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All IMHO of course!

No question that this is not going the way Putin saw it back in Feb. If we forget about the Nazi rhetoric then there are some in Russia who probably saw Ukraine as an opportunity to further their wealth and weaponize the worlds bread basket. I think there was a honest, if misguided view, in Russia that the Ukrainian military would throw in with the Russian's after a couple of days of fighting. If that had happened then Putin may have rolled on into other territories by now so Ukrainian narrative about this being a fight for European values has some substance.

Of course none of that has happened. Russia has launched a mob of well armed bandits on Ukraine. The Kleptocrats had siphoned the money out of their military so they sent their mob into battle with 40 year old trucks, tanks and Lada's with Z's painted on the side. That said Russia have neither lost nor given up on this so it's dangerous for the West to think they can ease off the throttle in terms of support. I would argue it's time for the West to double down.

Surely there are factions within the Russian elite who have fallen out with Putin and don't share his disregard for blowing the world up? Russia have played the threat and appeasement card really well over the years but that stopped working when Putin overplayed the hand. He now follows through on his threats or backs down.

The world needs Russia on side. At some stage they need to be brought back into the global economy and new relationships need to be formed. It's unlikely Putin can deliver that.

The fall of Mariupol today gives Russia a landmark victory to bank and maybe an opportunity to tell the world the Nazi's have been defeated? There has been no real efforts to negotiate a peace from either side over the last few weeks. There may be an opportunity here if they decide to take it? If, as looks likely, that won't happen then this will drag on even further. Russia has a point when it claims the West has a stake in this. They want Russia weakened and Putin out of power but we are not there yet.

For us of course, we want a return to a peaceful Europe but that can't come as a time out with Russia being let off the hook. Sadly I think the journey to peace has a way to run yet.

Yep. It's poor that Investors have to wait four and a half months for their payments but I guess we just have to suck it up. Let's hope for a re-investment bounce? The SP is more than 20p lower than pre-pandemic levels. No more gov ownership, no more PPI claims, increasing interest rates and there should be about 4.5Bn less shares in circulation by the time the buy back is completed. With a P/E of 6 and a yield of 5% or so this looks like a decent punt. Of course there is still some poor sentiment around UK banks and the UK's failing growth rate is a drag but even so..... Let's get those share bought back, hope the Q2 numbers exceed consensus and surely at some stage....... All IMHO of course.

If BARC need to "restate" 2021 profits in the US as a result of the overselling then it's difficult to see how Venkat can distance himself from that? He was captain of the ship when those numbers were posted so he and the CFO are culpable. If the regulators conclude "honest mistake" then they will breath a sigh of relief but If it's deemed as something more sinister then Venkat, and others may have to "step down"? If 2021 Profits do need to be restated then share holder returns MAY have to be reviewed which may be part of the reason for delaying the buy back? I really don't know enough about the rules or guidance on this but perhaps some others on here do? I guess the key then is how quickly the regulators pass judgement. Q2 is marching on! All IMHO of course.

I would agree. Bureaucracy in African countries can be an absolute nightmare and it's not unusual for things to grind on as there are always lots of various "interests" that need to be satisfied. If it was a straight "no" then its fair to suggest we would know by now.

CC, blimey, that's an interesting perspective on crypto. Can't argue with it if I'm honest. Some people have done really well with crypto but the alarm bells for me started when Meta failed to get their crypto launched as they tried to do it with the regulators..... and gave up. I don't hold any as I believe it makes sub prime backed CDS look like gold IMO. Lot's pf people have a different view of course but a mate of mine who has been mining for a few years now sold off his crypto about 12 months ago and he has a better understanding of crypto than I will ever have.

KK, you are right. Nothing to do here aside from develop the shallows, comply with licence requirements and grow the output as quickly as is practicable...... oh, and sell/scrap/sink the boat! Five weeks since the stinker so we should be due an operational update?

POO looking like it has staying power over $100 and as every month goes by we should be over delivering on the recovery plan? Kenya's important for 2022 as there is a significant write-down if it falls through so here's hoping they get it over the line. The 75% hedge drops to 50% next year and, is it just me, or is this year racing by?

Not sounding like anything is immanent? There's a hefty write-down if this doesn't come off so its positive that the process is still underway. If it was a flat no I suspect we would know by now?

KK, yeh, I think you are right. Stories that crypto is being used by organised crime and various nations for sanctions busting point to an increasing case for regulation. I believe crypto may trigger the next financial meltdown which won't help any of us?

House prices never seem to fall that far but the zero interest rate bubble had to burst at some stage. I don't understand these markets. We have profitable UK banks trading at P/E's from 4 to 6 and 40% of NAV and pundits in the US tipping stock because the P/E has dropped into the 30's and recommending crypto as a hedge against inflation? Beats me when the markets should be moving towards value IMO.

Very quiet again here. We must be due for Clive to drop something.... or maybe they are waiting for the YE numbers? CPC went back to full flow on 26th April so are we back to a CPC blend price? Volumes have been through the floor of late so we need something to stimulate interest.

The geopolitical mess grinds on which is still a dampener on us. Russia making more "N" word threats again today but as the Finnish President said yesterday, Putin has brought this on himself. The rhetoric is dangerous but any threats about a conventional military response from Russia against NATO look like noise. This war is starting to stagnate and could well drag on, so for companies like CASP it's about managing what look like becoming long term/permanent changes in the oil markets? 2.7p or so is starting to look like a floor here.... until we get some news at least.

GLA

Yep. Could be into crypto. Bitcoin has been in free fall.

KK, Good and fair asks. It's ridiculous that people on here are having to do research and seek confirmation from others to get their heads around information that should be clear to shareholders and investors looking at CASP as an opportunity. I've lost count of the number of PI's who have walked away from here frustrated to the max with ongoing failure. I didn't invest here for a roller coaster ride. As you point out a time based and achievable operational schedule is badly needed alongside ongoing evidence that they are making progress against that schedule. It's wack a mole at the moment especially with the deeps. I thought they had turned a corner back in December last year but it was just another dead end. It will be interesting to see if you get some sort of feedback on your suggestions. Let's face it what you have asked for are things any well managed business would be doing without being asked.

Cheers H. As bail says, not much to get excited about.

Wouldn't any of this be nice? I, for one, have considered exiting my position here on many occasions. Not because there is no potential here, but because they don't seem capable of realising it. I think after 14 years that's fair? I stick around because the core business is worth more than the present SP IMO. In fact I would value the licences alone as having an asset value per share of more than the present SP.

If they want to sell the business then continued failure with the deeps means that any potential suitors would probably discount any value that might be attached to them? However, even this would leave us with a realistic value well above the present SP. I would have thought that anyone seriously considering buying CASP would believe they could do more with it than the present management team have managed. There are however some potential blockers. Urals oil pricing, Kazakh corruption and local pricing would be red flags for many.

I've not been here for the entire 14 year period but in and out over 10. My holding has flexed from well into 7 figures down to the hundreds of thousands which is where I am now. The last RNS was a real stinker and this board has been very quiet since then as investors have either bailed, reduced their holding, or put their stock into an ISA and shut the lid on the box. Not a great strategy for a company with a stated aim of attracting bigger investors?

For all that I can't help thinking that it might be darkest before.....................

GLA all IMHO

I saw a piece yesterday saying that the pipelines supplying China are maxed out and the transport infrastructure to supply India is also under pressure as the shippers don't want to get branded as sanctions busters.
CPC is also reported as back to full capacity.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Kazakhstans-Crucial-CPC-Pipeline-Is-Back-Online.html
So let's hope that the contagion from Russian oil eases as the CPC must be back to close on 90% Kaz Oil again?
The war in Ukraine is of course dragging on with Putin's ambitions for May 9th now looking more like him crowing about the capture of Mariupol than any sort of total victory for his special operation? More stories coming out about discontent among Russia's elite. He has, without doubt overplayed his hand so here's hoping for peace but also staying prepared for him to go for a full mobilisation. He says he won't do that but then again truth from Russia during this operation has been all but non-existent.
After 14 years of jam tomorrow I'm looking for some evidence that CASP can deliver for us. We were at 10p back in the FK days and the SP, as well as most of the PI population, have gone backwards since then. I don't believe more of the same is the best way forward. All IMHO of course.

Yeh. Les would have advertised it at £2.20 with free postage, accepted an offer for £1.50 and made a £20K loss on the deal after he shipped it to Australia and paid legal costs.

I'd like to be cheered up by all this but the picture is not where we would like it to be for the moment. Not sure how the EU decision will impact Kaz oil which seems to be classified as Urals at this time? The reality of Urals pricing is that it is been hovering around the mid $70's over recent weeks. We have tanker costs and I'm assuming that there is some cost associated with pipeline costs/commission? This applies to around 60-70% of output with the rest selling at around $20 which, when you take a fully costed approach, is probably a small loss. Add to this the reality that the boat is also a loss maker. It's taken 14 years or so to deliver 2300 or so BOPD all from shallow's and yet we have continued investing in deeps wells which have not yet delivered any return. What a fall back from the happy place we had in late December 21 when it looked like we had turned a corner! So why haven't I bailed? Well I believe there is still a core business here that works. I believe the world needs Kazakh oil production to grow which is not going to happen if it keeps selling at Brent minus $30. Let's get real here. I would like to see CASP winding it's costs down until the geopolitical situation improves. Hold onto it's cash reserves for the rainy days we have coming. Sell/Scrap the boat and focus on a scaled back investment plan around the shallow's and stay away from anything deep that is not required to meet licence conditions. 3500BOPD by EO 22 would look great to me. Some of this is in the plan of course but there is still talk about re-drilling A5 and interesting opportunities for the boat which is all a waste of time and money IMO. This is survival mode + till the Urals price issue is resolved not business as usual. Clive told us last year than any drop in oil prices below a certain level ($54 I think?) would require additional financing. Back then the CPC blend price was Brent minus a couple of dollars so that number may be $85 or so now? At $108 we are still good but it's not a money fest but it can still deliver solid, reliable returns if the costs are well managed. The company has survived storms in the past. It can get through this and can deliver a shareholder return in 2022 if it stops dreaming and makes the tough calls that it needs to deliver in the difficult environment that 2022 is chucking our way. Come on Clive, let's be avin it!

The market values a strong BOD so you would have to conclude there is not much faith in ours? Too many mistakes and all the promises about tackling bonus culture since about 2014/15 have come to nothing. The overselling fiasco was a classic example of a lack of strong leadership IMO. Venkat gave the impression he was hiding away during April and that fuelled speculation that the situation was worse than reported. I welcome the strong results but the BOD need to share the benefits of strong performance with share holders not just leave them holding the baby when things go wrong. I don't think any of this will change until the BOD gets shaken up. All IMHO of course.

And again this morning. Becoming a habit. Have to say I thought the Q1 statements here and BARC would have given us some sort of lift. As you say this is getting predictable.

I'm not sure a tactical Nuke would be catastrophic but it would represent a major escalation. Strategic Nukes are what we need to avoid but let's hope it doesn't come to that! I watched a docu a couple of weeks ago that covered the false flag attack on a German radio station to justify the invasion of Poland in 1939. The parallels with the attack on Moldova brought it back to mind. I hope when Putin celebrates V day on May 9th he remembers the sacrifice of the allied merchant seamen that gave their lives to supply Russia with tanks, planes and other equipment on the North Atlantic convoys when Russia was the victim of aggression. I doubt it! Sadly there are only signs of further escalation in this conflict at the moment. Believe me when I say the risks to my portfolio are the least of my concerns.

The 75% hedge runs to May 2023 and then it's 50% till May 2024 from memory. That of course only applies to the oil in the contract. Any additional volume is un-hedged so Tullow can do as they wish with it?