Member Info for onedaysoonish

BB, sadly you are right and it's a problem across more than Barc. That said I thought there would be some positive action today in anticipation of the results. I would have expected to be back around 190p if we had already released results that fell short of expectations and announced a disappointing divi? Hopefully we will have something tomorrow morning to justify staying invested here. Come on Barclays, don't let us down this time!

Half of me thinks it's good that the change in fundamentals here is being more widely recognised. The other half wants to top up a bit first!

KK, Yep, and with Brent in the high 90's this morning revenue is outweighing the geopolitical news...... Just. I watched Putin's speech last night. A paranoid ramble IMO! That said the reaction from the West, Johnson in particular, looked provocative to me. Russia saying it is prepared to recognise the Donbass as independent is more about what comes next than the act itself. If there is any sincerity on either side to resolve this with diplomacy now's the time. So what next? Russian "peace keepers" going into the Donbass separatist region? As Prince Andrew has found out life can be about choosing your friends carefully. I wouldn't choose Ukraine or Russia as friends of mine, nor the US for that matter!

I agree. To get the obvious out of the way, we have bought into a business that is in the process of rebuilding it's balance sheet and that will take time. Rahul's plan to do that looks robust to me. We all get frustrated with hedging but the reality is that the plan Tullow have insulates them from the worst excesses of POO and interest rate movements. I suspect that if Tullow had continued along the McDade strategy there would no longer be a company here to talk about!

I'm positive about March 9th because I'm expecting the finances to out perform expectations and confirm we are on, or ahead of track on the Balance sheet rebuild. Given what I have said it would be reasonable to expect the SP to be solid but hey ho Markets don't seem to work like that!

DM, Good luck, I don't know much about the 3.0 but it has a better rep than the 3.6....... but then again a 10 year old Dacia has a better rep than the 3.6!

KK, I agree. I think rationality is out of the window at the moment. Deciding to hold the nuclear exercise last week was Putin trying another angle on the threatening behaviour. I think his biggest problem is Ukraine, not NATO. It's a big country with sizeable armed forces. How long could he keep an occupying force in Ukraine? Or how long would the Ukrainians put up with a puppet government if he tried to go that route? How many casualties in his own forces can he reasonably accept before public opinion turns sour on him? I think he would get support from the West for trying to resolve the issue in the Donbas providing it was based on what the people in that region actually want. I still think it's just too much of a gamble to go into government controlled Ukraine. I think the forces in Bel and on the northern Ukrainian border are a smoke screen for a formal annexation of Donbas?

Charlie Munger was talking about the casino element of investing these days on his annual Yahoo Finance Q&A. Frustrating if you are a PI for sure. What does seem to hold true is that if the big boys want in then they will push the price down first. Not sure that applies to tullow at the moment but with Oil in the 90's we are worth more than 48p IMO, hedging or not.

DM, hopefully it's not a 3.6TDV8 Turbo. Or, if it is, that you have a watertight warranty that covers the turbo's. Dealer actually gave me a full refund on mine when the turbo's failed. On the plus side they do help push POO in the right direction so at least you can benefit as a CASP Oligarch.

Some good points raised here. I'm positive about the impact the results will have but clearly it's about the company's attitude towards how shareholders will benefit from that. Like many others I have held Lloyds for several years and I believe there is value here. That said if the BOD decide the profits are there to pay bumper bonuses to themselves/staff and short change shareholders then value doesn't matter much.

I accept that when HMG decided the banks should not pay dividends in 2020 there was not much Lloyds could do about it. The scars of 2008 still run deep in Government. It's right to say that that turned out not to be necessary, and 2021 numbers have been supported by releasing COVID related debt provision. It's also right to say that the money set aside for 2020 dividend payments belongs to shareholders. So, do we get rewarded for our patients this year or shortchanged again? Not long to wait and find out.

I think KK was right about the Ukraine situation. POO goes up when diplomacy is failing and vice versa. And, as you have pointed out the CASP SP does the opposite. POO stable but moving into the blue this morning!
I think Putin was metaphorically 2 nil up last Tuesday but it looks like he's conceded a goal and is pinned back in his own half. Arms reduction and NATO backing off look to be well and truly off the table given the tactic of negotiating at the end of a gun barrel. I suspect the US are either in possession of duff intelligence or playing the "we know what you are up to" card in the hope Putin will do anything to prove them wrong?
Invading Ukraine right now would not be the action of a rational man IMO. It could spell devastation for the Russian economy. Not what you need when you are paying for an expensive war. Maybe Putin's ego just sees a sweeping Russian victory but that might not play out the way he expects. What if Ukraine throw everything into an attack of the Russian staging and support areas as soon as Russian tanks are on Ukrainian soil? What if Ukraine has "little green men" of it's own? Give Putin a black eye then play hit and run tactics with his invading forces to extend the conflict and inflict ongoing losses? Can't see the Russian people being too happy if the invasion turns into another Afghanistan.
I still don't think he Putin conduct a full invasion. Maybe an incursion into Donbas? Who knows for sure? Is he thinking straight or is he like Hitler deciding to invade Russia? Some talk of a US/Russia summit this morning so lets hope large scale bloodshed can be avoided.

The war itself would probably have less impact on Lloyds than the sanctions but market volatility is probably a given if Russia does invade. Some of the risk has been priced in but not all IMO. That said, I think Russia wants to push this to the brink but an actual invasion? Not so sure. The Russian people don't want this and thousands of body bags going back to Russia would be a disaster for Putin. His one hope would be a quick victory with minimal casualties but given the time he has allowed Ukraine to plan for their defence how can he be sure he could pull this off? I credit Putin with enough intelligence to realise he can get the best outcome for Russia without invading but who really knows? Not sure if the separatist activity is driven from Moscow or if the separatists are just kicking off to goad the Ukrainians into further breaches of Minsk?

CC, you are right about the last RNS. The detail there took time effort and money to put together. It's clear they want to attract a different type of investor/investment going forward. We keep talking about the potential for growth here and waiting for capital from operations to accelerate that growth is starting to look pedestrian. Who knows what news we might get at some stage this year?

Nice to see a steady return to normality in Kaz. Not out of the woods quite yet but so much better than Jan. We now need to see some progress on the Ukraine border. Putin had the upper hand on Tuesday but he's overplayed his hand IMO. Blinken put Russia on the spot yesterday and restored some credibility for his boss. It reminded me of the Kazakh unrest. There was a time window when they could have got the most out of the situation but they took it too far and it turned nasty. If Putin wants the best outcome from this he needs to draw down his forces. The threat of re-escalation is his best weapon going forward. Let's hope one outcome from this is an end to the war in the East of Ukraine. Good for the Ukrainians, the people of Russia and stability in the region. All IMHO of course.

Well fair play. Nice to see people telling us what they are up to in real time. Good luck Falky, results next week so It's a decent punt providing Putin stays out of his neighbours back yard. I think we should be OK on that front although like every spoiled child he's loving the attention and dragging his feet putting his toys away.

That's taken some exercising of the grey matter. If the plan was to take this to the next level then now would be a good time to start. Getting the debt liability off the books clears the decks. We are a small, profitable, debt free oil producer with massive potential for growth. The only downside is geopolitical uncertainty but that looks to be slowly improving, in Kaz at least. Thanks for the post. Thought provoking to say the least.

100k shares is £1,000 per penny so not to be sneezed at. It's not important to me how many shares each of the posters may have. What is important is how significant that holding is for them, their reasons for being long/short here and the sincerity of their views. The CASP board is one of the better boards on LSE IMO. Bickering is minimal and there are some really knowledgeable posters here.

A fair thread. It feels like we are being frightened out of our stock at the moment. Results next week so no way I'm selling before then. Managing fear is part of this investing game!

You pays your money......... I don't believe he will invade Ukraine at this time. He's getting all he is likely to get without firing a shot. 8 years ago he could have taken Ukraine without any serious resistance. If he goes in now, after months of showing his hand, he's going to need a lot of body bags. Add in the loss of Nord Stream 2 and other sanctions and the price of taking Ukraine is too high. He's an opportunist not a fool. That said, he will continue to play this for all it's worth. He has already made the US/UK/NATO look like mugs and he's loving it. He's holding all the cards so we can expect continued instability until he gets enough to claim he's won a victory over NATO. All IMHO of course.

Putin still playing his games so some of yesterday's relief is unwinding. He hasn't got what he wants yet so I suspect he will continue to poke NATO with a stick and let US paranoia do the rest. I don't think he will invade at this time but he will continue to rattle his sabre for all it's worth.

Putin is still playing games so 25% of our production is still benefiting from a higher POO. As you say hedging is priced in right now and if Tullow manage to hit/exceed the debt reduction plan then we might see the need for hedging much reduced going forward.

Putin still playing games so it's spooked the markets again this morning. Oil up is the good news so we continue to bank money. Putin has played this well so far but he is in danger of overplaying his hand. This mornings retrace was predictable but the case for holding is still strong IMO.