Member Info for onedaysoonish

Yep. If you look at the prices many of today's sells look more like buys. Either that or some people are getting an amazing deal on their sells? Not unusual. I don't know why this happens but I'm sure there are people here who might.

As we are looking at a wider agenda here I'll throw something else into the pot. I know you like to think a little deeper so it's just a theory but I don't think Russia has any intention of invading Ukraine. By design or accident Putin is getting everything he wants from the West without firing a shot. The Germans have already rolled over, everyone else is running around pampering to him and Pinocchio is only over there hoping it will take some heat off the UK situation. Putin can, and probably will, continue to choke the life out of the Ukrainian economy so no chance of any Russian withdrawal at this stage. In fact he will probably continue to ramp up the pressure until he gets something he can claim as a victory over "NATO aggression". My problem here is, if I believe my helicopter view of events, where should I be putting some money to benefit from either the continued medium term risk (Oil?) or an eventual resolution?

Right on SC, If H2 is not ahead of forecast then I don't know quite what they have been doing with the money. Everything hangs on oil price and, despite the Omicron hiccup, it was ahead of expectations for most of the half. We need a shot of confidence on March 9th if only to make the shorter's think twice. Does anyone know if we have received the 75M from Total yet? Supposed to be early this year but I've not seen anything.

KK, yes I do tend to trade up and down depending on how I see the risk/reward equation playing out. The fundamentals for the company look better than ever even if the stability in the region is still not 100% clear. Still a lot better than a month ago which is why I'm a buyer again. I always try and invest on the basis of belief in the management team which seems to be stronger with Shin on board. Can't say I have always felt like that here mind! I've not been here as long as you but it was Roxi when I started so it's been a while. One day Rodder's seems to be the catch phrase here.

KK, Yep. I had to pay 3.88p for the 260k shares. A mate of mine is a project manager for the oil industry and he confirms that investment is back on. $80+ for Brent is their signal to wake up so let's hope somebody wants to do some boating.

B, Bottle it and sell it. Optimism is a rare commodity here this week.

OK, so either my broker got more realistic or the price has moved slightly. Anyhow, I now have 260k more shares. Might add some more before spring but not expecting anything special before then. Trouble with this share is you just don't know! FOMO?

KK, correct. I've just been quoted 3.93 to buy 250k. I resisted temptation! Maybe I need a new broker? I would be the first to admit I was wrong if the boat turns into a money spinner but it's not happened yet. If there's no charter contract immanent with Brent at $90 then they need a plan B IMO. White elephant, two careful owners, hardly used, no reasonable offer refused! If I remember right the boat was controversial with some PI's when we bought it?

We didn't need the retrace but that's all part of the game i suppose. Disappointing when Brent is going to levels not seen for many years but the fundamentals here are getting stronger every day at $90. Makes the investment case for additional capacity look very attractive as well. Let's face it the oil price gains have been better than we could reasonably have expected and I don't believe its priced into Tullow at 52p. We need positive news to perk things up. Let's hope the 21FY numbers look solid. All IMHO of course.

All MHO of course but 1 Bitcoin or 20+ ounces of Gold is an easy call for me. I suspect the next financial meltdown will be Crypto related. Yes, it's prudent to hedge against inflation and I know that some well respected companies are putting it on their balance sheets but it can swing 30% in one trading session which is not something I'd expect from a currency and it's way to volatile for me. Good luck to those who have done well with Crypto and the price does seem to be recovering again. My problem is that I had JMK beaten into me so I struggle with things like derivatives and Crypto. DYOR is, as always, the best advice.

Thanks guys. As one who will continue freezing his knacks off in the UK during Feb you could have told us you were off for a long weekend in Grimsby or something!

Victor, Yep. Guess I’m getting old. Not sure anyone would believe me if I did explain!

LTI, Many thanks. You are of course right about investors and their targets. I'm hoping the results, dividend and buy back plan will prove to be positive for Lloy. Livestock, I suspect it's all posturing at this stage. Andrew's legal team must know his chances in a US civil court are slim to none. Settling is the norm but it's very close to an admission of guilt despite any "without prejudice" clauses. If Andrew wants a reasonable chance to clear his name he needs to do it outside of the US civil courts. Let's face it, it's Giuffre's legal team that chose to do this in the US and they did that because they believe it will favour their case. There is also the spectre of what else might fall out in a court case. Barclays have already suffered a high profile casualty from the Epstein scandal so who else might be sweating this out? If Andrew is guilty then he deserves to be punished in a criminal court IMO. Paying the plaintiff off in a civil settlement to avoid the consequences of what he might have done seems wrong to me and going the route of a US civil jury is at best a punt. It may well be that Andrew's legal team are trying to put pressure on Giuffre's team and other potentially powerful parties with this "bring it on" approach. Andrew and his legal team can chose to ignore the US civil courts and ignore any judgement/compensation they may impose. Again, not great for his reputation. If he gets this to a criminal court then the burden of proof becomes beyond reasonable doubt rather than balance of probability. Great if he's innocent but runs the risk of a custodial sentence if he is found guilty. That said I doubt he'd be "down the scrubs"! Maxwell is now appealing her conviction because of a screw up with some of the jurors. Good old US justice system....... If the gloves don't fit they'll have to acquit!

Totally agree. US pundits are now telling investors to fill their boots with Tech stock P/E's down to 25-30. The contagion from the US correction in what look like overpriced stock is irrational but sadly inevitable. Back down to £1.95 today with just over three weeks to the results. If you look at BARC over the last 12 months then it's been a good investment but if you look at the longer term picture, forward P/E, forecast EPS and the probability of further interest rates then we should be doing better. The market is spooked by the prospect of war in Europe and economic sanctions and there will be further contagion and fallout if it happens rational or not. I'm long here and have been for several years but there are days when I wonder if the lack of favourable sentiment towards UK financials is just too ingrained. Let's hope the results are just too good for value investors to ignore.

Just over 3 weeks to the results and Divi declaration. I look at the forward P/E and pre-pandemic SP, no more PPi claims and no more gov ownership, a consensus of broker forecasts and an environment in which we are expecting to see rising interest rates yet we can't seem to maintain much over 50p? Following the correction in the US the pundits are advising investors snap up "value" stock with existing profitability to hedge against tightening market liquidity while over here Lloyds is still under performing the market. Beat's me!

Thanks both, I agree, a re-rate would be on the cards based on potential if we get a deep up towards the flow rates we all hope to see. It will be interesting to see how they develop A8.

Ask Putin!

Yesterday's update could have been shortened to "On track and staying focused on debt". I was hoping for something more bullish but it was factual with no nasty surprises. March 9 might give us a clearer picture and a little more to shout about? It is becoming clear that they just get on with plan A without feeling the need for shop dressing. Positive? Well it didn't set the SP on fire but it was a solid update so, along with Oil at $80-90, it'll do me till March.

rhertig, Many thanks for explaining the process. Clearly a long way to go before any of the deeps can make a meaningful contribution to the finances. No wonder there seems to be an increasing emphasis on developing the shallow fields where the licences are already approved. Be interesting to see what the next news focuses on. My other oiler produces circa 60,000 BOPD and the SP is in the 50-60p range so there is still a journey here.

Cheers rhertig. Could it be that having consistent output from A8 will allow us to make a licence application for the deep wells? I don't know what local prices are atm but I can't believe we will make much, if any, money at $20ish. If we do apply I hope it's approved more quickly than SY.