Member Info for onedaysoonish

Agreed. They have just flogged off a load of shares and we are well into Q2 so crack on! I guess we will find out more in next weeks statement?

I think it may be a closer call than the polls suggest. People don't always tell the pollsters the truth when it comes to more controversial candidates. Trump is the classic example of this. That said it's not the time for voting in a candidate who has ties to Russia...... unless you are in Hungary of course? As for the Dow on Friday..... I wonder who the sanctions are hurting most and the markets don't seem to think the FED has this!

We have been told there are alternate routes but I don't know what they are, nor the cost of using those routes. I would suspect that cost may be close to or more than the currant delta for Urals oil? The world needs be careful not to alienate the "Stans" as a result of sanctions. The last thing the west wants is to push those countries back towards Russia, especially when they need as many alternate sources of oil as they can get. Unwinding a global economy to alienate Russia does not come without it's problems. This is becoming clearer as now Western solidarity seems to be showing cracks. Surely the good people of Germany deserve better than Scholz? Dow dropped almost 1000 points on Friday. You have to wonder about what is impacting who and by how much? Honestly, I don't know what will happen with the CPC or any additional sanctions that might be imposed. I'm waiting to see if the Urals delta reduces when the line is back to full capacity?

Our twin trade seller at it gain this morning with 2 16k sales. Looking late for bedNisa sales?

BB, Totally agree. All sanctions achieve in the longer term is a black market for sanction bypassing. In this case perhaps it’s a red market? China, India and a load of others will make sure Russia gets its technology and sells its oil, albeit at a discount. I’m not sure why the west thinks the battle in Donbas May take months. I think Russia has two weeks to control the Donbas or lose face. Ukraine needs weapons now and they need to make sure their troops there don’t get surrounded. Talk today from Russia about a land bridge to Moldova. This is a distraction as they have no chance of doing this yet. All IMO of course.

Thanks for posting the link Ad. I don't know what the logic for the 1.7p forecast is but I suspect that if you draw trend lines through the Tullow SP over the last 10 or 15 years you would conclude the stock will be zero at some stage? The consensus is far more encouraging but it all comes down to what you believe before you invest. The 21 full year results put us back IMO. They left the door open for some people to question the validity of the recovery plan and conclude that Tullow has not changed it's spots. Tullow have hopefully moved on since then. Les W is no more and the additional un-hedged volume and POO means that, even with hedging, we are about $1.25M per day stronger on the top line than this time last year. The 2021 "cost savings" came from the disposals rather than real efficiencies so lets see if our new CFO can make his presence felt on costs. If Tullow can deliver on it's initiatives then 22 could be a big year for them and give the market confidence the business has really turned a corner. The Kenya JV is the next big milestone so fingers crossed. We are unlikely to find out anything meaningful about this until we get an RNS and these things have a habit of going down to the wire. All IMO of course.

I think, for me at least, the loss of trust is a bigger issue than the parties themselves. It's now about the Tory MP's belief in BJ to win votes at the next general election. If the answer to that after the may elections is no then they will get rid. Lining their pockets and playing politics is what they all do. Democracy just gives us some say in who will pocket most. All IMH, if somewhat cynical O of course.

Fingers crossed. My understanding of the CPC is that under normal flow conditions the line carries 90% Kaz oil and 10% Russian give or take? This has traditionally resulted in a "blend" price a couple of dollars below Brent. Ok, since the damage was reported that mix calculation may have moved to a greater percentage of Russian oil? If and it's a big IF the CPC is moved back to full flow from EO April then a $35 delta for what would be a 10% Russian oil blend looks steep? Let's be honest it would be cheaper for the big boys to pay the Russians to shut down production and move to 100% Kaz oil in the CPC. Sanctions would be unlikely to permit this sort of transaction but it highlights the punitive discount being attached to Russian oil at the moment. In terms of the war, my recollection is that oil was floating around the mid $80's prior to the invasion. Arguably some of this was a result of the tension that built up before but I still think we are worse off now. The crazy thing is that POO increases have not had a direct correlation with CASP SP prior to this but the news that we where "only" netting $70-75/bl has resulted in a tanking.

KK, genuine question but whats the logic behind a 0.6p divi guesstimate? I know we have a pot of money but do you think they will dump it all down in one hit? I thought we might wind up at around 0.1p based on giving us a 3.5%+ yield.

Cheers JK. I'm no technical analyst but your posts are always interesting and usually about right IMO. BARC broke your 146 milestone yesterday so here's hoping for some upward momentum and no doom and gloom in next weeks Q1 statement.

Morning KK, yep, no way the EU can sanction Russian oil and gas at this stage. There maybe a way to sanction oil in short order but gas is a bigger issue. I agree we need to either move away from the CPC /Urals blend and/or see if it improves when Kaz comes fully back on stream? If Clive's aim was to turf out the PI's with his last RNS then mission accomplished. Very quiet here last few days.

No sign that Putin's war will end any time soon. Russia claiming the supply of western arms is extending the conflict while the Ukrainians are saying they don't have enough! Bucha was another miscalculation for Russia. Why would Russia think the Ukrainians could except an occupation when they have seen what Russian "liberation"really means? Critical couple of weeks coming so I'm hoping this does not escalate any further. Buyback certainly helping when you compare us with Barclays. That said they have some other problems at the moment. all IMHO of course.

Small amount of reduction in the Brent/Urals delta today. Has it bottomed out or just a dead cat bounce? Saw an interesting piece on the news yesterday about the possibility that Russia may use tactical nukes in the east. Lavrov saying they will not is probably the biggest warning that they might? Putin's miscalculation is becoming more about the loss of global trust and the rise in Russia phobia than his war. If you lie, lie and lie again to the whole world it's difficult to see a way back to a position of trust. What value is a cease fire agreement or security guarantees from a compulsive liar? If that's bad then the Russia phobia may be worse. It can spawn terrorism and extremism as the west have found out on too many occasions. Ukraine has tonnes of nuclear waste. Normally this is secure but when you turn a country into the wild west it may get into the wrong hands? Just one dirty bomb could turn Moscow into Pripyat. When you march into another country and murder their citizens it can drive the unthinkable and whatever Russia think they maybe able to achieve militarily they may already have let the genie out of the bottle?

Only £1M? Looks like he's getting off light IMO!

Hindsight is of course a wonderful thing but If I'd have invested in Chevron (or most other oilers) instead of CASP I'd be laughing all the way to the bank right now. Not surprised people have jumped ship. I am of course concerned about the geopolitical situation but the problem here is starting to look more like management..... or a lack of?

Cheers Ty.

I doubt we will see any announcement much before the deadline. If Tullow can't find a JV partner with Brent at record prices then it's a poor show. IMO almost nothing is ever fully priced in so we will see some movement either way but I doubt it will be massive. Let's hope the news will be good when it lands!

Thanks KK. Urals price looks to be in free fall Vs Brent. No sign of any respite or end to the conflict/sanctions that are driving this. Critical couple of weeks for the Ukrainians. If their forces in the Donbas become surrounded and cut off then Russia will have won a significant victory and Ukraine may have to face up to unconditional surrender or annihilation? Sadly, I doubt even that will be an end to this conflict. When you cut through the BS coming from the West, support for the Ukrainians is more important than ever and too little too late won't cut it. I doubt May 9th will result in a Russian cease fire unless the Ukrainians can stop Russia in the Donbas. More likely a chance for Putin to tell the world about his great victory and that he will continue to press on and de-nazify the rest of Ukraine/Moldova/Latvia/Poland? Think I'll start looking for a Russian language CD on flea bay!

Famous last words of course. The board has gone very red. Anyone know anything about our mid morning seller? Seems to unload 1.3-1.5M (ish) shares in two bites and it's become a habit!

Yep. 1 trade for a pittance and the company takes a 3.5% hit to it's market capitalisation. Tiz the nature of the present situation I'm afraid. Clive managed to destroy sentiment with that last RNS. With the CPC scheduled to be back to full output by EO April does anyone have any thoughts on if we will return to CPC blend pricing?

Let's see if our invisible CEO decides to do a bit of leadership next week? That might steady the ship but I suspect he would need to look "leadership" up in a dictionary?