Member Info for onedaysoonish

I watched a docu on Vietnam recently and they were interviewing a US service man who had been there. They asked him what he had learned there. His answer........ we didn't become the dominant species on the planet because we are nice. One of Putin's cronies was asked "when will Putin's Russia stop? Hie answer...... when you stop us.

Putin is defining his legacy right now. He wanted to be seen as the man that made Russia great but he is more likely to wind up as a war criminal, a 21st century Hitler. Ironic then that he claims that he's ridding Ukraine of Nazi's. Nobody believes him anymore, even China are watching the condemnation grow and wondering if it's in their interests to stick too close to their new friend. The only way the world will be rid of him will be when his cronies turn on him to restart the gravy train.

Putin has showed his hand. He will try and take what he wants with threats and war and he will either succeed or be stopped once and for all. I don't know what the US have been spending their black billions on for the last few years but let's hope it's enough. Sorry if this is off topic and pessimistic but we are at a crossroads here.

Let's hope there are some level heads in the Kremlin. CC's right and Putin can order nuclear deployment but the middle word in the acronym MAD is "assured". Even if Putin thinks he can win I doubt there are many others in the Kremlin that are that st*pid? I'm not selling at the moment as I think Russia maybe looking for a face saving out?

The situation has changed since Thursday. The Ukrainian fight back, meaningful sanctions and world opinion all going against Putin. As KK says he's losing the PR war so he has resorted to shouting about the nuclear threat.
Gold at silly levels and stock sell off is broad this morning. Bizarrely, Roman Abramovich is now involved in the peace talks which might tend to suggest that Russian elite have lost faith in Putin? Is this the beginning of the end for Putin? Doubtful at this stage but here's hoping!
With the EU more or less saying they don't want to do business with Russia oil from kaz will become more important. That carries opportunities as well as risks. Let's hope the slim chance that the talks are providing comes good. Putin can and probably will take the biggest Ukrainian cities at some stage if the conflict persists. That said he can't stop the Ukrainians fighting without agreement with the Ukrainian leaders. I wonder what the Russian military are thinking right now? Not quite the welcome they were promised!
Putin needs to be careful about involving Belarus as that is another escalation that will bring more revulsion from the West. Biden quite at the moment which Putin should think about.
Gobzilla (Lavish Liz) getting the blame for the nuclear escalation this morning. Hopefully this madness ends soon and our little oiler comes out the other side in good shape.

Well I've got this very wrong so far. Didn't think Putin was mad enough to actually Invade, especially considering he himself said he had no plans to do so. Thought the Ukrainian armed forces would put up a solid and painful resistance. Thought the West would respond with some real bite but Russia seemed to have dodged the worse bullets on sanctions. Didn't think any significant world leader outside of North Korea would threaten the use of nuclear weapons but I think most people now believe that he has. The upside is that this may well wind up being a short conflict. Let's hope so. I can't see Zelensky coming out of this still in power. Biden didn't really answer the "what does your intelligence tell you Putin will do next" question. How does diplomacy work going forward with a liar who now sees military action backed up with threats against anyone and everyone as the way to getting what he wants? He appears to want the old Soviet Union back so perhaps the Germans need to reflect on what that might mean for them! Can't help thinking there may be some difficult meetings in Washington and elsewhere right now about how they deal with Putin once and for all. As for us and our little oiler? Well let's hope for stability going forward. Good for us and, most of all, good for the people in the regions the shadow of Putin hangs over.

CC, I see what you are saying and I agree your thoughts on Kaz. As for Ukraine...... I still think Putin has miscalculated the scale of the backlash of war in Europe. What I'm struggling with is the Ukrainian military response at this stage. They have had months to prepare for this and a massive equipment injection but resistance seems to be very muted so far? I agree that neither side was prepared to give ground on the diplomatic front. It almost felt like Putin was goaded into this by NATO and the US? I actually think Putin has done more for unity within NATO and the EU than any European leader could have managed which is one of the reasons I thought he would not go this far. I still think this could wind up being Putin's bridge to far?

Real mix for me. Profits clearly marred by still paying for problems with HBOS 14 years after taking them on and this has been grabbing some city headlines this morning. The profit forecasts I was looking at before the results were generally north of £7bn so close but no cigar. Progressive divi strategy? Yep. The consensus on the divi forecast I saw at was 2.07p so again not quite there. Controversial I know but I believe buybacks are better for long term holders than divi's that can be hoovered up by anyone and £2bn is meaningful. I thought the Q3 numbers were fantastic but FY are a bit lacklustre for me. Difficult with the Ukraine situation to fully assess the impact of these results but Lloy down a lot further than the FTSE this morning. 5p and 9.6% down as I post!

Still struggling to believe Putin has actually pushed the button on this. Brent at 103 now...... no surprise. Very difficult to get a picture of what's happening this morning. Supposed to be a full scale invasion but it's not looking like that at the moment. Occupation troops in the Donbass, attacks on Ukrainian military targets and Russian forces crossing the border in a few locations. I, for one, didn't believe Putin would be mad enough to actually do this. Seems like he doesn't care. See's himself as some sort of hero fighting against tyranny? My thoughts are with the people of Ukraine right now.

So true. Johnson hiding behind this and claiming Russia have already invaded Ukraine. Well yes, we all knew the little green men in the Donbass didn't come from outer space so they have effectively formalised the invasion they initiated in 2014. Rhetoric about the entire Donbass region becoming independent seems to be toned down today. Looks like Russia was not expecting the Nord Stream 2 decision. No doubt Putin finding out his cronies will turn on him in short order if their gravy train is at stake.

Let's hope Lloy's results are just as good in the morning!

Yep. Was thinking the same myself. Half expected to see an RNS but nothing yet. I don't do conspiracy theories but today's SP action is interesting and welcome.

See BB's post below. It's fair to say there's not much loyalty to share holders these days. Is it fair to suggest that they have chosen to structure share holder returns the way they have because buy backs can benefit longer term shareholders while divi's can be hoovered up by short term traders? Don't get me wrong, as a long term holder here, I want as much as I can get and I feel cheated by what happened in 2020 but It's a sunk loss. Honestly I think some of the sentiment here is reflected in the SP this morning. Yes it's blue but 3% on those results is the real disappointment for me.

UK sanctions are a joke but fair play to the Germans, Nord Stream 2 kicked Russia where it hurts, especially given the fact Russia hasn't really invaded Ukraine as yet. Putin saying the door to diplomacy is still open this morning....... hopefully he means it this time? I saw him on RT on Monday saying Russia are used to sanctions and he didn't care about them but Russia's economy only accounts for about 3% of global GDP so he can't sustain protracted conflict and painful sanctions for long before his cronies turn on him.

I'm no accountant but if you look at BARC divi's and buy backs over the full 12 months, including what has already been returned, (£1.5bn & 6p total) then I get very close to 15p/share return. Hope this helps?

That'll do!

Yep. and £1bn of share buy back. Great set of results. P/E looking very investable and some good noises on growth and future performance.

It's crazy but I think somebody needed to do something to kick off some sort of resolution of the Donbass situation. Ukraine effectively lost control of this region in 2014 and it would appear that the people who live there favour Independence over Russia and Russia over Ukraine. We need to be careful that we are not supplying weapons to Ukraine that they use against the Donbass!

Could be right. Sound like Putin is preparing to halt gas transit through Ukraine. That said with NS2 getting the KO by the Germans Putin needs to pull something out of the bag quickly if he needs to pay for a war.

I would agree the retrace is disappointing and, IMO, overdone. With the rest of the energy sector powering ahead we have under performed on SP. That said I believe our financial performance has been strong over the same period and at some stage I'd like to think that news will get us moving in the right direction. Africa is a more stable oil producing region than Kazakhstan or Russia at the moment and we can continue to invest in additional output without much risk. I don't see an overnight change in sentiment but the further we move on from the failings of the McDade era the better I feel about being long here. Can't believe this won't come good for us in the not to distant!

I can't help feeling that if brokers knew what they were doing they would all be on more or less the same page! The fact that we have strong buy through to strong sell, like just about every other stock they advise on, doesn't fill me with any confidence. Like many others on here I DMOR and I'm overweight on Tullow and still adding.

Germans have announced that Nord Stream 2 will not happen and some other sanctions being rolled out today. Putin saying he doesn't care....... which means he and his mates do care...... quite a lot. No signs of meaningful diplomacy at this stage, just continued tit for tat escalation.