RE: RNS TODAY.13 Nov 2025 22:14
Some investors had been getting anxious for an update to confirm Dubhe 1 has successfully moved into flowback, so confirming, the plugs have been drilled out, production tubing installed, and temporary flowback facilities commissioned.
The latest RNS gives that and a little more, so those risks and time required for execution have passed without incident
Good news, I would have thought.
Further to that, PANR confirms flowback has recovered 20% of the injected frac water (inj 214k bbls), and that frac water is “overwhelmingly dominated by previously injected stimulation fluids.”
So in effect minimal reservoir fluids are being produced to the surface yet, as is the normal case in cleanup.
Yet even with this minimal reservoir flow, PANR states “steady gas production and intermittent production of light oil” is occurring.
What is also apparent is the reservoir is in drive, with some ~43000 barrels having been recovered in arguably 14 days. Initially some of that is overpressure induced by the injection of frac water, but at 43k barrels, the reservoir is driving strongly with an average of ~3000 bpd, so reservoir fluids and gas are now coming from the reservoir to displace the frac water but are still within the fracture matrix.
As the frac water displaces, more reservoir fluids will begin the tortuous journey to the surface separation facilities
So at this point, we know the reservoir is delivering to the fracture matrix, and not much of it has reached the surface yet, but some mobile gas and oil has despite the frac water holding it back as it flushes out
Step 1 of the cleanup up is around halfway done, so as most already knew, patience is still required before a more representative flow is achieved at around 40% frac water recovery, at which time reservoir fluids should start to dominate frac water recovery
Of note, PANR set out to integrate the learnings of Alkaid 2 ZOI and Alkaid 2 SMDB stimulations, where 20% frac efficiency in the ZOI was advanced to 50% in the SMDB flow test. A target of 50% in Dubhe 1 seems reasonable to expect, which means a larger fracture matrix that should flow better, but may take longer to clean up than Alkaid 2 with its significantly lesser matrix
With the confirmation of “steady gas production,” it also supports the flare sightings and satellite hot spots that started to intermittently appear in the right place at the right time, as gas will definitely need to be flared. Flare sightings will remain dependent on the somewhat rare good visibility conditions, as at 27 miles distant, it needs all ducks lined up to be visible on the far horizon
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