Goldplat CEO Werner Klingenberg discusses dividend policy, share buybacks and the Kilimenpesa sale. Watch the full video here.
Scepticism is understandable in oil stocks, investors are flooded with positive PR by explorers. Working out which ones are genuine is the hard part. Most will fail, some will pay handsomely, risk reward go hand in hand.
PANR are showing good form, predrill expectations were set, and then exceeded by the actual drill data. Then further backed up by the independent third party VAS data. Derisking and growing the resource numbers at the same time, moves in favour of genuine
Apologies there is an error in the post, corrected below
Buzzthomas 13.04 Can I suggest you read the Canaccord valuation, currently at the 58.8p share price. Oil in the ground is valued at 34 US cents per barrel. When the share price gets to 172 pence, it will still only value the oil at 100 US cents per barrel in the ground.
Buzzthomas 13.04 Can I suggest you read the Canaccord valuation, currently at the 58.8p share price. Oil in the ground is valued at 34 pence per barrel. When the share price gets to 172 pence, it will still only value the oil at 100 pence per barrel in the ground.
In my view a case is developing for Alkaid as a marketable parcel, this could provide an option to farmout and source capital for Talitha, at low dilution.
PANR have stated that $50 m would test Talitha, drill another well and test at Alkaid, plus drill Theta West.
With a proportion of SMD B now shown to be on Alkaid ground, a percentage of the 404mmbo, can also be added to the current 76.5 mmbo of IER contingent resource.
76.5 mmbo has a NPV of $795 m, if 100mmbo of SMD B can be included in the Alkaid numbers, it will make a compelling stand alone project, given its all year access, location on the Dalton highway and proximity to TAPs
To be clear, the US $ 795 million value is for the Alkaid anomaly alone, Lee Keeliing estimates it at 76.5 mmbo. Which by my calculation is $10.39/barrel. If my guestimate is anywhere close at 100 mmbo, a further $1039 million can be added, giving Alkaid a NPV 10 project value of US $1834 million. Raising against a project of that scale looks achievable.
This is the updated number PANR quote after the drilling costs reduced by 33% at Talitha, Previous to this it was $595m. Additionally there has been no upwards revision on this $795m, to account for the increased oil price, at the time of the $595m it was $55/barrel
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Oh Ddraig, I am well aware, you do not believe, people should be allowed, to see the other side of things, but surely that is their choice not yours. Feel free to exercise your right, to your point of view.
Yes I am invested in PANR currently and not in 88e, it is my opinion, it is a much better investment.
By all means keep your investment here.
My point is the samples need to be collected and sealed, within minutes of arrival at surface, to preserve the internal porosity contents. As such it is an integral part of the plan, and subject to error if not given appropriate care.
I see more obfuscation than positives here, the only definitive progress is the 13 sidewall core trim results. At 5 out of 13 having confirmed the presence of hydrocarbons, and a presence means any trace, not necessarily viable, the remaining 8 have none.
It is not what you would expect of reservoir that has a good seal, effectively if the regional seal is good hydrocarbons will be detected from there down. It leaves the likelihood that the detected hydrocarbons are in smaller local traps, which are unlikely to be commercial in the remotes of Alaska.
Phase two is upcoming, but with an objective defined as.
“This is targeted at enhancing understanding of the likely quality of the oil as well as migration pathways, which is critical for understanding regional implications on prospectivity across Project Peregrine.”
Migration pathways, sounds more like, where has the oil gone, because we have only found residual patches here. Lets hope it is more effectively trapped elsewhere on the lease block.
VAS results are also very slow coming out, at Talitha (PANR) a well relatively close by, it was at target depth on 15/2/21 and the VAS report was public by 20/04/21 (8 weeks). For reference, every sample (416) had oil in 3700 feet of strata below the DkrD shale.
Merlin reached target depth 29/03/21 and the results are still pending 15 weeks later, why so slow.
I expect there may be technical problems, sampling for VAS analysis is time and technique critical.
88e only mentioned VAS on 27/04/21 long after drilling stopped, samples can only be taken whilst drilling, as the chips are recovered from the circulating drilling mud.
From what is currently known, this remains a mediocre result, that is more likely, to help establish the next drill target, than announce a commercial discovery at Merlin
Time will tell.
Some numbers to play with, now that the basin floor fan has been quantified at 1.41 billion barrels of likely contingent recoverable resource
In the copied below Kuparuk modelling 72% of the recoverable oil is produced, also note
Kuparuk is deeper than the BFF, so likely a little more costly to produce, the oil price is now higher again and drilling costs are lower by 33%. All in the $10 looks conservative now.
1,410,000,000 x .72 = 1,015,200,000 x 10 = US $ 10,152,000,000 / 741m fully diluted shares = $13.70 / share
NPV 10 has a roughly double value to share price, so left with $ 6.85 per share for Theta West primary recovery alone. Secondary recovery should double this number.
Copied from the 8/3/21 Operational update on Talitha A
On 13 October, 2020 Pantheon announced that the internal estimate of prospective resource potential at Talitha was 1.4 billion barrels of oil in place and 341 million barrels of recoverable oil in the Kuparuk Formation alone and based on conceptual development plans this oil had an NPV10 of $6 per barrel based upon the oil pricing at that time. Simply adjusting the same model(2) for today's oil price of $69.36 (held flat) and making no other changes, that NPV10 increases to over $10 per barrel.
(2) As announced on 13 October, 2020, the Company estimated the Kuparuk to contain 1.4 billion barrels of oil in place and a Prospective Resource (Recoverable) of 341 million barrels as a most likely case. It modelled an illustrative development plan for the Kuparuk with 62 producing wells, exploiting 247 MMBO of this resource
PANR does trade in the US under the OTC ticker PTHRF, The volume is tiny but rising of late.
I keep a loose eye on this site
Plenty of really good content on the sub reddits
With Canaccord updating their price target, to £1.15 on account of the revised forward curve oil pricing. It prompts a revisit on how it is derived.
Reading the report, it is purely based on Alkaid, and the Shelf margin deltaic, Theta West, and the other targets, are completely excluded from the target price calculation. It is very strange way to value a company, especially since Theta West, has 1.41 billion barrels of prospective resource, that PANR argues, could be considered contingent resource.
I guess it will come later after this report has been digested, and we are ready to consider an additional resource, 372% larger than the one this Target price is based on.
Back to the basics on Alkaid. Independent expert reports by Lee Keeling and Associates gives a 2C contingent resource of 76.5 mmbo for Alkaid (23/01/20) and a further prospective resource of 302 mmbo for the Talitha SMD (25/09/20). All up 378.5 mmbo of combined mixed resources have justified the £1.15 target price.
It is important to note, there are two effectively separate projects, Alkaid and Talitha, the SMD at Talitha, is not the same as the much deeper Alkaid anomaly, that is the basis of the 76.5mmbo of contingent resource.
Having now drilled Talitha, the data interpretation so far, shows a very different picture of the Talitha SMD. It now extends into the Alkaid project acreage, as such this will add to the Alkaid resource. See 56 minutes into the sharetalk presentation http://www.pantheonresources.com/index.php where it cycles between before and after Talitha data capture, all of the shift is new to Alkaid.
Of further note to the Talitha SMD IER is it only includes 20600 of the 44373 acres in the project.
In summary, from the new data there is considerable upside in these two independent resource estimates, which are the basis of Canaccords Target price calculation.
PANR are working on these, and given the verbal assurance in the presentation “ not 1 month, not 2 months” Anytime after two months, its due, and two months have already passed. I am of the opinion, PANR will be waiting on completion of this data integration, before pushing hard on the farm out levers. They need to be confident on the big ticket items before setting expectations.
Canaccords Target price and rating
Our risked NPV10 target price remains unchanged at 100p, based only on independently determined resource estimates for a subset of Pantheon's overall potential. While we see upside potential considerably in excess of our target price, we also recognise the risks and so we maintain our Speculative BUY rating.
TP basis - Alkaid 2C+Talitha SMD net unrisked p/shr 219p
Having asked a question elsewhere, on the sample selection logic, and receiving a credible response. I though others would also find it interesting. My take is now modified, the next 13 samples will tell more than the first 5.
Selecting the intervals to be cored is actually done on purpose at the well site after open hole logging. The geologist / log analyst / petrophysicist always choses the good, the bad, and the ugly so that they can obtain exact reservoir physical parameters and calibrate the log data. Tight, low porosity rock have different Log resistivity and density porosity from the good oil saturated rock and sometimes are difficult to differentiate. Also, some intervals may contain 100% water - they really need to know that! AND - some samples may only contain natural gas and will not show oil indicators and fluorescence - the rock would look hydrocarbon dead. The choice to obtain a lab "quick look" at 5 samples allows the petrophysicist and the log analyst to jump start, as it were, the entire geological / petrophysical model. So - they can now see on the logs the good, the bad, and the ugly with confidence.
The other 13 samples had good oil saturation and as such will receive the special "Dean Stark" Lab process. This will focus on and define the "oil reservoirs."
The important bits are in the details section, and the numbers within.
48 sidewall cores have been cut in the Merlin well
18 were specifically chosen to have trims taken and analysed, presumably the best of them
5 were from untested zones where hydrocarbons had been observed during drilling
2 confirming the presence of hydrocarbons. which inverts to 3 samples had no hydrocarbons.
13 samples to come, hopefully a better ratio of success in them
It is a concern that the data released so far does not cover gross to net pay. A few feet of productive sands within a play, will not be commercial. The sooner this comes out the better, as for now it is looking distinctly mediocre.
Answers a few questions
Pantheon leaders in late May announced an oil discovery near the Dalton Highway that they believe is greater than 1 billion recoverable barrels. They said in a corporate statement responding to questions about the tax credits that Pantheon did not purchase Great Bear’s credits or the associated debt, noting that Pantheon’s work has been done after the program ended.
However, Great Bear and its lender are large shareholders of Pantheon and the company’s ability to raise money for ongoing work is “significantly compromised by the debt that remains outstanding due to the failure of the state to repurchase the eligible tax credits,” according to the Pantheon statement.
It’s unknown how much Great Bear is owed.
Yes it is an interesting development, and at such a low discount. I have 88e only losing 2.1c in the dollar.(18.7/19.1) It does beg the question, why did the large US oil and gas company offer such good terms ? Cant see them losing money on it, so they must have a means to monetise quickly or profitable, before the finance cost eats the 2.1% margin.
From there the consequence to Farallon is next, can they do a similar deal with their X Great bear tax credits, and will it change their rights or attitude to GB shares.
Just speculation from here as we don't know the deal structure. Presuming Farallon took GB tax credits and an interest in GB shares, in exchange for repaying GB debt. I would expect there to be an annual repayment schedule, met by either payout of tax credits by the Alaskan State and or share sales.
If so, sale of Alaskan tax credits in volume, negates the need for share sales to meet the annual repayment target to Farallon.
I stress again pure speculation, but possible.
8.46 I cant follow the first piece of logic ? Cap raise at 31p, current price ~29.5p. How does that become 25% down?
Very happy with the choice to maintain 100% for the minor dilution, as I believe PANR have a result here.
We differ on the flow question, VAS shows a flow result, chip by chip throughout the 3700 ft. Waiting for a full flow test and buying on that is one option, but at what price.
VAS results provided sufficient derisk for me.
With the resource update on the SMD due soon ('not one month, not two months" now in the 3rd month ) there is very likely to be positive news flow.
PANR covered potential capital pathways in the April presentation @ 1hr 31 minutes, below is a transcription for those that are interested.
Somebody with laser focus, asked us the question on funding again. What would our preferred method of funding be, for the company? I think the answer is all options are open.
Look look this is a bugbear of mine, I get this question all the time. The AIM market in particular, and other junior markets are frightened of equity raisings.
Look, we have never ever, done a deeply discounted equity raising, we always take the route, that is the lowest dilution to the company.
Last November we raised 30 million dollars. It came at, I think it was about 15 or 16% dilution from memory, to the company, in equity value, and it allowed us to maintain a 100% working interest in this play,
And you guys saw, what we can see in terms of the size of of that play, the emergence into this Theta West project, and so on and so forth. We have always done the right thing.
So the answer is we will speak to farm out companies, we will, chase terms we think are right for us. We will partner when it suits us, and matches our criteria, not just any partner.
It's not just the cheque book, we can get money, it's about getting the right money, and the right partner.
Cheers Alaric, The Baker Hughes report is also worth another visit, I copied in the executive summary below, to wet the appetite of potential readers.
Petroleum System: Talitha A has drilled into a very substantial and significant petroleum system
as measured by a length of 3,700’ of the borehole that produced oil bearing cuttings in the zone
from 6,750’ to 10,455’ (TD) measured depths. This zone almost certainly extends deeper than
the current TD of 10,455’. It is AHS’s experience that the column length of cuttings containing
oil is a highly reliable indicator of petroleum system significance. The continuous 3,700’ column
length of oil-bearing cuttings is a more reliable measure of petroleum system significance than is
the amount of oil in any of the cuttings.
The amount of oil in cuttings is very variable due to several variables. Good quality reservoir
rocks tend to lose much more oil and gas from their cuttings than do tight rocks during drilling,
transport to the surface, sample preparation, and storage. More oil is lost from water wetting
than from oil wetting reservoirs. More volatile oils are lost more readily than heavier oils. More
oil is lost from PDC bit cuttings than from rock bit cuttings. More oil is lost from rock bit cuttings
than from core. More oil is lost using OBM than WBM mud. More oil is lost from lab loaded
cuttings than from sealed at well cuttings. So, the preservation of oil in drill cuttings depends on
the quality of the rock, the quality of the oil, the drilling technology employed, and whether the
cuttings are sealed immediately after reaching the surface. In short, the total amount of oil in
any one cuttings sample is not a good measure of petroleum system strength. That all being
said, many of the Talitha A cuttings hold large amounts of oil.
To summarize these thoughts, an insignificant petroleum system cannot leave an uninterrupted
continuous trace of 3,700’ of oil-bearing cuttings. This requires a large amount of oil to have
been generated, expelled, and migrated through the drilled section and the surrounding area.
It is my best opinion that the 3,700’ continuous column of oil-bearing cuttings, which almost
certainly continues deeper than TD, is a testament to Talitha A drilling a world-class petroleum