Member Info for Olderwiser

Something's awry here Bricks, it implies the current market cap is based on ~$5/barrel, whilst the current SP implies closer to 24 US cents per barrel

"Company Ticker Share Price (Oct 2025) Market Cap Enterprise Value $/BOE (Implied)

Pantheon (PANR) AIM:PANR 29.25 GBp (~$0.37) ~$493M ~$478M ~$5/barrel"

A quick cherry pick of the latest presentation, indicates flow back begins before the end of October. More important than the timeline, the indicators of success are strong

Meanwhile flow back begins in the next few days,("flow testing to

commence in October 2025") frac water first, then what we have all been waiting for, oil, oil and more oil

"Recently drilled a long lateral with flow testing to

commence in October 2025 to refine fluid characteristics

and production performance in the main target zone"

https://www.pantheonresources.com/index.php/investors/presentations/717-investor-presentation-october-2025/file

"Dubhe-1 Well Informing Ahpun Final Investment Decision: Recently

drilled, with initial results exceeding expectations of rock quality. Flow testing in 4Q 2025 for validation of production characteristics

Successfully drilled to full depth and gathered extensive

data, confirming a much thicker total oil pay than expected

and strengthening confidence in the project

Dubhe-1 Well Informing Ahpun Final Investment Decision:

Recently drilled, with initial results exceeding expectations. Flow testing

imminent for validation of production characteristics

Potential ~$8B portfolio valuation(7): ~2.7 billion barrels

of discovered oil equivalent resources(5), across two

projects with defined development pathway(7)

Courtesy of flight on discord, and mlf51 on ADVFN

It is a very brave person that would bet against the pipeline at this stage

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251023911259/en/Glenfarne-Grows-Alaska-LNG-Commercial-Momentum-With-Tokyo-Gas-Agreement

“This agreement validates the strength of Alaska LNG’s commercial offering and the importance of Alaska LNG as a strategically positioned supplier of affordable, clean LNG for U.S. Pacific allies,” said Glenfarne Chief Executive Officer and Founder Brendan Duval. “Tokyo Gas pioneered the LNG industry with their agreement to purchase LNG from Alaska fifty-five years ago and is one of the most respected voices in the industry. We welcome their participation in Alaska LNG.”

Why do you say that Bob, the companies SOI exactly matches the capital raise number, so everything went through as indicated

Bob

There was this in the capital raise only a month ago

Director participation

As part of the Subscription Jeremy Brest has agreed to subscribe for 1,255,088 Subscription Shares totalling $0.425 million.

A comparable timeline for initial results can be extracted from the Alkaid 2 ZOI, where a 5200' multistage stimulation was also employed. Allow 10 days less in Dubhe 1, as the rig is already in place; say 3 weeks till flowback commences, and with one week already passed by. An RNS to say flowback is underway would be likely around the 29th October, with a further 10 days of primarily frac water recovery before reliable oil flow begins. The 8th of November looks like the date, but hey, I am an optimist, and operations have been smooth so far, so will hold a candle for fireworks fuse lit on the 5th November

1. 26/09/22 https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/xpne1qr

Operational Update The Company is pleased to report that the completion and stimulation phase at Alkaid #2 has concluded, and a production packer has been set. Completion equipment is currently being demobilized and preparations are underway for flow testing. The Company will shortly commence commissioning its facilities which were recently increased in capacity in order to handle potential additional production. A workover rig is estimated to arrive to location over the next week to ten days to install production tubing prior to commencing flow testing operations. A significant amount of fluid was introduced into the well during stimulation procedures which will return first during the 'clean-up phase', prior to the subsequent commencement of oil production later in October, if successful.

25/10/22 https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/rm3kn9x

Alkaid #2 - Operational Update Production testing operations at Alkaid #2 have commenced with the well in the clean-up phase and showing positive early indications of oil production from the reservoir. During this clean-up phase, in addition to the fluid production, the strong flow back has yielded frac sand production higher than expected, which is not uncommon in similar completion procedures.

Part 2

In summary

The geological model is holding up to scrutiny by the drill bit

The frac incorporating previous learning and improvements has been successfully implemented.

Flow modelling based on actual flows and geologic data from this reservoir, the SMDB feeds a highly commercial flow model

But there remains some risk in the unknown unknown, to be finally banished by a good flow result in the near future

Part 1

Having now successfully completed and derisked the engineering tasks, drilling and stimulation, next comes consideration of the flow test result

What is known

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/meetings/investor-update-80

"Question 12:

What reservoir qualities have you encountered to date?

Logs indicate reservoir qualities (e.g. porosities, saturations and interpreted permeabilities) are consistent with Pipeline State-1 and Company (and SLB) pre-drill modeling. There is no indication that fluid properties, including the composition of the associated gas are any different than elsewhere in the Ahpun field. Flowing oil, gas and water together is expected, as in prior wells."

I am particularly pleased to see “and Company (and SLB) pre-drill modeling”, as this affirms the models used are still on track, the pre drill geologic interpretation, has borne out post drill data coming in.

Flows from both the Alkaid 2 ZOI reservoir and subsequent Alkaid 2 SMDB tests have proven mobile oil flow. So Dubhe 1, with its geologic model standing strong, should also flow

In looking back to the Alkaid 2, 5200' multistage stimulation, analysis of post flow results concluded that frac efficiency was 20%. In this test at IP30 a flow rate of 180 bopd and 325 bpd of NGL s was recorded. A doubling of that frac efficiency to 40% would see approximately a doubling of those flows. We know that this is quite achievable, as the Alkaid 2 SMDB vertical stimulation, where a more modern completion was used, achieved 50% frac efficiency.

Alkaid 2 ZOI fracture was the learning experience, from which Alkaid 2 SMDB benefited, as is the normal case in field development, where after the learning curve, 80% frac efficiency is the target

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/xqlk1kr

As in my earlier post, PANR has modelled the SMDB reservoir at 4000bpd of marketable liquids in a full 10000ft horizontal, so investors need to halve that in a 5000ft horizontal, and then roughly halve that again to account for the oil (bopd) v NGLs split. Say 1000bopd would be a good match to the model, as only oil will be actually captured in the flow test. NGLs are captured only after chilling equipment is in place, so it is unlikely in test mode, however these can be accurately calculated from gas flow and composition

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/x2vj07w

Pantheon has provided an illustrative model based on Company estimates of the Ahpun topset type well performance. This results in an IP30 of 4,000 bpd of marketable liquids, with a first year average production rate of 2,000 bpd, and estimated ultimate recovery of 2 million barrels ("mmbl") of marketable liquids per well. This is based on the development well design of 10,000 feet lateral length, improved frac design, and recognising the improved reservoir and fluid characteristics.

Looking back on the last long term production test, in Alkaid 2, the communication is reasonably consistent with that of the Dubhe 1 multistage stimulation and long term flow test

Agreed it is not precise, but that is reasonable, as some allowance for gains and slippage to planned timeline is prudent in communications

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/x2ljzlr

6/9/22

Operations update - Alkaid #2

The Nabors 105 rig, used to drill the Alkaid #2 well has been fully demobilised, and wireline and completion equipment is now on location where completion operations have commenced. The well will be perforated, stimulated and plugged off in sections, prior to the commencement of flow testing, anticipated in early October. The Company looks forward to advising shareholders of flow test results in due course.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/xpne1qr

26/9/22

Operational Update

The Company is pleased to report that the completion and stimulation phase at Alkaid #2 has concluded, and a production packer has been set. Completion equipment is currently being demobilized and preparations are underway for flow testing. The Company will shortly commence commissioning its facilities which were recently increased in capacity in order to handle potential additional production. A workover rig is estimated to arrive to location over the next week to ten days to install production tubing prior to commencing flow testing operations. A significant amount of fluid was introduced into the well during stimulation procedures which will return first during the 'clean-up phase', prior to the subsequent commencement of oil production later in October, if successful.

Water cut is the amount of water compared to the amount of oil, e.g., 90 barrels of water for every 10 barrels of oil

In this case it was early in the flowback while frack water was still returning

Later on this reduces, but formation water will still be present accompanying the oil

To answer oil flow is reported as a headline figure, the water is secondary,

Sean1151

This is very different, in Megrez 1, a substantial oil rich column was encountered across multiple reservoirs, with ~50% oil saturation in testing, but it had not been flow tested in any other location. So that was the risk, all the data pointed to a great flow test result, but there was no prior proof of flow

I expect Megrez 1 will be revisited, in the future, when inexpensive facilities are in place to process the produced water, and waste gas is available for stimulation

In Dubhe 1, it has been flow tested within the same reservoir, the SMDB Dubhe 1 target, is a component of the Ahpun field. The data points to a great flow result, and there is prior proof of oil flow, in the ALK 2 SMDB test.

Even using the 45bopd average over the 5 days of oil recovery, and considering this was a single stage fracture stimulation in 200 ft of gross reservoir height, compared to the scale up of a 25 stage fracture in 565 ft of gross reservoir height in the Dubhe 1H, simple scaling of the earlier test gives a great result.

The risk here is on how much oil flows, and its properties, in this new and arguably better section of the same reservoir

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/xqlk1kr

“During the flow test, after recovery of approximately 60% of the frac fluids, the oil rate (separator liquids) ranged from more than 100 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") to 30 bopd (averaging 45 bopd over the 5 days during which oil was recovered). Water cuts were 90% initially but declined over time as a larger share of the frac fluids was recovered. As highlighted before the operation, the flow rates themselves were not expected to be material because the objective was to limit drawdown in the initial flow back. However, the actual flow rates were substantially better than prognosed, given the conservative approach to production in order to limit gas flashing in the reservoir and ensure the best quality PVT samples, which bodes well for future SMD development in the Ahpun Field.”

Part 3

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/x2vj07w

Pantheon has provided an illustrative model, based on Company estimates, of the Ahpun topset type well performance. This results in an IP30 of 4,000 bpd of marketable liquids, with a first year average production rate of 2,000 bpd, and estimated ultimate recovery of 2 million barrels ("mmbl") of marketable liquids per well. This is based on the development well design of 10,000 feet lateral length, improved frac design, and recognising the improved reservoir and fluid characteristics.

Pulling all of the jumble together

Clear success is over 866 barrels of blended oil, Cond/NGLs per day

Of this expect a show of 468 barrels of oil, and 398 bbls Cond/NGLs (note only oil will be initially recovered in flow testing, so 468 is a clear success)

Condensate and NGLS count as barrels of oil at a 80 to 90% value range

Alkaid 2 ZOI reservoir produced 180bopd and 325 bpd of Condensate/NGLs at IP30

Dubhe 1 is modeled to produce, 1080 bopd and 940 bpd of Condensate/NGLs, from the SMDB reservoir at IP30, richer in oil yield

Dubhe is expected to have, a better measured GOR of ~25% of that, measured in the long term ZOI flow test

Even the earlier upper success range, of 866 bpd including Cond/NGLs, is dwarfed by the 2000 bpd, combined oil and Cond/NGL estimate

Part 2

Now move forward to the ALK 2 flow test of the SMDB reservoir.

These results are from the SMDB reservoir, in a single stage fracked vertical flow test, and further conducted PVT ananlysis to determine the gas to oil ratio.

Final analysis of this result showed in the CGA contingent resource estimate volumes, and PANRs own Ahpun well estimate, of IP30 of 4,000 bpd of marketable liquids, for a full 10000” development well

Bear in mind Dubhe 1 is 5200' which brings this back to ~2000 bpd, which is estimated by CGA to be in ratio/% oil 54%, condensate +NGLs 46%

So if Dubhe 1 flows to estimate, the “oil” flow will be 1080bopd and 920 bpd of Cond/NGLs at IP30, clear day light above, the 180bopd and 325 bpd of Cond/NGLs achieved in the Alkaid 2 ZOI reservoir. A test that even after discounting back, by 10% (505 -10% = 455) to allow for the lower blended barrel price, was very close to the lower success bar of 520 bopd

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/r7p121r

(ii) Multiple fluid samples were gathered indicating a measured gas oil ratio ("GOR") of 3,000 – 4,000 standard cubic feet per barrel ("scf/bbl") and an API gravity of 35-36o. This compares to 12,000 - 13,000 scf/bbl measured in the deeper Alkaid ZOI. This indicates success in limiting pressure drawdown and avoiding flashing gas in the reservoir.

The Company will have GeoMark conduct recombination analysis on the recovered fluids from this SMD test, which will provide a comparison to the calculated GOR range for the Alkaid ZOI of 2,000 - 3,000 scf/bbl.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/x2vj07w

GeoMark's pressure-volume-temperature ("PVT") analysis of the fluid samples gathered during the test resulted in a calculated gas oil ratio ("GOR") for the Ahpun topset of 1,012 standard cubic feet per barrel of oil ("scf/bbl"), materially less than the calculated 2,000-3,000 scf/bbl which was previously reported for the Alkaid ZOI. As well as the reduced GOR, GeoMark reported oil gravity at the outlet of the separator of 35o API for the Ahpun topset, with a liquids yield of 162 barrels of per million cubic feet ("bbls/mmcf"). This is a much richer stream than the 42o API oil with 98 bbls1/mmcf produced from the Alkaid ZOI

Part 1

For those that have forgotten or are new to PANR

In the previous Alkaid 2 ZOI reservoir horizontal frack, and long term flow test, PANR have already given guidance on what a successful flow test looks like

Good success was defined as 150 bbls/1000' of horizontal, so in the 5200' drilled, a figure of 780 bbls

Note this is the higher success number, 100 bbls was the lower success, as shown in this presentation.

https://youtu.be/XNJDY-byL44?t=4186

At 1:09:50, the graphic shows an illustrative development well with “High IIRs even as low as 600bpd”

Pantheon Resources (AIM: PANR) Shareholder Presentation and Q&A session 26th April 2022

https://youtu.be/XNJDY-byL44?t=4661

Michael Duncan VP of Operations

“I cannot wait to show this concept, we forecasted about 150 barrels of oil per day for every thousand feet of completed horizontal. Now I want to stress that, that's not what we need, we can make it work less than that, with significantly less than that”

1:18:05

In summary, the generic success numbers, are already out there from the previous presentations, equal or above 780bbls from Dubhe 1 is a clean win

Now for a bit more refinment, barrels in Dubhe will consist of oil, condensate and NGLs, as shown in the Alkaid 2 ZOI results, which as a blend will sell at ~90% of Alaska North Slope crude, so true comparison needs to factor this in at another 11% to the 780, giving 866bbls of blended hdrocarbon liquids (bpd) as the new clean win target

In the Alkaid 2 long term test the 505bbls at IP30, broke down as 180bbls of oil, plus 325bbls of condensate and NGLs, pretty much matching the lower success case. Focus on the ratio % here 35.6% oil and 64.4% Condensate + NGLs

Sharing my post from the troll site

Painting great risk is the task of the dishonest trolls, to convince the mug punter that minor is major

Dubhe 1 has at this stage mitigated most of the risk, so only minor risk remains

Is the reservoir there in sufficient volume, Tick.

Is it the right rock, Tick

Does it have oil, Tick.

Drilling risk, completed, Tick

Is the oil free to flow? it did at Alkaid 2, in a poorer section of the same SMDB reservoir

Further to that

PANR has demonstrated it can achieve 50% frac efficiency in the targeted SMDB reservoir, 150% better than the poorer ZOI reservoir long term test, that flowed 505 barrels of salable liquids per day

So it is a minor risk, with a substantial reward

Trolls and shorts Beware, the final minor risk, oil flow rate, is only weeks away from mitigation, and there is no new capital required, so no easy out

Stas20

The point made is, an insider to a capital raise can entirely legally and ethically stop buying, which in turn effects price, but it is illegal to trade/sell, so it is the individual that is to blame in a breach, not the company. So there is no reason to distrust the company

Part 2

I was not inside for this capital raise, but have no issue with that, as the less people that know the less the chance of a leak, and as observed in this case suspicious selling may have occurred. Which to be clear is a “may”

Anytime a capital raise is sounded it has an immediate effect, as it is normal for those that have been taken inside to stop buying, which unbalances the demand side and often leads to a decline in SP. It is the enigma of capital raising, and subsequent churn, that it often induces a misprice on the fundamentals. In my own case I have addressed the unexpected dilution by adding 7% to my holdings today

With a runway cleared of capital raising anxiety, the SP should more accurately reflect Dubhe 1 results as they derisk the companies future prospects. To date both the positive Dubhe 1 pilot and horizontal outcomes have been muted, which points to a significant rerate on the acid test of flow rates

Part 1

Stas20 14 Sep 2025 12:30

Regardless of your current moving-along sentiment, there remains some mud thrown to clear up, lest it leave others misinformed on PANRs integrity.

IMO the company has made no error, they have prudently raised on good news flow. Which I would point out some investors have been very critical of their failure to do so in the past.

As I am sure you would know, a capital raise is a well planned activity, with many of the moving parts in place long before the go button is pressed. From there a sounding of intention will begin, with those who are invited, taken inside and bound to confidetiality. I have copied a generic version of that binding contract below, to highlight it has teeth (I capitalised last sentence)

Classification as an insider and obligations

This e-mail constitutes formal notice that you are considered to be in possession of inside information since the time and date recorded below.

You were informed by XXXXXXXXX that you are now an insider in possession of inside information and subject to a duty of confidentiality and trading restrictions in connection with a potential transaction of XXXXXX plc. You acknowledged that you are now an insider.

You must not disclose this information to anyone within your firm (other than to those who will be subject to these restrictions) or outside your firm. You are now restricted from trading or recommending for others to trade securities or derivatives with respect to which the information remains inside information.

YOU ARE AWARE THAT YOU AND YOUR FIRM MAY BE LIABLE FOR ADMINISTRATIVE AND / OR CRIMINAL PENALTIES SHOULD YOU FAIL TO COMPLY WITH THE ABOVE UNDERTAKINGS AND RESTRICTIONS.

So I invite consideration as to who the finger should point at, if there has been a breach of the insider terms. Surely not the company who have laid out strict terms, that fault must lie with the offender who breached the terms.

I am not saying breaches cannot occur, and agree with appropriate policing of the offenders that do commit the offences, but surely the dishonest label does not fall to the company.

Stas20

Dont worry I am still here with a significant holding, and very pleased to be so. So as is typical of traders you have got it wrong, my position has built over time based on the companies progress. Long-term holding suits my skillset best, identify a good prospect and stay with it and add as it proves up, and prove up it has

On the fundamental side it has proven up as expected, there were minor risks around whether Dubhe1 would match up to the expectations set by the seismic and regional well data. In this case it has proven to be significantly better than the prognosis. All the data points to a very good flow test outcome, so now I wait on that

I must say I find the comments of traders irritating often ill informed and agenda driven, poorly utilising AI in producing error ridden analysis

Dubhe 1H permit, for the horizontal section of the drill is now in place, with this mandatory prerequisite now met, we can expect drilling the horizontal is underway

http://aogweb.state.ak.us/DataMiner4/Forms/Wells.aspx