weak profit generation, despite improved inventory management and low capex. Also, brokers� forecast of 18 EPS by 2020 means forward-PER is 45 times. All this led to my conclusion the stock correcting by 30%. For my free full analysis on Gear4music and other companies� analysis, click http://bit.ly/2yHn5RH

With sales rising at double-digits and profits recovering I get feeling this is a recovery stock. Along with a new Harry Potter novel for next year and cash balance building up, then I won�t be surprise if the shares were to recover to �2.50. But, as always DYOR. For my free full analysis on Bloomsbury and other companies� analysis, click http://bit.ly/2yHn5RH

Share price maybe down 16%, but the market is still valuing the business highly. Here�s why: Investors may not realise this, but between 2000 and 2004, their average market capitalisation was �50m when average profit was �10.5m. Contrast this to the past four years, their average market capitalisation is �230m with an average profit of �3.5m. So, between 2000-04, Dialight average PER is 5 times, whereas 2012-2016 gives a PER of 75 times. For more and other companies� analysis, click http://bit.ly/2z1DYXs

Good at expanding their production and producing diamonds. For me, there is too much capex requirements and not enough cash inflow. Furthermore, rising net debt could spiral out of control and add it geopolitical risks gives it inconsistent performance. So, not a company I like to invest. For more and other companies� analysis, click http://bit.ly/2z1DYXs

Despite the recovery in the Baltic Dry Index, their interim results are disappointing. Assessing the long-run, sees Braemar failing to increase their margins, while productivity per staff is collapsing. For more and other companies� analysis, click http://bit.ly/2z1DYXs

I don�t feel comfortable investing in this company because of their previous commercial failure with lung cancer detection kit. The money raised since 2012 to support operations total �25m, while sales amount to �5m. Since listing it raised �17.5m, and they have �6.5m in the bank. The level of cash burn is high. For the full detail analysis, click http://bit.ly/2inR7TE

IWG didn�t collapse by 30% because of slightly lower market expectation on operating profits of �165m. It fell because, despite lower overall sales demand, management decided to forge ahead with their big spending. This leads to higher operating expenses and fears of even lower operating profit. For more about IWG capital employed trends, valuation and comparison with homebuilders, click http://bit.ly/2yTDram

Apart from sales and profits collapsing, this firm is too volatile for me to invest because of inconsistent returns. For other companies� result, click http://bit.ly/2yTDram

The shares have performed well with the companying disposing assets and doing sales and leaseback on their aircrafts. This helps reduce debt, but lifts operating expenses. I think the Stobart Group is fairly valued. For more on Stobart and other companies, click http://bit.ly/2yTDram

The company is deteriorating fast and now management is negotiating for its survival. I feel it needs to raise money to prevent speculation of their changing status as a going concern company. For further commentary, please click http://bit.ly/2yTDram

Despite the rise in today�s share price, Genedrive�s results are poor. Revenue missed their �7m forecast and net losses widened to �6.4m, greater than their sales of �5.8m. The problems facing this diagnostic business is two-fold: -One R&D expenses account for 90% of group sales (normally you would expect 20%). Also, it grows larger as sales increase. -Two staff costs represent half of sales. Also, 40% of group sales is reliance on grant funding which is a volatile source of income. But, right now it is helping to mask internal sales weakness within the business. Those who participate in last year placing at 80p is down by 55%. For more Genedrive analysis and other analysis on companies� results, click http://bit.ly/2hLViFb

A great business with zero liabilities on their balance sheet which is a rare trait to have. It speaks volume to their competitive advantage. There is one thing that would interest you. How many clients do they have in total? Average revenue per user rose to �715 per month from �575. Annual revenue per user totals �8,480. With revenue at �32m, divide this by �8,480 gives Dotdigital 3,773 clients. This year they added over 550 clients. I don�t know much about the business, so can�t give an opinion of their valuation. For more analysis on ASOS and Genedrive results, please click http://bit.ly/2hLViFb

ASOS continued sales growth see the retailer�s profit jumped by 145%. However, the role was reversed when positive free cash flow of �52m in 2016 turned into a negative �14m. This marks the end of their continuous cash build-up. The company did say positive FCF will return in 2019 as it winds down their capital expenditure programme as they increase capacity large enough to accommodate group sales of �4bn. But, given their robust sales growth rate, they will probably return to high capex spending sooner rather than later. For more commentary on ASOS analysis and other companies� commentary, then click http://bit.ly/2hLViFb

Another good performance from Bioventix. Here is my analysis: Breakdown of results Results came in better than forecasted at �7.24m vs. �7.1m. Most of their sales come from royalty and license fee (�5.3m) with R&D and product revenue making up the rest. Pre-tax profit increased to �5.7m, compared to �4.2m giving the business a high margin in the 70s. The biggest surprise is the dividend announcement of a second interim dividend of 31p and a special dividend of 40p. Balance sheet A great balance sheet with cash making up 60% of total assets. No debt and no pension deficit. Cash Flow The balance sheet is neat with high levels of cash inflows and the only cash outflow is basically rewarding shareholders. Talking of dividends, this paid the company is paying 91p vs. 62.5p (including the special) Including the special, the yield climbs over 3%. But what impressed me the most is the 50% dividend growth helped by the special dividend increasing 100%. Is Bioventix fully-priced in? When you see revenue of �7.2m vs. the market cap. of �142m it looks pricey. And, despite EPS Growth averaging circa. 26% (which is typical of a sustainable rate for a small business) the market has raced ahead of itself. Market metrics such as: EV/EBIT = 27 times, now down to 24 times, the 6-year average is 13 times. PE = 40.7 times, now down to 29 times, the 6-year average is 19 times. PB = 17.3 times, now down to 14.1 times, the 6-year average is 7.3 times. PS = 25.8 times, now down to 19.7 times, the 6-year average is 10 times. On the flip-side: If you are a L-T investor, then you thinking five or ten years ahead. My advice is if Bioventix can sustain their business model, then we can make a hypothetical forecast. Assuming net profit grow by 20% for the next five years, then on current valuation, then PE comes to 11 times. And if the company keeps their current PE ratio of 29 times, you are looking at a share price of circa �70 per share! Things to be cautious Looking at Bioventix business and financials, I get the sense of feeling that their technology is reliance on a few talented staff (the company employs 15 people). So, staff safety and morale is paramount to Bioventix continuous success. Another is the entry of new competitors. Given the low cost of entry (all you need is the talent), then there is no guarantee of success if another business develops a superior product. Final Thoughts It reminds me of Rightmove with their high operating margin and low asset maintenance costs. Unlike Rightmove, they have vulnerabilities because the probability of staff accident can be fatal to future business success or a competitor muscling in (low cost of entry). So, in many ways they are competitive, but with a few speculative features lingering about. I think �20 per share or 21-times PE is good value.