Member Info for Olderwiser

Taxi I see the financial situation very differently.

The end goal is an asset of value, that can either be sold or put into production, with 88e the amount of further investment is unknown, as is the outcome of that investment. More may well be spent for zero return, as has been the case in most of their exploration efforts to date

PANR are now in the fortunate position, of being able to know what needs to be invested, for a known outcome, spend xx for a return of xxxx

Most of the uncertainty has been resolved, the oil has been found, the quantities recoverable estimated, the flow rates modelled, the costings to production budgeted.

It is very different to be financing into production v financing pure exploration

Note PANR still have some exploration in the new leases to complete, but the core of the portfolio in Ahpun is production mode ready

Taxi

Assuming you are being serious !

Oil is lighter than water, so where it is, or has been mobile it always moves up, so you want your pump in the updip section

Stas20

OW is not kidding anyone, the directors cashed in some options that would otherwise have expired, in so doing contributing ~30p per share to the company coffers

It was a bad optic, the shorts made sure it was magnified to full effect, the damage done at the time was significant.

Now get back to the present, the BOD have joined into the recent capital raises, in particular the newly arrived D Hobbs, who arrived with a decent holding of his own and then has taken several opportunities to add with cash purchases in capital raisings and on market

So yes very much aligned with investors, this gentleman D Hobbs in particular, oil expert premier, quits pleasure yachting around the globe, becomes an independent director, quickly steps up to become executive chairman, and then doubles up on his shareholding with his own CASH. (Not the all too familiar granted shares and options, so common to oil explorers)

Start

"As at the date of appointment, David Hobbs has a total beneficial interest in 1,576,002 ordinary shares of Pantheon, equating to approximately 0.2% of the issued share capital."

Current

"Accordingly, David Hobbs has purchased 980,455 shares from IPGL at the Placement Price. Following the purchase, his ultimate beneficial ownership increases to 3,697,684 shares, representing 0.4% of the Company's total voting rights."

Triump1

The jury is not still out, the verdict is in and is clear

Olderwiser and Scot are not the same person, you really should apologize, for your error at this stage.

Also clear you were in for the annual fleecing of the gullible, not a long term investor, thanks to Brom for pointing this out, and his adjudication on the multiple account false accusation

I will now modify my last point

"Posters like yourself, take the cake, your investment has been a disaster,"

To

Posters like yourself, take the cake, the investment has been a disaster, for those that followed the pumpers agenda

Worth noting the pumpers have now mostly evaporated like an early morning mist, only a month or two ago investors could not see the ground beneath their feet, on account of the sheer volume of misinformation swirling in front of their eyes.

Do you ever feel remorse for those who you always new would be losing here ?

Triumph1

What foolishness is this

I am not Scot, this is well known, ask Brombarb

I live in the South pacific zone, first started posting on Hotcopper, as an 88e holder in 2015

Yes I did learn to use Part 1 and 2 from observing Scots posts, as it puts posts that exceed the word limit in the correct order for the reader, brilliant eh

The evidence is truly underwhelming, as the conclusion is entirely incorrect

Posters like yourself, take the cake, your investment has been a disaster, you were gifted all the information you needed to avoid the loss, and you think people should still respect your judgment

Seahawk

The LKA grant of reserves shows PANR have shown enough already. The combination of data topped off with the long term flow test results and subsequent analysis, is enough to justify development

PANR are in the enviable position of having further, and better and much larger prospects as well, so are now in a position to choose from several options.

The ZOI at Alk 2 is a very very small percentage of their resources. but is further developed, so can proceed faster.

As I alluded to in my earlier post, they can also choose to take on the greater risk/reward in the SMDB, and invest further in developing it further (flow test known reservoir, or explore high porosity reservoir in the new leases) either of which could yield exceptional at scale results.

Its a decision I am pleased is in the hands of a very capable and experienced team, that have aligned their interests with shareholders, by having meaningful holdings themselves

Part 2

Bear in mind the completion efficiency was only 20%, I would also like to see this clarified, as to what efficiency LKA have used in their modeling. If a low efficiency has been input to the base case, the probability of a better result is high.

It is going to be a complex decision for PANR to make on the next move.

Allocate resources to the tried and true of the ZOI with a lower RoR, or back the SMDB with no long term flow test, but a much higher estimated RoR. Who knows maybe a hybrid of both

Part 1

It is reassuring to see such a close alignment between PANR's estimates and the LKA IER

With LKA estimating 79.3 m barrels of salable liquids, over 78 wells, each well averages 1.017m barrels, interestingly very close to the conservative 1m PANR have used in their financial modeling, and the 1.2 m used in other models.

What gives this some context is the share price decline from £1.40 to £0.10, on the much exaggerated basis, and short thesis, that the ALK 2 long term flow test was not a commercial success, too much gas mostly condensate etc.

And the suggestion that these results would also apply to all the other reservoirs, (now disproven by the SMDB flow test results)

LKA have quite definitively now given their expert independent view that, the ZOI is a costed commercial success, expected to yield greater than 20% RoR.

Specifically 21.75% for the reserves based on the ALK 2 horizontal, and 27.69% for the contingent resources.

A first award of possible reserves of ~5m barrels, is a major affirmation, that the reservoir is viable, the tipping point to reserves being the demonstrated proven flow rates at ALK2 H. (IMO these are project FID away from being probable reserves)

Bear in mind these flow rates were sub optimal as the frack efficiency was only 20%, and PANR have demonstrated a 50% frack efficiency in their next attempt in the ALK 2 SMDB flow test. Which bodes well for the PANR modelling based on 40% frack efficiency

Looking at the GOR, there is a notable change, ALK2H showed 505 barrels and 2300mmcf/d, a GOR of 4560 cf/ barrel, while the LKA IER calculates out at 5341 cf/bl (423577984000cf/79.3 m bls). A bit higher than the actual results at ALK2H, but not a deal breaker

Simply put the worst of PANR wells are still million barrel wells, and million barrel wells stack up as viable as a stand alone reservoir, in the base case scenario.

To which can be added synergies with the stacked SMDB reservoir, with a PANR assessed 2m barrel recovery, with much lower GOR, and the potential to exceed base case towards high side case

The other notable ratio is the oil to NGLs, in ALK2H 180 bo plus 325 NGLs, ratio of 1:1.8 is compared to LKA IER of 43,300,000 bo plus 36,004,000 NGLs, ratio of 1: .83.

On the face of it this is a huge improvement, but I suspect it reflects a shift of condensate from the NGLs column to the oil column, clarification is required, as if a genuine change it will reflect in the 90% value attributed to the mix of oil, condensate and NGLs

This from the LKA IER stands out in regard to the possibly conservative nature of the assessment

“The estimates of reserves, resources and future net cash flow set forth in this report utilized the production results, completion efficiencies and fluid analysis from the long term production test of the Alkaid #2 horizontal.”

Worth noting

There are two issues today, one for the Namibian farm in partner Monitor, and the other the capital raise, all raised at .003c AU, in total 3,768,609385 shares added to the market today

https://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/02798807.pdf

Number of +securities proposed to be issued

3,291,974,839

https://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/02798809.pdf

Number of +securities proposed to be issued

476,634,546

7C.1 Proposed +issue date

1/5/2024

10:19

Copy paste of my 88e screen data at close, my platform sums both trading floors ASX and Cboe

Open

$0.003

Prev. Close

$0.003

Volume

37.34M

PE Ratio

0

Market Cap (M)

75.37

52 Week Range

$0.003 - $0.009

VWAP

0.00336

Dividend

$0.00

Dividend %

0%

Intraday Range

$0.003 - $0.004

Taxi

What I am pointing out, is the final last second trade is unusual, and in no way fairly represents the days activity.

Further I provide evidence that this trading pattern, has been used as a tool for manipulation by dishonest parties, in other situations, I have know way of establishing what has caused this unusual trade

Beverlybeaver

If you look at the close, its a weird one, all day no transactions at .004c, then a spike at the last second for an all day high at the close.

37m shares traded at a VWAP of .00336

Remember Alexdelarge (Gallagher)

Sec. & Exch. Comm'n v. Gallagher, 21-cv-8739 (PKC), 4-5 (S.D.N.Y. Sep. 26, 2023) (“B. Market Manipulation Allegations. The SEC also alleges that Gallagher engaged in multiple instances of manipulative trading in connection with at least two issuers, SPOM and BZWR. Specifically, it alleges that he “plac[ed] multiple buy orders at the end of the trading day to raise the stocks' price (‘marking the close') with the intent to mislead the public about the trajectory of the stocks' price and induce others to buy the stocks.” (Id. ¶ 9.) “Marking the close” refers to the practice of buying or selling stocks near the close of trading to influence the closing price of a stock.”)

https://casetext.com/case/sec-exch-commn-v-gallagher-10

Sharebel

You keep repeating your fairy tales, populated with devious shorts, manipulating MMs, and any other crackpot conspiracy theory you can manufacture.

Reality is the share has dropped on poor flow results, and low cash, after being hyped to the moon, by posters exactly like yourself

Taxi

Apply a different logic, if you have a losing trade, and someone offers you a deal to replace all your losing shares with cheaper ones, would you take it. and sell your more expensive ones.

The margin between the cheaper shares and what the market pays for the same number is yours. You have not got all your losses back, but you have got some cash back and have the same number of shares

Sharebel

Take your ramping hat off, and put on your thinking cap.

It does not matter what price they paid, that was a different mistake. This is their opportunity to recover a little of that, by playing the margin between the new issue price they have secured, and the market price. These people are more rational, and experienced than the average punter, you so try to play, with your MMs and conspiracy theories

Sharebel

Just rubbish from the resident pumper. The Sophs are more than happy with small margins, its their model, they play several a week, its not like 88e is the only game in town for them.

You can be sure any that got trapped in the previous raises are not happy

Sharebel

It is as simple as pie, some investor are selling and moving on

The sophs who already held shares, know they have an allocation coming, and are selling their current holdings, for whatever they can get above the issue price of .0016p. Then pocketing the difference well in advance of the rest of the herd of SOPHs arriving next week

Gemstar 07:09

You are getting worse

After the $120m is spent, PANR will be in production, with its own hot tap connection into the TAPs pipeline, it own oil and NGL processing plant, running 3 production wells.

Based on the latest SMDB flow results, and SLB modelling, generating sufficient free cash to self fund up to the 200,000 barrels a day of production, the full fields development is targeting

Go and research all the steps and detail for yourself, but answer this, what value do you think investing the money will have on the share price. Remember the target is market recognition of $5 to $10 per barrel

It is not in the potential dead end stage of exploration, they have found it, flowed it and assessed it as commercial, so now brining it into production

PS In case you are unaware the CB loan can be paid in shares or cash at PANRs discretion, so paying in shares is no drama against the rising share value

Ausnsw.

Yes I knew that, courageous men that laid down their lives, for a greater cause, in the ultimate act of self sacrifice.

A time for reflection for sure, selfless acts deserve our respect

Madenglish

So actively encouraging the punters to put their collective heads in the sand, block out the contrarian opinions, dont read books, only listen to the pumpers, especially the ones that were on full throttle at .004 and above