The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
"we perforated the first of the three intervals of interest, which resulted in oil flows at approximately 100 bopd". Does this mean it has continued to produce at 100 BOPD or that it produced at this rate for a period of time? If it's the first option then I'm going to assume that they have cleared most of the drilling mud and maintained flow. This would be a very positive breakthrough even if the rate itself is nothing to get excited about. News on the shallows more positive although it's been slow going. Not overwhelmed with the production rate but it does look like 153 & 154 are still flowing?
We should have been at least 5% up this morning but instead we are short of the day! The wording around Les's leaving suggests settlement agreement which, if correct, would mean he has effectively been dismissed. From what I can see in the results it looks like everyone and their dog has been making money from Tullow except Tullow themselves? It's not credible that we didn't exceed expectations given the oil price in Q4 unless something was going very wrong with the management of the company finances. All IMHO of course. Maybe there's a magician looking for a job? If he can make money vanish then he's in! The sell-off looks overdone IMO so I'm waiting on some positive RNS to land over the next few months. Fed up but I still think there is value here.
Disappointing? It's a big yes for me. Looks like Rahul is now clearing out the dead wood (sorry). I was hoping for a profit and positive P/E, EPS but the financing costs in 21 look horrendous to me. No upgrade in 22 forecast despite oil being well north of $100? Really? Aside from the gearing being down to 2.2x the rest was very flat. I get that they are being more conservative these days but this is hugely disappointing. Get a grip Rahul!
If I read it right the US and UK decisions not to buy Russian Oil/Gas going forward are individual sovereign states making a call rather than any form of international sanctions/embargo. Russia can still sell oil to anyone who will buy it so everyone wants to keep the CPC flowing. That's my read at least and it's a positive development. All being forgiven for Iran and Venezuela if they pump oil is a bit cynical but something had to happen. As for a Divi? I don't know but, given the geopolitical volatility, I think I would be hanging onto a cash reserve rather than paying a divi but it's been muted and they might not want to back away from that now. I think if it is paid it will be small but the impact of an AIM company paying any sort of divi is positive. I don't believe the geopolitical situation has done anything positive for the chances of demand for the boat. If nobody wants to charter it with oil at the present levels then we should consider selling/trading it for equipment that can be used on land. I agree that in business terms now would be a good time to partner up. Can't see that happening until the Ukraine situation improves either but never say never. Q1 2022 has been a geopolitical nightmare for CASP but somehow this slippery pig keeps ticking along and banking money. Russia claiming that they have found evidence of chemical weapon development in Ukraine this morning. Good luck with anyone believing a word they say at the moment. It looks like Russia are hurting at the moment. Putin claiming the "operation" is going according to plan is kidding nobody. It's starting to look like Russia need an out on this almost as much as Ukraine do right now. If this can be brought to an end then the world will take a sigh of relief and our oiler will have dodged another bullet.
Average P/E for the FTSE based oil companies is in the 11-12 range so it's difficult to argue against £1.20. That said we still have the debt and our selling price is hedged so we may land a little below the average? What looks for sure is that at 60p we look like fantastic value.
KK, good spot. There are UK banks with very little exposure to Russia falling 20%. Crazy!
The US only take about 1% of Russia's exports so it's no big deal on it's own. The key decision is what the EU decide to do. It's a tougher call for them. Should know in an hour or so.
Fingers crossed. If the results exceed expectations then we could really fly.
tt35, Good article, thank you. KK, Yep you are right. Austria presently import about 80% of their gas from Russia, the EU 40% (depending on whose numbers you believe). That said Putin is not doing anything logical at the moment so the stop card is a real option. He has weaponized energy and may cut off his nose to spite his face. That said he will "Pee" some very serious Russians off if he does. We are about an hour away from a decision on what the EU might do. Looks like they will be planning to ween themselves off Russian gas and oil over the next few years. China and India taking advantage of Russia's problems and buying Russian oil at bargain basement prices. From our perspective it's all about the CPC pipeline. The world will still want oil from Kaz but Putin may decide that's not going to happen? That would mean burning one of the very few friends he has left in the world but he is showing signs of being deluded so who knows?
MS, Rubbish just about sums up broker recommendations. Not even sure why they bother?
Let's see what the result look like and our forward P/E. It's starting to look like Russia are talking hardball but may be looking for an off ramp...... co-ordinated by their mates in China of course! Russia are hurting right now. As much from what is happening on the ground in Ukraine as the condemnation and sanctions from most of the rest of the world. The invasion was a catastrophic miscalculation and a sign that Putin may have lost his grip on reality. Our little oiler can do no more than pump and ship as much oil as possible at the moment. Nobody (aside from Putin) wanted this but it may mean we clear down our debt a whole lot faster than planned. That said let's hope the killing stops soon.
Difficult to know what is priced in at the moment. The shares for debt swap should be priced in but clearly a long term stoppage would not be. Having made his miscalculation Putin is doubling down and would be untouchable if he can pull this off. The only viable option for the West and Ukraine at this stage is to make Russia feel massive pain from this. Sanctioning Oil and Gas further right now would create more problems for the EU than the Russians so that's probably not the way to go..... at least in the short term. Sadly, the West probably need this to drag on and become a long term Russian mess. A decisive victory will leave an emboldened Putin looking for his next excuse to invade somewhere else.
Not seen the German news when I posted. Looks like they have made the difficult but correct decision not to push oil prices further up!
Don't get me wrong, I don't want to spend my money at the pumps to fund a war but....... The truth is that with Crude prices going through the roof any sanctions on Russian Oil/Gas right now are more likely to financially benefit Russia than hurt them. The volume loss could be more than made up for on price and there is always somebody who will buy oil from them. The US and EU know this and should be factoring it into their sanctions calculation. The problem maybe public opinion. Do the wrong thing because it's perceived as the right thing?
The way to hurt Russia is open the taps not close them off. Keep them open and building inventory will push prices back down under $100. Keep the pressure on their banks. Some Russian banks excluded from SWIFT means that some Russian banks are still on SWIFT and this means Russia are still on the system. Restricted access to other currencies is hurting them and their currency is still tanking with talk of Russian debt defaults becoming more likely. Restricting their access to technology will not hurt here and now but in a couple of years that could be one of the hardest sanctions of all? If the West wants to scupper Russia's economy then they need oil prices down so production in the US, Africa, North sea, Kaz etc. etc. needs to be ramped up.
The West need to be very clear about saying that we will not let them off the hook in 12 months if they have decimated Ukraine. Putin seems to think it will all blow over so he needs telling otherwise...... Unless of course there is a communication channel open telling him otherwise?
What I think I'm saying is that logic does not dictate turning taps off is the right thing to do.... Of course when did logic have anything to do with the world? If logic was at play here he would never have invaded in the first place. Talks today unlikely to result in much but Russia's demands look watered down to me. No talk of de-nazification and it looks more like they want an off ramp that will let them claim victory?
What we have here is more than an armed conflict in Ukraine. It's a game changer. Let's hope it can be resolved more quickly than we think and that Russia have learned something from this mess.
Yeh.... I feel sorry for the shorters as well :). I doubt there are too many of them in the energy stocks at the moment. Too busy elsewhere. I think the US will have to face facts and pump oil at some stage but even that won't crash oil prices. Results for us in a couple of days. Could be some decent SP movement later this week if they pan out the way we all suspect.
Question, following it's trip in a tanker I assume our oil gets fed into the CPC pipeline? If so is there any other way to ship oil from Kaz? Geopolitical issues definitely bigger then Oil price here at the moment.
So was the Nuclear power station attack Russia trying to push oil up further, instigate another nuclear disaster on the world or just catastrophic stupidity? There is another option of course which is Russia are trying to make a point with the West? Was this what Putin was talking to Macron about yesterday when he said the worst is still to come? I don't understand where this is going and can only conclude that the once rational, calculating, shrewd and ruthless Putin has lost touch with reality? What next?
And I've worked out when Lavrov is telling porkies...... his mouth is moving! Just like his boss.
The "Operation" was a miscalculation, the war it has turned into a major miscalculation and the devastation he is unleashing on Ukrainian city's an atrocity. Russia are being ostracised. UN diplomats walking out during Lavrov's speech yesterday was unprecedented. It appears the world is fed up with Russian excuses, Russian lies and Russian wars.
The Ukrainian rep at the UN said yesterday that if Putin want's to commit suicide he should do what Hitler did in May 45. Badge, you are right. Invading Ukraine was a huge mistake for Russia. Putin knows this now but he is still pushing ahead which doesn't say much for his state of mind. The threat from Russia this morning is that economic war can turn into real war. He has dragged Russia's standing into the dirt with this. Can he survive? I don't know. Despots have, if nothing else, proved time and again that they can hang on when everyone else believes they are finished. He might have to order a nuclear strike before others in Russia decide that they don't want to commit suicide.