Member Info for onedaysoonish

Don't think I've seen the board this quiet for a while. Probably says it all in terms of present sentiment? Can't see any blue on the screen and very low trading volumes today. I guess we are all getting punch-drunk with 2022. Come on Clive, we need something to help us keep the faith.

I think it's all been said here. Staggering incompetence from people who were too busy ticking the options list for the Aston Martin's they are buying with their 2021 bonus to do their jobs properly! Share holders should not be expected to foot the full cost of these failings so I would support a bonus freeze/claw-back for the senior managers and the teams involved in this fiasco. The buyback should be happening right now given the SP damage this fiasco has created. If I cost the company I work for £1M i'd be staring down the barrel of a P45 so how many heads need to roll for this mess? Barclays need to make cultural and structural changes to make sure this can't happen again and send a clear message to employees and shareholders that they are managing the business rather than the business managing them.

KK, Yep. Agree with those comments. Good news that we have not seen an RNS on reduced output. I think the present geopolitical situation makes partnerships and boat charter less likely despite of the global need for oil that doesn't come from Russia. We should be generating strong revenues so it makes sense to build some capital reserves in case we have to manage further disruption and then look to plough cash into accelerated development of the production capacity. And yes, spring is here so I would expect to see activity increase and I'm hoping for some sort of update from Clive on monthly production numbers, average price realised and operational progress.

Can't find an update on CPC since yesterday's news that 1 of the 3 loading stations was potentially operational. CPC say three weeks for repairs, Russia say two months? No Kazakh partners have been allowed to examine the damage so read what you will into that. CPC capacity is 50% with one loading station operational as they only use two of the three at any one time.

Yep. sanctions for Russia and supporters of Russia (tough luck for Belarus). China will want to take any advantage they can from this I suspect and right now that's not by getting too far into bed with Russia. N Korea having a launching spree while the world is a bit distracted. What's wrong with us? The human species that is?

Thanks for the articles. Looks like the timing of the CPC announcement was an effort to throw a spanner in the works of yesterdays meetings? When you cut through the BS the cold hard facts are that, in financial terms at least, the level of EU support for Russia from oil and gas revenues probably exceeds their support for Ukraine? Scholz and company may be judged by history for this. Good news for Kaz that the CPC is, at least in part, back in business.

Good luck to the guy. Business politics can be misleading so I'll judge him on his results.

Honest answer..... If you had asked in late December 21 I'd have said go for it. Right now it's not for widows and orphans but there's no gain without a degree of risk. DYOR as usual.

LOL Hoody. Quite agree. That said, I suspected the SP would take a kicking given the CPC news but it's not as bad as I thought? There is even a sprinkling of blue on the screen. I'm staying away from the buy button here today but good luck to those who have been buying in. Let's hope Kaz finds ways to keep oil deliveries going and that somebody in the Kremlin has sense enough to end this madness!

I think the CPC accounts for about two thirds of the Kazakh oil exports so there are other routes. What I don't know is the additional capacity those other routes can accommodate? Presumably the local sales would continue but I'm not sure about local prices at the moment. Foul play? Looks like doesn't it? Grudgingly have to accept that it would be a smart play by Russia. Take 1Mbopd + out of the world economy with minimal impact to Russian finances as the POO will more than make up for the Russian volume loss. Kaz economy now being chucked under the bus for Putin's war. So how long will the CPC be out? If you read the news they are suggesting 2 months but the reality could be as long as Putin wants it closed.

Wishful thinking by Putin I suspect. No doubt that the war is having an impact on western economies but Russian sanctions are not that effective as yet. Some big meetings tomorrow that may change things up? The days of the EU being dependant on Russian gas and oil are numbered. Putin may now be looking to weaponize food? No wheat from Ukraine will cause massive problems in some parts of the world. Putin clearly believes he has a technical superiority in weapons at the moment and he's going to push that for all it's worth. Given the billions the US has been spending on black projects they should be well ahead of anything the Russians have but it's starting to look like they have little more than a bag of magic beans? The west need to be ramping up it's nuclear capability in short order. It's all very quiet on that front at the moment which is a concern. If Putin secures a result in Ukraine he may push ahead somewhere else sooner rather than later. The problem the EU have is that they are bankrolling all this at the moment. I think oil embargo's will depend on the West's strategy to deal with Putin. Buy time or tackle him now? I think they will go with the buy time option but who knows if Putin will let them have that time?

Difficult to call at the moment. Seems to be a lot of churn in the market as China and India hoover up Russian oil. You would have to suspect both of those countries are cutting back on their demand from elsewhere? I think the sanctions have been interesting in that they started as a government initiative, was followed up by corporations pulling the plug on Russia and is now about Joe public saying we don't want to keep spending money with Russia. The sad truth here is that the EU are funding the war at the moment so perhaps Joe public have a point? It's becoming increasingly uncomfortable watching what is happening in Mariupol and winding the thermostat up to 22. Sanctions on Russian oil and gas are probably when rather than if?

I agree. $300m over the entire period stated. That's a decent payback and we know that if oil stays over $100 then it looks even better. Seems like we have been waiting ages for this so nice to see it land at last.

POO jumped again this morning. No news today but we all know there should be an update in the next couple of weeks and the onset of spring should get things moving again. I agree with the comments below. We need to cash in while oil is at historic highs but that means concentrating on the shallows unless local prices have moved up? We must be banking cash right now. In some respects I would rather have an update on the finances than the operations. Volume is vanity after all. I want to ask some questions about the boat at the next AGM. It's not like it's a zero cost asset when it's doing nothing, and it's doing a lot of nothing! If it comes to paying divi's or paying for the boat I'll take the divi. Come on CASP, the foundations are in place so let's build.

Welcome to the twilight zone. It's a bit like a ride at Alton Towers..... lots of ups and downs, scary at times but somehow we keep coming back for more. Difficult to find value in oil at the moment so hopefully you see a decent return on Tullow.

DM, I agree. I think we would be north of 4p on positive news about the conflict in Ukraine even if it means the POO retraces. Anything further will probably require CASP giving us something positive which we know should be on the cards. We know the POO has little impact on SP but it should do wonders for our fundamentals. I bought more this week. Too early? Yep, but news can come at any time. I'm with you on the support at around 3.8p. As for the divi..... It's not why I'm invested here but if , and its a big IF, it broadens our appeal to a different type of investor then fair enough.

Thanks for the article. The cold hard facts here could be that this will drag on for some time yet. Russia is suffering significant losses and the longer this goes on the harder it will be to avoid a backlash from the Russian people. 10-20,000 funerals would be hard to cover up and threatening returning Russian soldiers from talking isn't going to work. There seems to be some sort of naive view from Putin that an end to the war will mean an end to the sanctions. I doubt the West will want to give him the chance to re-finance and re-arm. If Putin could have afforded to play the stop card it would probably have been played by now? The west need to make sure that if Putin doesn't chose to stop in Ukraine he is stopped by force. Weapons, mercenaries, possibly even little green men. Everything short of direct identifiable involvement. Putin is dangerous and the west have strengthened his position over the tears through appeasement. This is an opportunity to see Putin weakened and the narrative that Russia will suffer for as long as Putin is in charge strengthened. It's all very volatile but I don't think the off ramp is there yet so I think the price of oil will hold up for some time to come.

There's a desensitising to oil @ $100 going on at the moment. After $139 and talk of $200 anything in the 90's or low 100's is starting to look reasonable. Back in Q4 last year Biden was bemoaning $85 and threatening to release the US reserve. The good news for the oil industry is that the political pain threshold has moved. It would be nice to get some news this month but they do like to keep us waiting!

What price Richard Miller gets the role permanently?

It's possible that Russian oil will have to have it's own price index going forward? India, China and a few others will still buy from Russia but the price may be bargain bucket. Not 100% sure how the CPC will work given the mix it carries? Kaz needs co-operation with Russia and customers in the West for it's oil. Nothing new there of course but it's good that the Kaz government seem to be able to walk that tightrope.