RE: News5 Apr 2024 22:07
Always read the fine print, that's where the unpalatable facts are
70 bopd, peak gauge flow rate, not a daily actual rate, but a rate that if it continued all day would deliver 70 barrels to the stock tank. But if you only flow it for an hour in a day, that's only 2.92 barrels in the tank for the day
What rational fair minded analyst, would use a one off momentary peak flow rate, when an average over several days is available. Its like timing a 100m sprinter and calculating the 5000 meter time by multiplying that. No best run a few laps and then calculate off the steady sustainable pace, in the Hickory 1 USFS, that would be the average of 42 bopd
A one off flow is subject to far too many variables, has a steady flow and pressure been established ??
Far to many good looking flow tests are created by starting at a high pressure, then running down to low pressure, so capturing unsustainable flow rates well above the steady state of a production well.
Obviously this test did not have a steady state, as can be seen in the widely variable top hole pressures,(2,000 to 420psig.) and choke settings (8/64ths to 42/64ths is huge variance)
42 bopd it is then, but wait there is another major problem, despite claiming a 42 bopd average for the 88hrs of natural flowback, the total amount of oil in the day tank over the entire flowback only reached 24.8 barrels, I quote “A total volume during the flow back period following establishment of oil cut of 24.8 stk bbls of oil recovered following establishment of oil rates”
If this is correct, and why would it not be, 88e reported it after all. Investors have emailed for confirmation, but have not had an answer, so lets assume it is correct. (Once aware it would be so easy and prudent for 88e, to correct this number if it is an error.)
Where does that leave it, total oil produced of 24.8 barrels, and a produced gas flow of “A total of 1.45mmscf of gas and NGL’s were recovered from the Upper SFS test”
That's a gas oil ratio of 1,450,000scf /24.8 bbl, a very gassy uneconomic1 barrel per ~58500scf of gas.
As a reference PANRs worst production result was 12000 to 14000 scf/barrel at the Alkaid 2 long term test of the Zone of interest, (some compare to a SFS). Then a much better 3000 to 4000scf/barrel in the SMDB reservoir at Alkaid 2
Now back to the 24.8 barrels of oil captured over 111 hrs, that's 4.625 days, so its an average of 5.4 bopd, not the mysterious 42 bopd in the headlines. That would be a complete failure in anyone's book, even Next Investors put under 50 bopd as the bear case.
Consider where 5.4 bopd of very high GOR oil fits in the economic calculation
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