Member Info for onedaysoonish

Sounds nice! If It's a curry flavour pot noodle I could go for that. If Kenya comes off I might even plate it up?

We could do with an RNS to clarify the situation as some other oilers have done but I'm with anton. Tullow made a loss in 2021 and while I would be hopeful they are now in the black I don't believe Tullow will have to pay windfall tax under the present rules. And, just to cover off some old ground, hedging is capping our profits on a proportion of output, not causing losses.

No need to convince me of the potential at SY. I thought the licence decision would give the SP a bigger boost than it did. Bit disappointing that the development at SY is not further on but I guess they have to prioritise? POO strong enough to give us a rapid payback on investment there so come on Clive let's go! Even if we developed 1 well there, pumped 600-1000BOPD the potential asset value of that licence would give a boost to the market cap/SP.

I've had my fingers burned here too many times to get starry eyed. The roller coaster is on the up which is great but there are still risks. The potential here is, as it always has been, fantastic but the managements ability to realise that potential is not a given. Back in December I managed to convince myself that CASP had turned a corner but geopolitics rained on that parade. My other oiler is now approaching 70KBOPD and the SP is mid 50's so we have a way to go here. An end to the war in Ukraine would give us a lift even though sanctions are likely to stay in place for years. 10p would be an amazing result based on where we have been so I don't see us getting there in 2022 unless there is some sort of take-over? I'm not sure how the 2021 numbers will shake out nor how the market will view them. POO was still in the doldrums in Q1 last year but the recovery was steady right through to YE.

Dollops of disappointment have been part of the picture here over too many years so while I'm more optimistic than I was following the stinker RNS I'm staying realistic. I'm still not topping up as that seems to be the kiss of death for the SP. One day Rodney I'll make some serious money here!

All IMHO GLA

PV11, Get yourself another broker!

Critical stage in the war again. The Alamo was not a tactical success and the Ukrainians cant afford to let the Russians trap thousand of their best troops in fixed positions that can't be resupplied. If they do it could be a turning point in Russia's favour. They have a battle they can win in the South West and need to play it smart in the Donbass.

All IMHO of course

Well I do trade here albeit I would never describe myself as a day trader. I was busy yesterday and missed my trim level at 4.5p. Doh! Never mind as it's still value here at 4p and more news may not be that far away. I suspect it will retrace to the high 3's which I would suggest is good value? As for the boat, I've made my feelings clear on that here in the past. Supply = 1 Vs Demand = 0. $300M to build again today sounds about right but I doubt anyone wants to do that? The trouble with the Caspian sea is that it can't easily be moved elsewhere which may impact it's potential sale value? It's a slick piece of kit and could be converted I guess so I wouldn't argue with $50-75M as a sale price? I'm not sure about our real NAV but those licences are worth their weight in Gas.

GLA

And around 600M less shares in circulation by 30th Sept if we continue to buy at present prices. Our P/E is still only in the 4's so if the earnings hold up then this is looking like a decent value punt. Please Mr Venkat, please, please, please, no more c*ck-ups!

Some great news at last. 142 at 1400BOPD is double what I thought would be achieved. Shin gets my vote for man of the match. Almost back to pre stinker levels and it's clear that we have been inundated with the day trader brigade. Most will be out by COP today so we should get a clearer picture of underlying SP recovery. I would agree that 5000BOPD looks like under promise and over deliver but hey, this is CASP so we'll wait and see. Clearly nothing built in for 802 in 2022 which is sensible as this is a requirement with a low probability of success. No update on the boat of course but let's enjoy what we have had today. Best news since December.

GLA

Well if it's to be completed by 30th Sept then they are going to be buying something better than £50M of stock per week between now and then.

JJ, yep. I doubt they will be buying back stock at present debt levels but they will keep the option alive with a view to buy backs once the gearing has been reduced.

All IMHO GLA

I'm in the "invest the money in developing shallows" club but as KK says the decision has been made. The issue for me then is the split. How much cash goes to the shareholders Vs how much is reinvested? If we are having a sweep then I'm going with a single 0.1p dividend payment for 2021 with a progressive dividend strategy going forward. If nothing else it marks the transformation from exploration to production and profitability. I'm not so sure the bigger investors they are looking for are going to be swayed by a divi alone? The company needs to be well managed, sustainable and low risk if they want value investors and/or have strong growth potential if they want investors who are prepared to take greater risk. I would suggest CASP are more attractive to the second group? These people do their research and, like us, they are more interested in SP growth than divi's and they want to believe that revenues are reinvested to grow the business and not squandered on bailing out follies like the boat! I will take my divi and thanks very much. I am unlikely to reinvest it and unless it's stellar it wont tempt me into buying more stock so maybe it's not me they are truing to attract?

All IMHO of course. GLA

Spot on. Not much of a windfall when your profit has brackets around it. The gov had already had a windfall in terms of oil company corporation tax. The UK need to make it more attractive for energy companies to invest in the UK to give us all some future energy security.

All IMHO GLA

An interesting post backed up with information and believable estimation which always works for me. The SP here is a casualty of risk and performance and those issues have not gone away. 2022 has been a geopolitical nightmare for CASP and this has resulted in a very real financial impact on the business which is IMO priced in. If the shallow wells presently being developed come good then it will have a positive impact on the business as well as the SP but I'm not expecting much better than a solid shift into the 3's? In percentage terms that's well worth having but it's not in the bag and any failure to deliver these wells will test a new bottom. Like everyone else here I'm looking forward to seeing the 21 numbers. We know how news driven this stock is and you can see some level of anticipation building in the SP as people see news as immanent. I'd like to think this is a no brain'er and it can only go one way but the reality is it's only been going one way for quite some time now so we really need a change of fortune to see some positive, sustained upward movement so here's hoping.

All IMHO GLA

Still find it crazy that oil from the CPC which is now back to circa 90% Kaz in origin is selling at pariah prices? Just have to suck it up and take solace in the fact that even with the discount we are still selling at a profit. The EU are still buying lots of Russian oil and will continue to do so for some time yet. I guess they are paying for oil and gas in Rubles as they haven't been cut off and the Ruble was at a two year high a few days ago? Our media is only marginally less propaganda driven than the Russian equivalent. When a story goes quiet it's getting to be that they just don't want to tell us what is actually happening. I miss RT. Ok, they went full out propaganda after the invasion but at least we got to see the other side of the story as well as getting a view on what the Russian's are seeing. Free speech? Lots of windfall tax noise this week. Don't think we need to worry too much about that at present
All IMHO .... GLA

Somm/Badge, Yep this is a real fear and a definite risk? I asked a mate of mine (Project Manager in Oil) if he's heard anything about the big boys looking at alternate routes out of Kaz. He recons for biggies like Chevron the Urals price is just an accounting change and a potential opportunity. They buy their own oil (and ours?) at Urals prices and convert it to refined products which sell at full price because the percentage of Russian oil in the finished product is low. Shell were outed for doing something similar a few weeks ago so he may have a point. The concern then is it's only the minnows that don't refine that are getting hurt by this.

I think we have to wait and see if the SEC see this as a mistake? CEO's can't bury their heads in the sand. They get the big bucks for being in the hot-seat and they are accountable for what happens within the business even if they themselves are not directly responsible for the issue itself.

I thought his interview a couple of days ago was as good as a very public resignation? The solution to Inflation at 9% is unlikely to be interest rates at 1%. The markets reacted unfavourably to the last rate decision as it flagged that the BOE are still asleep at the wheel. We have printed too much money and the rate increases have been too little too late. All IMHO of course.

Cheers anton, Here's hoping for a positive outcome.

Un, it would be difficult to be much worse! I think it's positive that Clive bothers to respond to PI's questions. Normally a company would just point investors in the direction of the website or the regulatory news service. Urals was $84 this morning when I looked. Good news it they get those shallows up and flowing. I've got another hefty divi coming my way tomorrow so maybe I'll break my self imposed sanction on buying any more CASP?