Member Info for onedaysoonish

McQ. Many thanks buddy. Just say what I think. KK, thanks for the link. Food for thought!

GLA

I suspect he might dismantle more than the tree house? I honestly think he still believes he can somehow salvage this. If he's allowed to hang on until October who knows what he can do? His speech yesterday was, IMO, that of a man still in denial. If he was untrustworthy on Wednesday then he will remain so going forward so why trust him with the helm?

If he can't further his aims he can for sure make life difficult for his replacement. He says he won't make any major decisions in his time as caretaker but then again when did he ever tell anyone the truth? The smart play would be to accept the inevitable and go out with some degree of dignity but this is BoJo. This has a way to run yet.

All IMHO GLA

Geopolitical tensions continuing to ramp up with Putin very much on the offensive at the moment. CPC is just one example of that. A good many people told the west Putin was weaponizing energy but nobody wanted to listen while they gorged themselves on cheap oil and gas. We are now paying the price for that! Challenging NATO to beat Russia on the battlefield looks like another attempt to use NATO as an excuse for a 100% Russian mobilisation to further Putin's bigger aims.... or at least to make it look like that's what Putin wants while he pursues other options?

Seems unlikely that Putin will be pushed out of power any time soon and he is being emboldened by the failure of the west to deliver battle changing weapons to Ukraine quickly enough to stop him. Russia now pushing hard on the battle and economic fronts while the west trips over its own political problems and continues to fund Putin's war.

Brave of the Kazakh's to take a stand on this but then again why wouldn't they be on Putin's shopping list at some time in the future? Putin is OK with puppet states but a free thinking western facing sovereign state on his doorstep is probably a no no. To that end it's difficult to see how Kaz can really make the break away from Russia and a new pipeline may be on the agenda but it could be years away yet?

So what next? I have no idea if I'm honest. The situation is complex and there are a lot of balls in play. Putin's economic leverage is to gradually choke off energy supplies to the west from Russia (and any other source he can influence) and food supplies to the developing world as and when he can get his hands on other income streams to keep his war machine running. Enter China, India and a few others who are filing their boots and Putin's coffers.

I suspect that any negotiated peace would be temporary as many believe Putin's aims go beyond the Donbass and the rest of Ukraine. Kaz oil has become a small but significant chess piece in this growing conflict. A hot war in Ukraine is only a part of an escalating global economic conflict. No easy fix here and lots of very tough decisions still to come.

For our CASP of course the problems are far simpler. Keep pumping oil, keep developing the production capacity and keep dodging the geopolitical bullets.

All IMHO GLA

One of my rants here was because they turned a healthy 2021 operating profit into a bottom line loss (see 2021 results). Les Wood fell on his sword (stepped down) so onward to 22 and I'm expecting them to deliver something far better this year. If Kenya comes good it's happy days but there is something north of 200M to write down if it doesn't come off (again the exact number is shown in the results). Every time we think the shorter's are going to leave Tullow alone they wade in and fill their boots. I wouldn't be here if I didn't think the shares represent value but it's tough here at the moment. calling the bottom is a mugs game but I'm going to hold and stay patient.

All IMHO GLA

And you would have to suspect that the delay in his going is a result of a deal done to allow him to stay in power for longer than May? So who next???

DM, I agree. North of 3.8p this was a hold in my head but at 3.5p there is money to be made. Yes we are suffering contagion from yet more geopolitical fall out but we've been here before and it's all part of being invested in a business operating in a part of the world that 2022 has not been kind to. According to Clive we are due 141 news in the not too distant and this slippery pig is, if nothing else, a survivor.

All IMHO

Welcome to CASP! 2022 has been brutal and it's largely been for geopolitical reasons. The fundamentals here have been improving but this has been trumped by Kazakh unrest and Putin's war. This mornings grief is because a Russian court have decided to issue a 30 day closure order on the CPC pipeline. CASP claim they don't use the CPC but we still suffer contagion and further risk of backlash from Putin against Kaz following a very public lack of support for his war. None of this is going to resolve itself quickly so it's a case of riding it out or bailing. For me this is still a hold.

All IMHO GL

Yep. I think back then we all believed that success at A5 would be the first of many for the deeps. Had that been the case, where might we be by now? Of course it was always a punt rather than a done deal and the deeps are not the only show in town here as recent success has demonstrated. There's a old RNS somewhere telling us about a planned shallow drilling campaign that was scheduled for 2020. Of course nobody knew at that stage what would happen with COVID and how near the brink that would take us. Back into the 3's right now which, given that this is a business with real fundamentals these days, looks like value to me. No news is brutal here and bad news is worse.

CASP still have a problem convincing investors to leave their money here and can we blame them? The halo effect of the recent drilling success and KEBCO has evaporated and it feels like we are back to sub 2KBOPD and broken promises. What does the business need to do to convince people that this is anything other than a quick 10-20% return on positive news? Let's start with clear, accurate and honest communication, delivering what has been promised when it was promised and establishing a level of credibility that people see as investable.

Oh how things have changed since the days of the A5 RNS. It was great news followed by damaging back peddling and the repeated hope and failure that has characterised the deep programme since. The biggest change since those days has been the loss of confidence with investors in the management and the impact this has had on the SP. The irony is that the business fundamentals are in far better shape than they were when the SP was trading in the 10-12p range. We need to regain trust and confidence and not sit here hoping for good news while waiting for the next punch in the nads.

All IMHO. GLA

Blimey guys, I would say that this board is one of the better and more civil LSE boards. Some damn good posters on here with well researched and insightful posts. Try the Lloyds board if you want to see what it can descend into! Let's get FK back if we want to see some gold standard RaRa.

GLA

Many thanks P, an interesting post. I don't think we can discount any possibilities at the moment. Russian (Urals) oil is already selling at a $30-35 discount to Brent and with the Kazakh's re-branding their oil as KEBCO that delta might increase even further? Any war is expensive and while the West make lots of supportive noise about what they are doing for Ukraine the reality is that, the EU in particular, is paying more to Russia in hydro-carbon revenues than they are giving Ukraine in support and that Russian Gas is probably a more significant revenue stream from the EU than oil?

This war looks to be going to grind on as the West manage the supply of weapons to Ukraine to maintain an overall stalemate and keep the pressure on Russia, it's economy and the patients of it's people. Oil is not really expensive at $1152 (Brent) despite all the noise. The fact is that the West have become used to cheap oil and gas so the impact of the war and its sanctions are having a massive negative impact on Western economies. I guess we can assume that things like a price cap would be modelled before any implementation. Would China and India tow the line and fill their boots or pay what Russia need to keep the taps flowing? Personally I think that a price cap on Russian oil is an interesting idea but in practice it could backfire?

Interesting and dangerous times!

All IMHO GLA

CC, I'd agree with that. This is about shallow field development with a possible bonus from the other opportunities. I have discounted the boat and the deeps and I'm here based on the ongoing increases in production that we are seeing gather momentum.

GLA

Ain't that the truth. A mate of mine works for BT. A top bloke and very well paid. He's anti the strike as he recons the company will use this as a catalyst for another "re-structure" and he doesn't want to lose money. Time will tell I guess? Understandable that people want to see their salaries tracking inflation but is that sustainable? BOE seem to be in the too little too late club? The higher inflation goes the more of this unrest we are likely to see and the less likely a "soft landing" for the economy?

GLA

Always an interesting time. The average EPS predictions I've seen are around 7.72p so here's hoping. It would be nice to see north of £6bn PBT this year (£5.9bn FC) so we could do with a solid Q2. A decent divi wouldn't hurt either. I understand why big corps see buy backs as a longer term benefit for shareholders but I can spend the divi!

All IMHO GLA

Thanks for sharing this KK. As somebody who is sadly used to death by PowerPoint its always interesting to try and sort the wheat from the chaff on these slides. Generally the more cryptic the comment the more you need to challenge it is my experience.

Hidden value in the boat? Oh yes indeedy. So well hidden I can't see it. Go find it Clive! Undervalued on divi yield is quite possible but it will depend on the size of the divi which will, in turn, depend on the size the profit. The market is still buying growth over value IMO so they need to get the balance right. Huge potential from the deeps? Yes but, licence requirements aside, they need to exploit the shallow potential first. M&A? Again its a possibility and it is happening elsewhere in the oil industry particularly among the small/medium players. Perhaps this is a hint that they would actively encourage this sort of opportunity if it enables the present investors to see a return?

The Concert party and other investors have been more than patient here and with Putin doing is best to accelerate the move away from hydro-carbons the window to make this pay is starting to close. I've got potential fatigue here as have many others. I'm still encouraged by what has been delivered over the last 6-7 months on the production front so long may it continue. 141 please Clive!

There seems to be an increasing momentum here towards delivering something for investors, the major investors at least. It's all taken way too long and tomorrows jam is well past it's sell by date so this is very much needed. For us it's about hanging onto the shirt tails of the investors with influence and looking for something that represents a solid return if not the £1/share bonanza that was hyped a few years ago. The slide was obviously aimed at attracting investment but for me this is a hold at the moment. Moving towards a buy if they can continue to exploit their winners?

All of our investment here would have netted a better return had we put it into Shell or BP all those years ago. Let's face it too many people here got burned and have voted with their feet. I'm in the red here as are many others yet the narrative from Clive remains the same. I keep saying this but CASP are drinking in the last chance saloon with many of the investors who have stuck with this roller coaster ride. Lets swap potential, potential, potential for deliver, deliver, deliver and then Clive's slide wont need to be titled investment case as that will speak for itself.

All IMHO GLA

Un, nothing is worse than manflu! Get well soon buddy.

rocket, I'm with BigTC on the drink front. We'd all like to see 40p just don't hold your breath!

Every time I think the comms might be improving....... Given that quarterly divis were muted I had assumed (always dangerous here) that a July divi would be either a H1 22 or a Q2 22 divi? Certainly I was not expecting a FY 21 divi so the loss was not a factor in my thinking. Following the RNS I've no idea about what we might get or when so lets hope it's cleared up at the AGM?

If they want to attract new investors i think clear comms might be something institutional investors would see as even more important than any divi that they might get? Come on Clive, get a grip and clear this up tomorrow.

All IMHO GLA

Flabbs, I think the points you make are in line with the political narrative for the low key rises we have seen so far. I honestly think the UK has forgotten just how brutal the impact from high inflation can be. It's like we are back in the 70's again with industrial action being threatened from different groups, continued rising prices and the press having a field day talking about it all. What of course the politicians don't want to tell us is that the fiscal policies they implemented to get the country through the pandemic now have to be paid for and that is having a big influence on inflation.

The reality of the global drivers for inflation can be seen when we look at countries like Japan where inflation was at 2.1% the last time I looked (May). Of course there are differences but Japan has very few of it's own natural resources so they are far from immune from the economic pressures everyone else is blaming. The BOE seem to be increasingly out of step with other central banks which is T1's point. We all want this to end in a soft landing but looming stagflation looks to be making that less likely. That said you are right to suggest that the supply of cheap money is not the only factor at play and that central bankers get paid big bucks to walk that tightrope. I think the markets now believe the BOE are indulging in too little too late.

All IMHO of course GLA

Well we have the answer! The markets needs to believe that central banks have a handle on this and that's not happening with the BOE at least. The gov claim the bank has autonomy but i'm struggling to believe that the BOE are so out of touch that they think 25 basis point rises are going to make much of an impact on 9.1% inflation unless they are being constrained? Base rate should be 3-4% by now IMO. That's still quite low when looked at over the longer term but is being sold as draconian in the UK. As you have said, B+ (better late than never) for the FED and a big fat "F" for the BOE.

All IMHO of course GLA

nom, Deluded? Absolutely IMO. I'm not sure if Stamer is electable but a big lump of the Tory majority came out of the fact that Corbin was not. I suspect this is a bluff to mask the fact that an increasing number of Boris' own people believe his time may be up. What is for sure is that he won't resign regardless!

All IMHO GLA